GRAIL, LLC (GRAL) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $3.1B · ISIN US3847471014
What is GRAIL, LLC really worth?
GRAIL, LLC
GRAL · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 465% above our fair value of $14.21.
As of Aug 23, 2026, the fair value of GRAIL, LLC is $14.21 per share against a price of $80.34, so the fair value sits 82% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 23, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +8.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($9.38 to $17.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
27‑month range $12.57 – $116.06 · fair‑value band $9.38 – $17.76 · the $80.34 price screens above the $14.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 23, 2026.
Analysis
GRAIL, LLC (GRAL) currently trades at $80.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.21, implying the stock looks roughly 465.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $156M. Revenue grew 28.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −16.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $152M. Fundamentals as of Aug 23, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.38 (bear case) to $17.76 (bull case); at $80.34, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 168% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −82%, GRAL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 23, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
GRAIL, Inc., a commercial-stage healthcare company, provides multi-cancer early detection testing and services in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
GRAIL, Inc., a commercial-stage healthcare company, provides multi-cancer early detection testing and services in the United States and internationally. It offers Galleri, a cancer screening test for asymptomatic individuals over 50 years of age; and a diagnostic aid for cancer tests to accelerate diagnostic resolution for patients with clinical suspicion of cancer. The company also provides development services, including support for ongoing clinical studies, pilot testing, research, and therapy development. In addition, its precision oncology portfolio consists of n RUO-targeted methylation-based platform that enables applications for disease prognostication, risk stratification, minimal residual disease detection, and recurrence and relapse monitoring. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GRAIL, LLC reported revenue of $147M in FY2025 versus $14.6M in FY2021, a compound +78.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$408M in FY2025.
GRAL screens 465% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →
Peer Group
Diagnostics & Research · 129 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 23, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO | $630.70 | $308.19 | −51% |
| Danaher Corporation DHR | $207.66 | $103.88 | −50% |
| WuXi AppTec Co 2359 | HK$189.30 | HK$150.16 | −21% |
| Lonza Group LONN | CHF 576.60 | CHF 259.80 | −55% |
| IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX | $556.69 | $255.77 | −54% |
| Agilent Technologies, Inc A | $149.93 | $61.53 | −59% |
| Waters Corporation WAT | $416.15 | $121.96 | −71% |
| IQVIA Holdings IQV | $236.66 | $132.17 | −44% |
| Illumina, Inc ILMN | $215.59 | $95.51 | −56% |
| Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD | $1,419 | $615.78 | −57% |
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