Freshpet Inc (FRPT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Freshpet Inc stock $44.09, price $64.39, that is 31.5% below the price, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.80 – $162.59 · fair‑value band $17.94 – $56.58 · the $64.39 price screens above the $44.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Freshpet, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe.
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It offers dog food, cat food, and dog treats under the Freshpet brand name; and fresh treats under the Dognation and Dog Joy brand names.
The company sells its products through a network of company-owned branded refrigerators, the Freshpet Fridges, as well as through various classes of retail, including grocery, mass, club, pet specialty, and international, as well as digital.
The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Bedminster, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Freshpet Inc (FRPT) currently trades at $64.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.09, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $98.21 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $64.39 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.85, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $17.94 (bear) to $56.58 (bull), the price of $64.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Freshpet Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $425M in FY2021, a compound +26.9%/yr. Reported net income was $139M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.6B Mid · P/E ratio 25.6 · P/S ratio 3.23 · EPS (TTM) $2.52 · Net margin 12.6% · Return on equity 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −32%, FRPT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$17.94Fair Value $44.09Bull$56.58
Price $64.39 · Downside -31.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.15 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors bought shares worth $413,809, most recently on Sep 14, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $33.2M. Buying cluster
BuyWalter N. GeorgeDirector3× since Feb 25, 2026: 3,630 shares, avg. $61.72$224,055Sep 14, 2026
SaleWilliam B. CyrChief Executive Officer, Director10× since May 11, 2026: 541,863 shares, avg. $61.30$33.2MAug 26, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyCraig D. SteeneckDirector2,000 shares at $47.83$95,660May 20, 2026
BuyDaryl G BrewsterDirector211 shares at $47.52$10,027May 20, 2026
BuyJacki Sue KelleyDirector1,000 shares at $48.05$48,050May 18, 2026
BuyDavid BieggerDirector1,000 shares at $49.14$49,142May 18, 2026
BuyTimothy R McLevishDirector3,000 shares at $48.67$146,010May 18, 2026
SaleScott James MorrisPresident5,142 shares at $62.33$320,501Dec 5, 2025
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.6% (2020) → 8.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+72.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +68.1% a year for the price and +5.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Freshpet shows revenue growth and margin gains from its fresh pet food approach, yet thin evidence across all factors leaves its competitive durability unclear amid ongoing cost pressures.
Main risk: Higher logistics costs combined with slower household penetration growth threaten to limit scale efficiencies and constrain margin gains in the fresh pet food operations.
Freshpet raised its full-year 2026 sales growth target to 10-12 percent and lifted adjusted EBITDA guidance after second-quarter revenue rose 15.5 percent with better margins. Higher logistics costs and slower household penetration growth continue to shape the outlook. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the shift toward fresh pet food generate enough scale and efficiency gains to ease those pressures or will the cost structure cap the upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−31.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)17.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)7.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Freshpet Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FRPT
Frequently asked questions
Is Freshpet Inc (FRPT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $44.09 versus a price of $64.39, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FRPT?
Our model-based fair value for Freshpet Inc is $44.09 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $64.39.
What is the quality score of FRPT?
Freshpet Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $44.09 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.94, optimistic scenario $56.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Freshpet Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $44.09, about 32% lower versus a price of $64.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.94, optimistic scenario $56.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Freshpet Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Freshpet Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +72.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FRPT use?
Our models discount Freshpet Inc at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Freshpet Inc that is +72.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Freshpet Inc (FRPT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Freshpet Inc grew +28.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +72.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Freshpet Inc (FRPT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Freshpet Inc (+72.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.34 %: that much free cash flow Freshpet Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Freshpet Inc it is $44.09 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $64.39. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Freshpet Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, FRPT trades above its calculated fair value: price $64.39, fair value $44.09, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FRPT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($64.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($44.09). For Freshpet Inc the two are $20.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Freshpet Inc worth?
The market values Freshpet Inc at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $64.39; our models calculate a fair value of $44.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FRPT?
Our models span a range for Freshpet Inc: cautious scenario $17.94, base $44.09, optimistic $56.58 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $64.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FRPT?
Freshpet Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $44.09 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 22.8 (reported for FY2025: 25.9). Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 3.0, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 19.2.
What is the PEG ratio of FRPT?
The PEG ratio of Freshpet Inc is 2.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Freshpet Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 17.6%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FRPT from its 52-week high?
Freshpet Inc trades at $64.39, about 25% below its 52-week high of $85.50 and 36% above the low of $47.39 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $44.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Freshpet Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Freshpet Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $64.39, calculated fair value $44.09 (−32%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FRPT calculated?
We run Freshpet Inc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $44.09 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Freshpet Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $64.39. Our model-based fair value is $44.09, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Freshpet Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($56.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($17.94 to $56.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Freshpet Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The market capitalisation of Freshpet Inc is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Freshpet Inc is 3.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Earnings per share at Freshpet Inc are $2.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The net margin of Freshpet Inc is 12.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Freshpet Inc is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Freshpet Inc is −0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The operating margin of Freshpet Inc is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Revenue at Freshpet Inc is growing +15.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Earnings per share at Freshpet Inc are growing +17.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Freshpet Inc (FRPT) carry?
The net debt of Freshpet Inc is $282M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 22.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026