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Glencore plc (GLENN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 17, 2026: fair value of Glencore plc MXN 171, price MXN 121, upside +41.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Glencore plc
GLENN · MXUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value 170.63 MXN · Undervalued (+41.4%)
!Quality 56/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.2% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!0.1% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Narrow moat 22/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range 127.97 MXN to 365.02 MXN
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 67.91 MXN – 136.75 MXN · fair‑value band 127.97 MXN – 365.02 MXN · the 120.66 MXN price screens below the 170.63 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Glencore plc engages in the production, refinement, processing, storage, transport, and marketing of metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities.
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Glencore plc engages in the production, refinement, processing, storage, transport, and marketing of metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities. It engages in the production and marketing of copper, cobalt, lead, nickel, zinc, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, aluminum, alumina, and iron ore; and coal, crude oil, refined products, and natural gas, as well as oil exploration and production and refining and distribution. The company is also involved in marketing and distributing physical commodities sourced from third party producers to industrial consumers, including the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries. In addition, the company provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities. Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Glencore plc (GLENN) currently trades at 120.66 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 170.63 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 29.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 40.32 MXN per share, and 1 of the 14 models we run sit above the 120.66 MXN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 26.25 MXN, and 13 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 127.97 MXN (bear) to 365.02 MXN (bull), the price of 120.66 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Glencore plc reported revenue of $248B in FY2025 versus $204B in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was $363M in FY2025, compounding −48.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 1.4T MXN (≈ $77.8B) · P/E ratio 227.7 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) 0.5300 MXN · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 0.1% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 41%, GLENN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (2.80 MXN to 121.07 MXN). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 127.97 MXN
Fair Value 170.63 MXN
Bull 365.02 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2722 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
41.29 MXN
38.89 MXN
37.60 MXN
76
Owner Earnings
12.41 MXN
35.80 MXN
70.10 MXN
71
Growth-Adj P/E
5.74 MXN
8.20 MXN
10.66 MXN
67
All 14 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
12.41 MXN
35.80 MXN
70.10 MXN
71
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
3.82 MXN
10.16 MXN
13.28 MXN
65
PEG = 1.0
1.96 MXN
2.80 MXN
3.65 MXN
57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
16.95 MXN
35.17 MXN
55.90 MXN
66
DDM Multi-Stage
16.95 MXN
26.25 MXN
36.19 MXN
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
7.17 MXN
9.56 MXN
11.94 MXN
63
P/S Multiple
7.17 MXN
9.56 MXN
11.94 MXN
58
P/B Multiple
7.17 MXN
9.56 MXN
11.94 MXN
55
EV/EBIT
18.79 MXN
36.86 MXN
54.94 MXN
63
EV/EBITDA
81.94 MXN
121.07 MXN
160.20 MXN
66
EV/Revenue
11.56 MXN
31.70 MXN
51.84 MXN
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
30.09 MXN
40.32 MXN
60.17 MXN
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
41.29 MXN
38.89 MXN
37.60 MXN
76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
5.74 MXN
8.20 MXN
10.66 MXN
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
56/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Profitability
32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
99
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
83
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
53/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−39.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−39.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 1%
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Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- ERG and Glencore sign a PPA for the supply of over 800 GWh in Poland
- Glencore (LSE:GLEN) Stock Trades At a Premium After Its 104% 5 Year Run
- UBS upgrades Glencore as commodity gains boost earnings outlook
- Suspended Glencore Executive Told Radiant ‘Say Nothing on Email’
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 354 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 61.10 SAR | 67.21 SAR | +10% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥17.08 | ¥19.15 | +12% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹588.95 | ₹647.85 | +10% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥57.18 | ¥29.56 | −48% |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,116,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −42% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 521.00 | kr 464.45 | −11% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥35.19 | ¥38.71 | +10% |
| Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN | C$12.06 | C$4.46 | −63% |
| Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 | ¥46.90 | ¥23.62 | −50% |
| Vedanta Limited VEDL | ₹266.35 | ₹655.92 | +146% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Glencore plc (GLENN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 170.63 MXN versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of 120.66 MXN, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GLENN?
Our model-based fair value for Glencore plc is 170.63 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 17, 2026): 120.66 MXN.
What is the quality score of GLENN?
Glencore plc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Glencore plc (GLENN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 170.63 MXN (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 127.97 MXN, optimistic scenario 365.02 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Glencore plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 170.63 MXN, about +41% upside versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of 120.66 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 127.97 MXN, optimistic scenario 365.02 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
Glencore plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $248B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Glencore plc pay a dividend?
Glencore plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Glencore plc it is 170.63 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of 120.66 MXN. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Glencore plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, GLENN trades below its calculated fair value: price 120.66 MXN, fair value 170.63 MXN, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GLENN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (120.66 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (170.63 MXN). For Glencore plc the two are 49.97 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Glencore plc worth?
The market values Glencore plc at about 1.4T MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is 120.66 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 170.63 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GLENN?
Our models span a range for Glencore plc: cautious scenario 127.97 MXN, base 170.63 MXN, optimistic 365.02 MXN per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price 120.66 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GLENN?
Glencore plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 227.7 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 170.63 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 2.2, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 11.2.
What is the PEG ratio of GLENN?
The PEG ratio of Glencore plc is 0.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Glencore plc (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GLENN from its 52-week high?
Glencore plc trades at 120.66 MXN, about 12% below its 52-week high of 136.75 MXN and 55% above the low of 78.00 MXN (as of Jul 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 170.63 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Glencore plc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Glencore plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price 120.66 MXN, calculated fair value 170.63 MXN (+41%), Quality Score 56/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GLENN calculated?
We run Glencore plc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 170.63 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Glencore plc currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 17, 2026 and stands at 120.66 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 170.63 MXN, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Glencore plc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (127.97 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (127.97 MXN to 365.02 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Glencore plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
The market capitalisation of Glencore plc is 1.4T MXN (≈ $77.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Glencore plc is 0.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
Earnings per share at Glencore plc are 0.5300 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 227.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
The dividend yield of Glencore plc is 0.1% (payout 32.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
The net margin of Glencore plc is 0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Glencore plc is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Glencore plc is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Glencore plc (GLENN)?
The operating margin of Glencore plc is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Glencore plc (GLENN)?
Revenue at Glencore plc is growing +14.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Glencore plc (GLENN)?
Earnings per share at Glencore plc are growing −60.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Glencore plc (GLENN) generate?
The free cash flow of Glencore plc is −$290M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Glencore plc (GLENN) carry?
The net debt of Glencore plc is $36.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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