Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref $2.01, price $12.10, upside -83.4%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $2.01 · Strongly overvalued (−83%)
!Quality 52/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +4.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 54.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers(4/8)
✓Wide moat66/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.26 – $28.85 · fair‑value band $1.06 – $2.51 · the $12.10 price screens above the $2.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Federal National Mortgage Association provides financing solutions for residential mortgages in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Single-Family and Multifamily. It offers mortgage acquisitions and securitizations; and credit risk and loss management services.
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Federal National Mortgage Association provides financing solutions for residential mortgages in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Single-Family and Multifamily. It offers mortgage acquisitions and securitizations; and credit risk and loss management services. The company also engages in mortgage securitization transactions, including lender swap, portfolio securitization, and structured securitization transactions; and credit risk and loss management services. Federal National Mortgage Association was incorporated in 1938 and is based in Washington, District Of Columbia.
Stock analysis
Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM) currently trades at $12.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.01, implying the stock looks roughly 502.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 21 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $1.06 (bear) to $2.51 (bull), the price of $12.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref reported revenue of $29.2B in FY2025 versus $36.6B in FY2021, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $14.4B in FY2025, compounding −10.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $14.0B · P/S ratio 0.47 · EPS (TTM) $0.0070 · Net margin 49.3% · Return on equity 13.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6% · Operating margin 75.8% · Revenue (TTM) $27.8B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at −83%, FNMAM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.06Fair Value $2.01Bull $2.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0051 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2017 to 2022 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.79% → 66%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Mortgage Finance · 92 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−83% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)54% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)76% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.50× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.6× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)46· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 25
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FNMAM
Frequently asked questions
Is Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.01 versus a price of $12.10, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FNMAM?
Our model-based fair value for Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref is $2.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.10.
What is the quality score of FNMAM?
Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.06, optimistic scenario $2.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.01, about −83% upside versus a price of $12.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.06, optimistic scenario $2.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $27.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref it is $2.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $12.10. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FNMAM trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.10, fair value $2.01, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FNMAM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.01). For Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref the two are $10.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref worth?
The market values Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref at about $14.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $12.10; our models calculate a fair value of $2.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FNMAM?
Our models span a range for Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref: cautious scenario $1.06, base $2.01, optimistic $2.51 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $12.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FNMAM from its 52-week high?
Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref trades at $12.10, about 57% below its 52-week high of $28.27 and 5% above the low of $11.57 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Rocket Companies, Inc, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, PennyMac Financial Services, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $12.10, calculated fair value $2.01 (−83%), Quality Score 52/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FNMAM calculated?
We run Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $12.10. Our model-based fair value is $2.01, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.06 to $2.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref
How large is the market capitalisation of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
The market capitalisation of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref is $14.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref is 0.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
Earnings per share at Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref are $0.0070. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
The net margin of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref is 49.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
The operating margin of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref is 75.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
Revenue at Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM)?
Earnings per share at Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref are growing −97.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM) generate?
The free cash flow of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref is $24.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref (FNMAM) carry?
The net debt of Federal National Mortgage Association AM Pref is $4.2T (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026