Danone S.A (GPDNF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Danone S.A $61.83, price $66.00, upside -6.3%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.23 – $89.90 · fair‑value band $40.93 – $84.87 · the $66.00 price screens above the $61.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Danone S.A. operates in the food and beverage industry in Europe, Ukraine, North America, China, North Asia, the Oceania, Latin America, rest of Asia, Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The company operates through Essential Dairy & Plant-Based, Specialized Nutrition, and Waters segments.
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Danone S.A. operates in the food and beverage industry in Europe, Ukraine, North America, China, North Asia, the Oceania, Latin America, rest of Asia, Africa, Turkey, the Middle East, and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The company operates through Essential Dairy & Plant-Based, Specialized Nutrition, and Waters segments. It produces and distributes yogurts, dairy products, coffee creations and drinks, beverages, plant-based products, ice creams, frozen desserts, and cheese products. The company also provides specialized nutrition, including formulas and complementary feeding for babies and young children; and special medical purposes food for children and adults. In addition, it offers tube feeding products and oral nutritional supplements. Further, the company provides mineral waters from natural sources, waters infused with natural fruit extracts, fruit juices, and vitamins. The company offers its products under the Actimel, Activia, Alpro, Aptamil, Danette, Danio, Danonino, evian, Nutricia, Nutrilon, Volvic, Danone, Oikos, YoPRO, International Delight, SToK, Silk, So Delicious, Cow & Gate, Bebelac, SGM, Dumex, HiQ, Nursie, Phosphatine, Mizone, Blédina, Nutrison, Fortimel, Neocate, Nutridrink, AQUA, Bonafont, Salus, Hayat, Sirma, Font Vella, Lanjarón, and Zywiec Zdroj brands.It distributes its products through retail chains and traditional market outlets; convenience stores; hotels, restaurants, and coffee outlets; hospitals, clinics, and pharmacies; and e-commerce channels. The company was formerly known as Groupe Danone and changed its name to Danone S.A. in April 2009. Danone S.A. was incorporated in 1899 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Stock analysis
Danone S.A (GPDNF) currently trades at $66.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $61.83, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $59.80 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the $66.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $19.94, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $40.93 (bear) to $84.87 (bull), the price of $66.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Danone S.A reported revenue of €27.3B in FY2025 versus €24.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was €1.8B in FY2025, compounding −1.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $48.0B · P/E ratio 20.2 · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) $3.27 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −6%, GPDNF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $40.93Fair Value $61.83Bull $84.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7713 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +5.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 14%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 90% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.7% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 620 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−14.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.8% · Above median
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.2× · Pricier than median
P/B2.51× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Danone S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GPDNF
Frequently asked questions
Is Danone S.A (GPDNF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $61.83 versus a price of $66.00, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of GPDNF?
Our model-based fair value for Danone S.A is $61.83 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $66.00.
What is the quality score of GPDNF?
Danone S.A has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $61.83 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $40.93, optimistic scenario $84.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Danone S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $61.83, about −6% upside versus a price of $66.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $40.93, optimistic scenario $84.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
Danone S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €27.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Danone S.A pay a dividend?
Danone S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Danone S.A would have to grow free cash flow by +3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GPDNF use?
Our models discount Danone S.A at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Danone S.A that is +3.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Danone S.A (GPDNF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Danone S.A grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies +3.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Danone S.A (GPDNF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Danone S.A (+3.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.26 %: that much free cash flow Danone S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Danone S.A it is $61.83 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $66.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Danone S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, GPDNF trades above its calculated fair value: price $66.00, fair value $61.83, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPDNF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($66.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($61.83). For Danone S.A the two are $4.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Danone S.A worth?
The market values Danone S.A at about $48.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $66.00; our models calculate a fair value of $61.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPDNF?
Our models span a range for Danone S.A: cautious scenario $40.93, base $61.83, optimistic $84.87 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $66.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GPDNF?
Danone S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $61.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 2.5, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 11.1.
What is the PEG ratio of GPDNF?
The PEG ratio of Danone S.A is 1.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Danone S.A (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.8%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GPDNF from its 52-week high?
Danone S.A trades at $66.00, about 27% below its 52-week high of $89.90 and 4% above the low of $63.32 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $61.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Danone S.A?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, Nestlé India Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Danone S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $66.00, calculated fair value $61.83 (−6%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPDNF calculated?
We run Danone S.A through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $61.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Danone S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $66.00. Our model-based fair value is $61.83, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Danone S.A right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($40.93 to $84.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Danone S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
The market capitalisation of Danone S.A is $48.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Danone S.A is 1.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
Earnings per share at Danone S.A are $3.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
The dividend yield of Danone S.A is 3.4% (payout 68.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
The net margin of Danone S.A is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Danone S.A is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Danone S.A is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
The operating margin of Danone S.A is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
Revenue at Danone S.A is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Danone S.A (GPDNF)?
Earnings per share at Danone S.A are growing −2.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Danone S.A (GPDNF) carry?
The net debt of Danone S.A is €11.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026