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Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme (GEA) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · FR · Market cap €91.7M

GD Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme GEA · PA
Price€75.00
Fair Value€64.63
Upside-13.8%
Quality78/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 8.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.28% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: High Range €48.47 – €80.79 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price −10.2% over the past month.

A strong business, but screening 14% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from €48.47 (bear) to €80.79 (bull), base €64.63. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 78/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€96.03 €58.83 Fair Value €64.63 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €58.83 – €96.03 · fair‑value band €48.47 – €80.79 · the €75.00 price screens above the €64.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme (GEA) currently trades at €75.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €64.63, implying the stock looks roughly 13.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme generated revenue of €40.2M at a net margin of 8.4%. Revenue declined 11.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €40.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €48.47 (bear case) to €80.79 (bull case); at €75.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at -14%, GEA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €113.07 €130.78 €157.61 80
Residual Income €36.24 €36.30 €32.88 76
Rev-Margin DCF €87.06 €102.17 €121.81 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €111.26 €130.08 €160.98 38
Owner Earnings €57.82 €63.11 €71.79 31
5Y Revenue Exit €87.06 €100.08 €119.00 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €87.94 €101.59 €119.87 41
5Y P/E Exit €94.04 €112.10 €134.05 38
10Y Revenue Exit €97.65 €107.65 €117.60 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €98.70 €108.45 €118.04 37
10Y P/E Exit €101.87 €114.06 €125.25 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €20.93 €27.02 €30.89 54
EPV €55.04 €57.22 €58.98 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €11.14 €11.91 €13.04 70
DDM Multi-Stage €11.14 €13.02 €15.28 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €48.47 €64.63 €80.79 63
P/S Multiple €39.24 €52.32 €65.40 58
P/B Multiple €39.24 €52.32 €65.40 55
EV/EBIT €80.12 €94.51 €108.91 53
EV/EBITDA €71.89 €83.54 €95.20 54
EV/Revenue €67.75 €80.96 €94.17 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €25.35 €33.97 €50.71 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €113.07 €130.78 €157.61 80
Rev-Margin DCF €87.06 €102.17 €121.81 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €36.24 €36.30 €32.88 76
ROIC Compounder €55.07 €57.66 €60.13 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €34.23 €48.90 €63.57 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€107.65) versus Dividend Discount (€11.91). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €40.2M
Revenue growth (YoY) -11.7%
Net margin 8.4%
Return on equity 6.2%
Free cash flow €11.2M FY2025
P/E ratio 30.7
More key figures
Operating margin 10.1%
EPS (TTM) €3.08
Dividend yield 2.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +20.6%
Net cash €40.5M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 78/100

Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme provides electronic toll collection systems in France, rest of the European Union, rest of Europe, Asia, the Americas, and Africa.

Full company description

Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme provides electronic toll collection systems in France, rest of the European Union, rest of Europe, Asia, the Americas, and Africa. The company offers automatic ticket issuing machines; automatic payment machines; optical vehicle separators and classifiers, which are optical devices that detect and classify vehicles passing through toll lanes based on shape and axle count; TGR-IP ETC antennas, which identify vehicles and process toll transactions using CEN-compliant tags; and on-board units, which transmit and collect data for toll collection. It provides tolling solutions comprising electronic and manual toll collection, multi lane free flow, and GNSS toll enforcement services; and parking revenue collection solutions, which include hardware and software products. In addition, the company offers maintenance services. It exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Meylan, France.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme reported revenue of €39.4M in FY2025 versus €33.1M in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was €3.4M in FY2025, compounding +29.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 69/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€39.4M
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (16Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.0%
Revenue +4.4%/yr
FY21 €33.1M
FY22 €37.9M
FY23 €40.2M
FY24 €49.5M
FY25 €39.4M
Net income +29.4%/yr
FY21 €1.2M
FY22 €2.3M
FY23 €1.6M
FY24 €2.9M
FY25 €3.4M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −10.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share −1.7 pp

of which total revenue −2.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.9 pp

EBIT margin −12.2 pp
Tax rate +1.4 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

GEA screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Ricoh Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEA

Peer Group

Business Equipment & Supplies · 72 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −14% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth -12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Business Equipment & Supplies median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 27.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.90× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.63× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 9.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 16.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 4.35× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 15 · sector 33
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 25 · sector 21
HEALTH 100 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 46 · sector 52

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Business Equipment & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Ricoh Company RICO ¥15.33 ¥17.99 +17%
GRG Banking Equipment Co 002152 ¥10.08 ¥6.90 -32%
Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc 603899 ¥21.45 ¥30.05 +40%
XGD Inc 300130 ¥19.90 ¥15.67 -21%
DOMS Industries Limited DOMS ₹2,260 ₹782.96 -65%
Hengbao Co 002104 ¥9.20 ¥1.66 -82%
Shaanxi Fenghuo Electronics Co 000561 ¥6.99 ¥1.75 -75%
Shenzhen Comix Group 002301 ¥7.30 ¥3.11 -57%
Shandong New Beiyang Information Technology Co 002376 ¥6.00 ¥1.73 -71%
Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co 603187 ¥11.92 ¥21.12 +77%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme (GEA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €64.63 versus a price of €75.00, about −14% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GEA?
Our model-based fair value for Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme is €64.63 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €75.00.
What is the quality score of GEA?
Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme (GEA)?
Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €40.2M (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GEA?
The net profit margin of Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme is about 8.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme pay a dividend?
Grenobloise d'Electronique et d'Automatismes Société Anonyme currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.03% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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