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Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 3, 2026: fair value of Great Portland Estates Plc $2.54, price $4.01, upside -36.7%, quality 32 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Great Portland Estates Plc
GPEAF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $2.54 · Strongly overvalued (−36.7%)
!Quality 32/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +6.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 120.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!2.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Narrow moat 30/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.21 – $11.41 · fair‑value band $1.90 – $3.17 · the $4.01 price screens above the $2.54 fair value. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Great Portland Estates Plc is a FTSE 250 property investment and development company, owning a 2.4 billion pounds portfolio of London real estate. They aim to deliver value by unlocking the often hidden potential in central London commercial real estate, a market we know inside out.
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Great Portland Estates Plc is a FTSE 250 property investment and development company, owning a 2.4 billion pounds portfolio of London real estate. They aim to deliver value by unlocking the often hidden potential in central London commercial real estate, a market we know inside out. They reposition properties, let off low rents and rich with opportunities for improvement, into more valuable spaces that are attractive to a diverse range of occupiers. The firm operate in highly cyclical markets. The firm's strategy is to capture the opportunities that this cyclicality creates through our active business model, flexing our activities in tune with changing market conditions, increasing and reducing operational risk as appropriate, whilst always maintaining low financial leverage. Their culture lies at the heart of our ability to achieve our strategic goals. It is entrepreneurial and pragmatic with an emphasis on cross-disciplinary teamwork. They also believe that building strong and enduring relationships with our occupiers, service partners, joint venture partners and other stakeholders is critical to our success. Great Portland Estates Plc was incorporated in 1959 in United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF) currently trades at $4.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.54, 36.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $5.61 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $4.01 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.12, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.90 (bear) to $3.17 (bull), the price of $4.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Great Portland Estates Plc reported revenue of £118M in FY2026 versus £84.2M in FY2022, a compound +8.8%/yr. Reported net income was £155M in FY2026, compounding −1.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 10.3 · EPS (TTM) $0.5100 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 131% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −37%, GPEAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.90
Fair Value $2.54
Bull $3.17
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2181 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$5.43
$5.61
$6.06
76
Gordon GGM
$0.8000
$1.27
$1.76
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.8000
$1.12
$1.43
67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.8000
$1.27
$1.76
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.8000
$1.12
$1.43
67
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$1.89
$2.52
$3.15
58
P/B Multiple
$6.48
$8.64
$10.80
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.50
$4.69
$7.00
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$5.43
$5.61
$6.06
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
32/100
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Profitability
36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
34
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7.6% vs −17.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 21%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
GPEAF screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with BXP, Inc →
Compare Great Portland Estates Plc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Office · 69 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BXP, Inc BXP | $63.40 | $38.36 | −39% |
| Vornado Realty Trust VNORP | $50.11 | $49.54 | −1% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE | $49.93 | $98.03 | +96% |
| MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL | €12.26 | €9.69 | −21% |
| Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP | $11.65 | $2.97 | −75% |
| Gecina GFC | €63.75 | €75.43 | +18% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU | 1.22 SGD | 1.26 SGD | +3% |
| Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ | $28.65 | $8.26 | −71% |
| Keppel DC REIT AJBU | 2.12 SGD | 2.70 SGD | +27% |
| DEXUS DXS | A$5.43 | A$4.09 | −25% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.54 versus the last price from Jul 3, 2026 of $4.01, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GPEAF?
Our model-based fair value for Great Portland Estates Plc is $2.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 3, 2026): $4.01.
What is the quality score of GPEAF?
Great Portland Estates Plc has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.54 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.90, optimistic scenario $3.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Great Portland Estates Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.54, about −37% upside versus the last price from Jul 3, 2026 of $4.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.90, optimistic scenario $3.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
Great Portland Estates Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £128M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Great Portland Estates Plc pay a dividend?
Great Portland Estates Plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Great Portland Estates Plc it is $2.54 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.01. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Great Portland Estates Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, GPEAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.01, fair value $2.54, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GPEAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.54). For Great Portland Estates Plc the two are $1.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Great Portland Estates Plc worth?
The market values Great Portland Estates Plc at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.01; our models calculate a fair value of $2.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GPEAF?
Our models span a range for Great Portland Estates Plc: cautious scenario $1.90, base $2.54, optimistic $3.17 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GPEAF?
Great Portland Estates Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 0.8, P/S 12.6, EV/EBITDA 67.7.
What is the PEG ratio of GPEAF?
The PEG ratio of Great Portland Estates Plc is 2.08 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Great Portland Estates Plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Great Portland Estates Plc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value BXP, Inc, Vornado Realty Trust, Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc, MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Great Portland Estates Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.01, calculated fair value $2.54 (−37%), Quality Score 32/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GPEAF calculated?
We run Great Portland Estates Plc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.54, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Great Portland Estates Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 3, 2026 and stands at $4.01. Our model-based fair value is $2.54, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Great Portland Estates Plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.17). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Great Portland Estates Plc grew −16.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.4 %, EBIT margin +4.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −16.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Great Portland Estates Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
The market capitalisation of Great Portland Estates Plc is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Great Portland Estates Plc is 10.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
Earnings per share at Great Portland Estates Plc are $0.5100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
The dividend yield of Great Portland Estates Plc is 2.0% (payout 16.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
The net margin of Great Portland Estates Plc is 131% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Great Portland Estates Plc is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Great Portland Estates Plc is −1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
The operating margin of Great Portland Estates Plc is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
Revenue at Great Portland Estates Plc is growing +28.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF)?
Earnings per share at Great Portland Estates Plc are growing +10.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF) generate?
The free cash flow of Great Portland Estates Plc is −£31.4M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Great Portland Estates Plc (GPEAF) carry?
The net debt of Great Portland Estates Plc is £857M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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