Green Thumb Industries Inc (GTBIF) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $1.7B
Green Thumb Industries Inc
GTBIF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $12.87 to $11.57 (−10.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −4.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 67% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.57). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.81 – $33.65 · fair‑value band $8.57 – $14.57 · the $6.91 price screens below the $11.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Green Thumb Industries Inc (GTBIF) currently trades at $6.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.57, implying the stock looks roughly 67.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Green Thumb Industries Inc generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 10.1%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.6%. Net debt stands at $83.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.57 (bear case) to $14.57 (bull case); at $6.91, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at 67%, GTBIF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($23.88) versus Dividend Discount ($0.7200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Green Thumb Industries Inc. manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells of cannabis products for medical and adult-use in the United States. It operates through two segments, Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods.
Full company description
Green Thumb Industries Inc. manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells of cannabis products for medical and adult-use in the United States. It operates through two segments, Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods. The company offers cannabis flower; processed and packaged products, including pre-rolls, concentrates, vapes, tinctures, edibles, topicals, capsules, tinctures, and other cannabis-related products under the &Shine, Beboe, Dogwalkers, Doctor Solomon's, Good Green, incredibles, RYM, and RHYTHM brands. It distributes its products to third-party licensed retail customers; and sells finished products to third-party licensed retail cannabis stores. Green Thumb Industries Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Green Thumb Industries Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $894M in FY2021, a compound +7.1%/yr. Reported net income was $114M in FY2025, compounding +10.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.19 | ¥25.94 | -51% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,933 | ₹989.50 | -49% |
| Divi's Laboratories Limited DIVISLAB | ₹7,316 | ₹1,943 | -73% |
| Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited TORNTPHARM | ₹4,763 | ₹1,329 | -72% |
| PharmaEssentia Corporation 6446 | 1,285 TWD | 221.01 TWD | -83% |
| Cipla Limited CIPLA | ₹1,439 | ₹1,001 | -30% |
| Zydus Lifesciences Limited ZYDUSLIFE | ₹1,151 | ₹703.32 | -39% |
| Lupin Limited LUPIN | ₹2,443 | ₹2,477 | +1% |
| Mankind Pharma Limited MANKIND | ₹2,484 | ₹983.11 | -60% |
| Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited DRREDDY | ₹1,211 | ₹874.79 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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