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Farmers National Banc Corp (FMNB) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $837M

FN Farmers National Banc Corp logo Farmers National Banc Corp FMNB · US
Price$15.69
Fair Value$11.98
Upside-23.7%
Quality53/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 29.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.85% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
Moderate moat 61/100
Evidence: High Range $8.99 – $14.98 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Share price +10.9% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.98). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$16.00 $9.29 Fair Value $11.98 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $9.29 – $16.00 · fair‑value band $8.99 – $14.98 · the $15.69 price screens above the $11.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.

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Analysis

Farmers National Banc Corp (FMNB) currently trades at $15.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.98, implying the stock looks roughly 23.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Farmers National Banc Corp generated revenue of $194M at a net margin of 29.5%. Revenue grew 27.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.6%. Net debt stands at $347M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $8.99 (bear case) to $14.98 (bull case); at $15.69, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -24%, FMNB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income $7.03 $7.79 $10.73 76
Gordon GGM $3.34 $6.02 $8.29 70
P/E Multiple $8.99 $11.98 $14.98 63
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.34 $6.02 $8.29 70
DDM Multi-Stage $3.34 $5.50 $6.43 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $8.99 $11.98 $14.98 63
P/B Multiple $8.61 $11.48 $14.35 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.10 $5.50 $8.20 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income $7.03 $7.79 $10.73 76

Widest divergence: Multiples ($11.48) versus Dividend Discount ($5.50). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $194M
Revenue growth (YoY) +27.7%
Net margin 29.5%
Return on equity 9.6%
Free cash flow $52.2M FY2025
P/E ratio 9.8
More key figures
Operating margin 46.1%
EPS (TTM) $1.45
Dividend yield 4.9%
Net debt $347M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 1
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 53
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 62
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Farmers National Banc Corp. operates as a bank holding company for The Farmers National Bank of Canfield that engages in the banking, trust, retirement consulting, insurance, and financial management businesses.

Full company description

Farmers National Banc Corp. operates as a bank holding company for The Farmers National Bank of Canfield that engages in the banking, trust, retirement consulting, insurance, and financial management businesses. It offers commercial and retail banking services, including checking, savings, and time deposit accounts; commercial, mortgage and installment, and home equity loans; home equity lines of credit; and night depository, safe deposit box, money order, bank check, automated teller machine, Internet banking, travel card, E bond transaction, brokerage, and other services. The company also provides personal and corporate trust services in the areas of estate settlement, trust administration, employee benefit plans, and retirement services; and various insurance products through licensed representatives, as well as invests in municipal securities. Farmers National Banc Corp. was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Canfield, Ohio.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Farmers National Banc Corp reported revenue of $272M in FY2025 versus $155M in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was $54.6M in FY2025, compounding +1.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$272M
Latest YoY
+0.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+15.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+12.9%
Avg. growth/yr (30Y)
+11.2%
Revenue +15.1%/yr
FY21 $155M
FY22 $178M
FY23 $213M
FY24 $269M
FY25 $272M
Net income +1.3%/yr
FY21 $51.8M
FY22 $60.6M
FY23 $49.9M
FY24 $45.9M
FY25 $54.6M

FMNB screens 24% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Farmers National Banc Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FMNB

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside −24% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 30% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 46% · Above median
Revenue growth 28% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.9% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.18× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.72× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 4.32× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 16.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.73× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 2 · sector 39
FUTURE 100 · sector 44
PAST 38 · sector 41
HEALTH 91 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 97 · sector 49

Insider activity: 78/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 6,175 IDR 6,087 IDR -1%
KB Financial Group 105560 184,400 KRW 213,797 KRW +16%
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 2,970 IDR 4,891 IDR +65%
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 4,310 IDR 7,841 IDR +82%
Banco Bradesco S.A BBD 5,120 ARS 10,240 ARS +100%
Shinhan Financial Group 055550 107,900 KRW 137,259 KRW +27%
Hana Financial Group 086790 136,800 KRW 193,969 KRW +42%
Lloyds Banking Group LYG 4,138 ARS 8,275 ARS +100%
Banco de Chile, CHILE 193.10 CLP 152.55 CLP -21%
Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB 59,400 VND 84,201 VND +42%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Farmers National Banc Corp (FMNB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.98 versus a price of $15.69, about −24% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FMNB?
Our model-based fair value for Farmers National Banc Corp is $11.98 (as of Jul 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $15.69.
What is the quality score of FMNB?
Farmers National Banc Corp has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Farmers National Banc Corp (FMNB)?
Farmers National Banc Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $194M (latest available figure, as of Jul 26, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of FMNB?
The net profit margin of Farmers National Banc Corp is about 29.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 29.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Farmers National Banc Corp pay a dividend?
Farmers National Banc Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.85% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 26, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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