Freshpet, Inc (FRPT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $2.6B
Freshpet, Inc
FRPT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Share price +23.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 45% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($47.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($18.21 to $47.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.80 – $182.36 · fair‑value band $18.21 – $47.03 · the $66.91 price screens above the $36.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Freshpet, Inc (FRPT) currently trades at $66.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.65, implying the stock looks roughly 45.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Freshpet, Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 17.6%. Revenue grew 13.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.3%. Net debt stands at $282M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $18.21 (bear case) to $47.03 (bull case); at $66.91, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -45%, FRPT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($240.28) versus Growth DCF ($4.33). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Freshpet, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. It offers dog food, cat food, and dog treats under the Freshpet brand name; and fresh treats under the Dognation and Dog Joy brand names.
Full company description
Freshpet, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats in the United States, Canada, and Europe. It offers dog food, cat food, and dog treats under the Freshpet brand name; and fresh treats under the Dognation and Dog Joy brand names. The company sells its products through a network of company-owned branded refrigerators, the Freshpet Fridges, as well as through various classes of retail, including grocery, mass, club, pet specialty, and international, as well as digital. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Bedminster, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Freshpet, Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $425M in FY2021, a compound +26.9%/yr. Reported net income was $139M in FY2025.
FRPT screens 45% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Earnings Preview: Freshpet (FRPT) Q2 Earnings Expected to Decline
- Why Freshpet (FRPT) Stock Is Up Today
- Freshpet (FRPT) Exceeds Market Returns: Some Facts to Consider
- Freshpet Poised to Deliver on Q2, Full-Year Financial Targets, Oppenheimer Says
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 653 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,427 | ₹362.37 | -75% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,413 | ₹1,870 | -65% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,089 | ₹327.27 | -70% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 6,650 IDR | 15,757 IDR | +137% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,139,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -11% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹413.80 | ₹157.04 | -62% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 58,500 VND | 68,259 VND | +17% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,750 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +54% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,490 IDR | 4,355 IDR | -3% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 348,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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