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FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of FirstSun Capital Bancorp $31.16, price $38.37, upside -18.8%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US33767U1079

FC FirstSun Capital Bancorp logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

FirstSun Capital Bancorp

FSUN · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $31.16 · Overvalued (−19%)
!Quality 52/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Moderate moat 55/100
!Weak on valuation: 8 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$43.97 $24.00 Fair Value $31.16 Aug 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

50‑month range $24.00 – $43.97 · fair‑value band $23.37 – $38.96 · the $38.37 price screens above the $31.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

FirstSun Capital Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Sunflower Bank, National Association that provides commercial and consumer banking and financial services to small and medium-sized companies in the United States. It operates through Banking and Mortgage Operations segments.

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FirstSun Capital Bancorp operates as the bank holding company for Sunflower Bank, National Association that provides commercial and consumer banking and financial services to small and medium-sized companies in the United States. It operates through Banking and Mortgage Operations segments. The company offers noninterest and interest-bearing deposit accounts, checking and savings accounts, money market and term certificate accounts, and treasury management products and services, as well as certificates of deposit. It also provides commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate loans, residential mortgage loans, and small business administration loans, as well as consumer loans, including car, boat, and other recreational vehicle loans. In addition, the company offers residential real estate loans comprising 1-4 family loans, home equity loans, and multi-family loans, as well as credit card accounts, overdrafts, and other revolving loans. Further, it provides remote deposit and cash management products; wealth management services include private banking, wealth planning, investment management, and trust and retirement plan services; and wealth management and trust products, including personal trust and agency accounts, employee benefit and retirement related trust and agency accounts, investment management and advisory agency accounts, and foundation and endowment trust and agency accounts. Additionally, the company offers online banking and bill payment services, online cash management, safe deposit box rentals, and debit card and ATM card services; and packaging and securitization of loans to governmental agencies. It operates through branches in Texas, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, California, and Washington. The company was formerly known as Sunflower Financial, Inc. and changed its name to FirstSun Capital Bancorp in June 2017. FirstSun Capital Bancorp was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Stock analysis

FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock (FSUN) currently trades at $38.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.16, implying the stock looks roughly 23.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $28.85 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $38.37 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $17.51, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $23.37 (bear) to $38.96 (bull), the price of $38.37 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock reported revenue of $570M in FY2025 versus $287M in FY2021, a compound +18.7%/yr. Reported net income was $97.9M in FY2025, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.7B · P/E ratio 10.6 · P/S ratio 1.83 · EPS (TTM) $3.40 · Net margin 17.2% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% · Operating margin 29.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −19%, FSUN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $23.37 Fair Value $31.16 Bull $38.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.49 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $20.74 $21.90 $23.56 71
P/E Multiple $21.64 $28.85 $36.07 63
P/B Multiple $27.45 $36.59 $45.74 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $21.64 $28.85 $36.07 63
P/B Multiple $27.45 $36.59 $45.74 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $13.07 $17.51 $26.14 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $20.74 $21.90 $23.56 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 26
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 47
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 22%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+15.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.4% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+18.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+17.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+15.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+13.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+11.4%

FSUN screens 23% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −19% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 9% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 24% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 29% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.47× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.19× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 16.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)8 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)51 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)34 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.80 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.65 HK$64.29 +24%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹738.60 ₹418.52 −43%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FSUN

Frequently asked questions

Is FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.16 versus a price of $38.37, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FSUN?
Our model-based fair value for FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock is $31.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.37.
What is the quality score of FSUN?
FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.37, optimistic scenario $38.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.16, about −19% upside versus a price of $38.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.37, optimistic scenario $38.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $404M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FSUN use?
Our models discount FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock grew +13.7 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.59 %: that much free cash flow FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock it is $31.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $38.37. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, FSUN trades above its calculated fair value: price $38.37, fair value $31.16, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FSUN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.16). For FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock the two are $7.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock worth?
The market values FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $38.37; our models calculate a fair value of $31.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FSUN?
Our models span a range for FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock: cautious scenario $23.37, base $31.16, optimistic $38.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $38.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FSUN?
FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 8.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
Balance-sheet figures for FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FSUN from its 52-week high?
FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock trades at $38.37, about 7% below its 52-week high of $41.40 and 27% above the low of $30.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $38.37, calculated fair value $31.16 (−19%), Quality Score 52/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FSUN calculated?
We run FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $31.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $38.37. Our model-based fair value is $31.16, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock

How large is the market capitalisation of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
The market capitalisation of FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock is 1.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
Earnings per share at FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock are $3.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
The net margin of FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock is 17.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
The operating margin of FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock is 29.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
Revenue at FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN)?
Earnings per share at FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock are growing −8.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does FirstSun Capital Bancorp (FSUN) hold?
FirstSun Capital Bancorp Common Stock holds more cash than debt, $616M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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