Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop IDR 443, price IDR 1,160, upside -61.8%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Gowa Makassar Tourism Development Tbk engages in the real estate and property development businesses in Indonesia. The company develops residential, commercial and tourism areas, including housing, land lots, and recreational facilities; and engages in construction activities.
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PT Gowa Makassar Tourism Development Tbk engages in the real estate and property development businesses in Indonesia. The company develops residential, commercial and tourism areas, including housing, land lots, and recreational facilities; and engages in construction activities. It also provides land lots to investors for private development of residential and commercial; full municipality services by township management; and maintenance of facilities and infrastructures services. PT Gowa Makassar Tourism Development Tbk was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Makassar, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD) currently trades at 1,160 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 443.47 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 161.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 566.97 IDR per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the 1,160 IDR price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 338.37 IDR, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 323.91 IDR (bear) to 589.35 IDR (bull), the price of 1,160 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop reported revenue of 289B IDR in FY2025 versus 139B IDR in FY2021, a compound +20.1%/yr. Reported net income was 32.2B IDR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3T IDR (≈ $74.1M) · P/E ratio 87.2 · P/S ratio 9.72 · EPS (TTM) 13.31 IDR · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 11.2% · Return on equity 1.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at −62%, GMTD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 323.91 IDRFair Value 443.47 IDRBull 589.35 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (9.77 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−27.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−63.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−64.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 12%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 18.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+47.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +43.5% a year for the price.
Compare Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 577 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−62% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−51% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−66% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)87.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.54× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.40× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA60.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)6· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 443.47 IDR versus a price of 1,160 IDR, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GMTD?
Our model-based fair value for Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop is 443.47 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,160 IDR.
What is the quality score of GMTD?
Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 443.47 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 323.91 IDR, optimistic scenario 589.35 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 443.47 IDR, about −62% upside versus a price of 1,160 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 323.91 IDR, optimistic scenario 589.35 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 245B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop pay a dividend?
Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop would have to grow free cash flow by +47.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GMTD use?
Our models discount Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop that is +47.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +47.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (+47.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.17 %: that much free cash flow Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop it is 443.47 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1,160 IDR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GMTD trades above its calculated fair value: price 1,160 IDR, fair value 443.47 IDR, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GMTD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,160 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (443.47 IDR). For Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop the two are 716.53 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop worth?
The market values Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop at about 1.3T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1,160 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 443.47 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GMTD?
Our models span a range for Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop: cautious scenario 323.91 IDR, base 443.47 IDR, optimistic 589.35 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1,160 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GMTD?
Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 87.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 443.47 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 5.4, EV/EBITDA 60.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GMTD from its 52-week high?
Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop trades at 1,160 IDR, about 65% below its 52-week high of 3,332 IDR and at the low of 1,160 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 443.47 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1,160 IDR, calculated fair value 443.47 IDR (−62%), Quality Score 33/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GMTD calculated?
We run Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 443.47 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 1,160 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 443.47 IDR, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (589.35 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (323.91 IDR to 589.35 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD) come from?
Earnings per share at Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop grew −20.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −17.5 %, EBIT margin −2.6 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop
How large is the market capitalisation of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
The market capitalisation of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop is 1.3T IDR (≈ $74.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop is 9.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
Earnings per share at Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop are 13.31 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 87.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
The dividend yield of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop is 0.3% (payout 25.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
The net margin of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop is 11.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop is 1.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
The operating margin of Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop is −51.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
Revenue at Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop is growing −65.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD)?
Earnings per share at Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop are growing +17.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop (GMTD) hold?
Gowa Makassar Tourism Develop holds more cash than debt, 86.9B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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