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Gecina (GECFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Gecina $86.20, price $72.83, upside +18.4%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Real Estate · US · ISIN FR0010040865

G Gecina logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Gecina

GECFF · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $86.20 · Undervalued (+18.4%)
!Quality 50/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 51.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!7.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 58/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$132.01 $53.60 Fair Value $86.20 Aug 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $53.60 – $132.01 · fair‑value band $64.65 – $111.13 · the $72.83 price screens below the $86.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Gecina is a leading operator that fully integrates all real estate expertise, owning, managing, and developing a unique prime portfolio valued at 17.6bn euros as at December 31, 2025. Strategically located in the most central areas of Paris and the Paris Region, Gecina's portfolio includes 1.2 million sq.m of office space and nearly 5,300 residential units.

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Gecina is a leading operator that fully integrates all real estate expertise, owning, managing, and developing a unique prime portfolio valued at 17.6bn euros as at December 31, 2025. Strategically located in the most central areas of Paris and the Paris Region, Gecina's portfolio includes 1.2 million sq.m of office space and nearly 5,300 residential units. By combining long-term value creation with operational excellence, Gecina offers high-quality, sustainable living and working environments tailored to the evolving needs of urban users. As a committed operator, Gecina enhances its assets with high-value services and dynamic property and asset management, fostering vibrant communities. Through its YouFirst brand, Gecina places user experience at the heart of its strategy. In line with its social responsibility commitments, the Foundation Gecina supports initiatives across four core pillars: disability inclusion, environmental protection, cultural heritage, and housing access. Gecina is a French real estate investment trust (SIIC) listed on Euronext Paris, and is part of the SBF 120, CAC Next 20 and CAC Large 60 indices. Gecina is also recognized as one of the top-performing companies in its industry by leading sustainability rankings (GRESB, Sustainalytics, MSCI, ISS-ESG, and CDP) and is committed to radically reducing its carbon emissions by 2030. Gecina was incorporated in 10th February 1959 in France.

Stock analysis

Gecina (GECFF) currently trades at $72.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $86.20, implying the stock looks roughly 15.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $118.50 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the $72.83 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $98.65, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $64.65 (bear) to $111.13 (bull), the price of $72.83 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Gecina reported revenue of €859M in FY2025 versus €755M in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was €448M in FY2025, compounding −14.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $6.8B · P/E ratio 10.4 · P/S ratio 5.43 · EPS (TTM) $7.00 · Dividend yield 7.6% · Net margin 52.2% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 18%, GECFF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $64.65 Fair Value $86.20 Bull $111.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.13 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $119.59 $118.50 $122.14 76
EV/EBITDA $56.28 $98.65 $141.02 65
EV/EBIT $91.13 $145.12 $199.11 64
All 7 models by family
Multiples
P/S Multiple $63.57 $84.76 $105.95 58
P/B Multiple $86.79 $115.73 $144.66 55
EV/EBIT $91.13 $145.12 $199.11 64
EV/EBITDA $56.28 $98.65 $141.02 65
EV/Revenue n/a $20.44 $47.83 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $80.33 $107.64 $160.66 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $119.59 $118.50 $122.14 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 35
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 30
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 26/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +13.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.6%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.77% → 75%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 87% above its own trend.

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (78 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BXP, Inc BXP $63.40 $38.36 −39%
Vornado Realty Trust VNORP $50.11 $49.54 −1%
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE $49.93 $98.03 +96%
MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL €12.26 €9.69 −21%
Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP $11.65 $2.97 −75%
Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU 1.22 SGD 1.26 SGD +3%
Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ $28.65 $8.26 −71%
Keppel DC REIT AJBU 2.12 SGD 2.70 SGD +27%
DEXUS DXS A$5.43 A$4.09 −25%
Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC $34.23 $35.64 +4%

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Gecina · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gecina Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GECFF

Frequently asked questions

Is Gecina (GECFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $86.20 versus a price of $72.83, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GECFF?
Our model-based fair value for Gecina is $86.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $72.83.
What is the quality score of GECFF?
Gecina has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gecina (GECFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $86.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $64.65, optimistic scenario $111.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gecina stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $86.20, about +18% upside versus a price of $72.83 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $64.65, optimistic scenario $111.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gecina (GECFF)?
Gecina reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €865M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Gecina pay a dividend?
Gecina currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Gecina (GECFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gecina it is $86.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $72.83. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gecina stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GECFF trades below its calculated fair value: price $72.83, fair value $86.20, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GECFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($72.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($86.20). For Gecina the two are $13.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gecina worth?
The market values Gecina at about $6.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $72.83; our models calculate a fair value of $86.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GECFF?
Our models span a range for Gecina: cautious scenario $64.65, base $86.20, optimistic $111.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $72.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is GECFF from its 52-week high?
Gecina trades at $72.83, about 22% below its 52-week high of $93.32 and at the low of $72.83 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $86.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gecina?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, Vornado Realty Trust, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gecina stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $72.83, calculated fair value $86.20 (+18%), Quality Score 50/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GECFF calculated?
We run Gecina through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $86.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Gecina currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gecina (GECFF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $72.83. Our model-based fair value is $86.20, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gecina right now?
As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Gecina

How large is the market capitalisation of Gecina (GECFF)?
The market capitalisation of Gecina is $6.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Gecina (GECFF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Gecina is 10.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Gecina (GECFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gecina is 5.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gecina (GECFF)?
Earnings per share at Gecina are $7.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gecina (GECFF)?
The dividend yield of Gecina is 7.6% (payout 78.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gecina (GECFF)?
The net margin of Gecina is 52.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gecina (GECFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gecina is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gecina (GECFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gecina is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gecina (GECFF)?
The operating margin of Gecina is 75.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast are earnings growing at Gecina (GECFF)?
Earnings per share at Gecina are growing −28.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Gecina (GECFF) generate?
The free cash flow of Gecina is −€491M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Gecina (GECFF) carry?
The net debt of Gecina is €6.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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