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Data-driven stock valuation

First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of First Northern Community Bancorp stock $11.62, price $17.01, that is 31.7% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

FN First Northern Community Bancorp logo Broad data Nov 7, 2026

First Northern Community Bancorp

FNRN · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 32% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 29.3% net margin (TTM)
Broad data
Quality 48/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +9.3 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Moderate moat 63/100 · thin data
Insiders bought $35,510 (6M) · sold $410,292
Fair value $11.62 · Overvalued
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$18.80 $5.75 Fair Value $11.62 Oct 2019 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.75 – $18.80 · fair‑value band $11.62 – $13.24 · the $17.01 price screens above the $11.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

First Northern Community Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for First Northern Bank of Dixon that provides commercial banking products and services to individuals, and small and medium sized businesses.

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The company offers deposit products, including demand, interest-bearing transaction, savings and money market, and non-brokered time deposits. It also provides commercial, commercial real estate, agriculture, residential mortgage, residential construction, and consumer loans.

In addition, the company provides debit and credit cards; investment and brokerage services; alternative investment products, and fiduciary and other financial services; equipment leasing, merchant card processing, payroll, and international banking services through third parties; and other customary banking services.

Further, it rents safe deposit boxes.

The company operates branches located in the cities of Auburn, Colusa, Davis, Dixon, Fairfield, Orland, Rancho Cordova, Roseville, Sacramento, Vacaville, West Sacramento, Winters, Willows, and Woodland; satellite banking office inside a retirement community in the city of Davis; and residential mortgage loan office in Davis.

First Northern Community Bancorp was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Dixon, California.

Stock analysis

First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN) currently trades at $17.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.62, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $17.36 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $17.01 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.54, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $11.62 (bear) to $13.24 (bull), the price of $17.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

First Northern Community Bancorp Common stock reported revenue of $88.4M in FY2025 versus $55.0M in FY2021, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was $21.1M in FY2025, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $281M Micro · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 3.61 · EPS (TTM) $1.33 · Net margin 29.3% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 39.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −32%, FNRN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.62 Fair Value $11.62 Bull $13.24
Price $17.01 · Downside -31.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.14 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $10.78 $11.62 $13.24 76
Gordon GGM n/a $0.0100 $0.0100 67
DDM Multi-Stage n/a $0.0100 $0.0100 65
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM n/a $0.0100 $0.0100 67
DDM Multi-Stage n/a $0.0100 $0.0100 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $12.65 $16.86 $21.08 63
P/B Multiple $13.39 $17.85 $22.31 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.38 $8.54 $12.75 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.78 $11.62 $13.24 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 35
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 35
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 25
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 67
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 90
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 54
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 77
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 75
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $35,510, on Aug 12, 2026. Over the same period, 3 people sold shares worth $410,292.

  • SaleMark C SchulzeDirector6× since May 8, 2026: 17,500 shares, avg. $17.64$308,621Nov 4, 2026
  • SaleRichard M MartinezDirector2,000 shares at $17.51$35,020Aug 13, 2026
  • BuyJean-Luc ServatDirector4× since Feb 11, 2026: 5,463 shares, avg. $15.71$85,813Aug 12, 2026
  • SaleJeremiah Zachary SmithPresident/CEO/Director, Director6,783 shares at $17.69$119,991May 15, 2026
  • SaleKevin SpinkEVP/Chief Financial Officer8,271 shares at $17.04$140,938May 4, 2026
  • BuyBarbara A HayesDirector171 shares at $14.70$2,514Feb 18, 2026
  • BuyRichard BedoyaDirector893 shares at $14.49$12,940Feb 11, 2026

Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.6% vs 11.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 31%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

FNRN screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −31.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.1% · Above median
Return on assets 1.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 29.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 39.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 13.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.32× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.61× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 54.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.9× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.14× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)68 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)44 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs FNRN
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs FNRN
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs FNRN
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs FNRN
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs FNRN
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs FNRN
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs FNRN
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs FNRN
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs FNRN
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs FNRN

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Frequently asked questions

Is First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.62 versus a price of $17.01, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FNRN?
Our model-based fair value for First Northern Community Bancorp is $11.62 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.01.
What is the quality score of FNRN?
First Northern Community Bancorp has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.62 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.62, optimistic scenario $13.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Northern Community Bancorp Common stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.62, about 32% lower versus a price of $17.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.62, optimistic scenario $13.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
First Northern Community Bancorp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $77.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Northern Community Bancorp it is $11.62 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $17.01. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is First Northern Community Bancorp Common stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, FNRN trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.01, fair value $11.62, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FNRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.62). For First Northern Community Bancorp the two are $5.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Northern Community Bancorp Common stock worth?
The market values First Northern Community Bancorp at about $281M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $17.01; our models calculate a fair value of $11.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FNRN?
Our models span a range for First Northern Community Bancorp: cautious scenario $11.62, base $11.62, optimistic $13.24 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $17.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FNRN?
First Northern Community Bancorp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 1.3, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 4.9.
What is the PEG ratio of FNRN?
The PEG ratio of First Northern Community Bancorp is 0.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Northern Community Bancorp (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FNRN from its 52-week high?
First Northern Community Bancorp trades at $17.01, about 10% below its 52-week high of $18.80 and 37% above the low of $12.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Northern Community Bancorp Common stock?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Northern Community Bancorp Common stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $17.01, calculated fair value $11.62 (−32%), Quality Score 48/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FNRN calculated?
We run First Northern Community Bancorp through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $11.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. First Northern Community Bancorp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $17.01. Our model-based fair value is $11.62, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Northern Community Bancorp Common stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band ($11.62 to $13.24), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN) come from?
Earnings per share at First Northern Community Bancorp grew +12.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin +2.4 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of First Northern Community Bancorp

How large is the market capitalisation of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
The market capitalisation of First Northern Community Bancorp is $281M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Northern Community Bancorp is 3.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
Earnings per share at First Northern Community Bancorp are $1.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
The net margin of First Northern Community Bancorp is 29.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Northern Community Bancorp is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Northern Community Bancorp is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
The operating margin of First Northern Community Bancorp is 39.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
Revenue at First Northern Community Bancorp is growing +13.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN)?
Earnings per share at First Northern Community Bancorp are growing +5.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN) generate?
The free cash flow of First Northern Community Bancorp is $5.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN) hold?
First Northern Community Bancorp holds more cash than debt, $140M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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