First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $302M
First Northern Community Bancorp
FNRN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −5.8% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.75 – $18.80 · fair‑value band $12.56 – $20.93 · the $16.59 price screens below the $16.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
First Northern Community Bancorp (FNRN) currently trades at $16.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.74, implying the stock looks roughly 0.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, First Northern Community Bancorp generated revenue of $75.7M at a net margin of 30.9%. Revenue grew 12.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $140M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.56 (bear case) to $20.93 (bull case); at $16.59, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 1%, FNRN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($16.74) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0100). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
First Northern Community Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for First Northern Bank of Dixon that provides commercial banking products and services to individuals, and small and medium sized businesses. The company offers deposit products, including demand, interest-bearing transaction, savings and money market, and non-brokered time deposits.
Full company description
First Northern Community Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for First Northern Bank of Dixon that provides commercial banking products and services to individuals, and small and medium sized businesses. The company offers deposit products, including demand, interest-bearing transaction, savings and money market, and non-brokered time deposits. It also provides commercial, commercial real estate, agriculture, residential mortgage, residential construction, and consumer loans. In addition, the company provides debit and credit cards; investment and brokerage services; alternative investment products, and fiduciary and other financial services; equipment leasing, merchant card processing, payroll, and international banking services through third parties; and other customary banking services. Further, it rents safe deposit boxes. The company operates branches located in the cities of Auburn, Colusa, Davis, Dixon, Fairfield, Orland, Rancho Cordova, Roseville, Sacramento, Vacaville, West Sacramento, Winters, Willows, and Woodland; satellite banking office inside a retirement community in the city of Davis; and residential mortgage loan office in Davis. First Northern Community Bancorp was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Dixon, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
First Northern Community Bancorp reported revenue of $88.4M in FY2025 versus $55.0M in FY2021, a compound +12.6%/yr. Reported net income was $21.1M in FY2025, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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