Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp $1,141, price $1,460, upside -21.9%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $664.47 – $1,505 · fair‑value band $896.41 – $1,899 · the $1,460 price screens above the $1,141 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Farmers & Merchants Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Farmers & Merchants Bank of Central California that provides various banking services to businesses and individuals in the United States. The company provides deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, time certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts.
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Farmers & Merchants Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Farmers & Merchants Bank of Central California that provides various banking services to businesses and individuals in the United States. The company provides deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, time certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts. It also offers a range of lending products, such as commercial, commercial and residential real estate, real estate construction, agribusiness, and consumer loans, as well as equipment leases and credit card services; commercial products, including term loans, lines of credit and other working capital financing, and letters of credit; and financing products, such as automobile financing, home improvement, and home equity lines of credit. In addition, the company provides specialized services that include credit card programs for merchants, lockbox and other collection services, account reconciliation, investment sweep, online account access, and electronic funds transfers through domestic and international wire and automated clearinghouse; online banking services; and investment products, such as mutual funds and annuities. Farmers & Merchants Bancorp was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Lodi, California.
Stock analysis
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB) currently trades at $1,460, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1,141, implying the stock looks roughly 28.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $1,305 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $1,460 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $242.51, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $896.41 (bear) to $1,899 (bull), the price of $1,460 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp reported revenue of $238M in FY2025 versus $180M in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was $93.6M in FY2025, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.0B · P/E ratio 10.7 · P/S ratio 4.20 · EPS (TTM) $136.49 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 39.3% · Return on equity 15.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −22%, FMCB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $896.41Fair Value $1,141Bull $1,899
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($81.96 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 15%, steady
Profit margin 2017 to 2022 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 52%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−17.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.9% a year for the price.
Compare Farmers & Merchants Bancorp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)40% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)54% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Is Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1,141 versus a price of $1,460, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FMCB?
Our model-based fair value for Farmers & Merchants Bancorp is $1,141 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,460.
What is the quality score of FMCB?
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1,141 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $896.41, optimistic scenario $1,899. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Farmers & Merchants Bancorp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1,141, about −22% upside versus a price of $1,460 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $896.41, optimistic scenario $1,899. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $238M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Farmers & Merchants Bancorp pay a dividend?
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp would have to grow free cash flow by -17.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FMCB use?
Our models discount Farmers & Merchants Bancorp at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Farmers & Merchants Bancorp that is -17.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Farmers & Merchants Bancorp grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies -17.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (-17.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.48 %: that much free cash flow Farmers & Merchants Bancorp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Farmers & Merchants Bancorp it is $1,141 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1,460. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Farmers & Merchants Bancorp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, FMCB trades above its calculated fair value: price $1,460, fair value $1,141, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FMCB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,460); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1,141). For Farmers & Merchants Bancorp the two are $319.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Farmers & Merchants Bancorp worth?
The market values Farmers & Merchants Bancorp at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1,460; our models calculate a fair value of $1,141 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FMCB?
Our models span a range for Farmers & Merchants Bancorp: cautious scenario $896.41, base $1,141, optimistic $1,899 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1,460). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FMCB?
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1,141 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.6, P/S 4.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.1%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FMCB from its 52-week high?
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp trades at $1,460, about 3% below its 52-week high of $1,505 and 49% above the low of $982.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1,141 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Farmers & Merchants Bancorp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Farmers & Merchants Bancorp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1,460, calculated fair value $1,141 (−22%), Quality Score 63/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FMCB calculated?
We run Farmers & Merchants Bancorp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1,141, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Farmers & Merchants Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1,460. Our model-based fair value is $1,141, about −22% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Farmers & Merchants Bancorp right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($896.41 to $1,899) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB) come from?
Earnings per share at Farmers & Merchants Bancorp grew +13.2 % a year from 2012 to 2022. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.9 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp
How large is the market capitalisation of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
The market capitalisation of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp is 4.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
Earnings per share at Farmers & Merchants Bancorp are $136.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
The dividend yield of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp is 1.7% (payout 17.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
The net margin of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp is 39.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
The operating margin of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp is 54.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
Revenue at Farmers & Merchants Bancorp is growing +6.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (FMCB)?
Earnings per share at Farmers & Merchants Bancorp are growing +7.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026