Freshpet Inc (FRPT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Freshpet Inc $44.09, price $59.21, upside -25.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.80 – $170.06 · fair‑value band $18.22 – $56.58 · the $59.21 price screens above the $44.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Freshpet, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. It offers dog food, cat food, and dog treats under the Freshpet brand name; and fresh treats under the Dognation and Dog Joy brand names.
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Freshpet, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. It offers dog food, cat food, and dog treats under the Freshpet brand name; and fresh treats under the Dognation and Dog Joy brand names. The company sells its products through a network of company-owned branded refrigerators, the Freshpet Fridges, as well as through various classes of retail, including grocery, mass, club, pet specialty, and international, as well as digital. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Bedminster, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Freshpet Inc (FRPT) currently trades at $59.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.09, implying the stock looks roughly 34.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $98.21 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the $59.21 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $11.53, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $18.22 (bear) to $56.58 (bull), the price of $59.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Freshpet Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $425M in FY2021, a compound +26.9%/yr. Reported net income was $139M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.6B · P/E ratio 15.5 · P/S ratio 1.96 · EPS (TTM) $3.81 · Net margin 12.6% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.4% · Operating margin 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −26%, FRPT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $18.22Fair Value $44.09Bull $56.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.79 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−0.6% (2020) → 8.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+70.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +66.4% a year for the price and +5.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 646 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−27% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)15.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.78× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.85× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF271.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG4.28× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)78· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)70· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)84· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Freshpet Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FRPT
Frequently asked questions
Is Freshpet Inc (FRPT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $44.09 versus a price of $59.21, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FRPT?
Our model-based fair value for Freshpet Inc is $44.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $59.21.
What is the quality score of FRPT?
Freshpet Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $44.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.22, optimistic scenario $56.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Freshpet Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $44.09, about −26% upside versus a price of $59.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $18.22, optimistic scenario $56.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Freshpet Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Freshpet Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +70.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FRPT use?
Our models discount Freshpet Inc at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Freshpet Inc that is +70.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Freshpet Inc (FRPT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Freshpet Inc grew +28.2 % a year. The price currently implies +70.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Freshpet Inc (FRPT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Freshpet Inc (+70.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.37 %: that much free cash flow Freshpet Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Freshpet Inc it is $44.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $59.21. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Freshpet Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FRPT trades above its calculated fair value: price $59.21, fair value $44.09, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FRPT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($59.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($44.09). For Freshpet Inc the two are $15.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Freshpet Inc worth?
The market values Freshpet Inc at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $59.21; our models calculate a fair value of $44.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FRPT?
Our models span a range for Freshpet Inc: cautious scenario $18.22, base $44.09, optimistic $56.58 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $59.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FRPT?
Freshpet Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $44.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.3, P/B 2.8, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 17.9.
What is the PEG ratio of FRPT?
The PEG ratio of Freshpet Inc is 4.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Freshpet Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.6%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FRPT from its 52-week high?
Freshpet Inc trades at $59.21, about 31% below its 52-week high of $85.50 and 25% above the low of $47.39 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $44.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Freshpet Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Freshpet Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $59.21, calculated fair value $44.09 (−26%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FRPT calculated?
We run Freshpet Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $44.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Freshpet Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $59.21. Our model-based fair value is $44.09, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Freshpet Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($56.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($18.22 to $56.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Freshpet Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The market capitalisation of Freshpet Inc is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Freshpet Inc is 1.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Earnings per share at Freshpet Inc are $3.81 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The net margin of Freshpet Inc is 12.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Freshpet Inc is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Freshpet Inc is −0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
The operating margin of Freshpet Inc is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Revenue at Freshpet Inc is growing +13.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Freshpet Inc (FRPT)?
Earnings per share at Freshpet Inc are growing +79.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Freshpet Inc (FRPT) carry?
The net debt of Freshpet Inc is $282M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 22.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026