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Data-driven stock valuation

Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Fractyl Health, Inc stock $0.43, price $1.33, upside -67.7%, quality 9 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US

FH Fractyl Health, Inc logo Thin data Oct 20, 2026

Fractyl Health, Inc

GUTS · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 68% below what the stock costs today.

Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Fair value $0.4300 · Strongly overvalued (−67.7%)
Quality 9/100
Weak Growth (revenue YoY −22.5 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/5)
Narrow moat 21/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$154.20 $0.0007 Fair Value $0.4300 Feb 2024 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

33‑month range $0.0007 – $154.20 · fair‑value band $0.3200 – $0.6400 · the $1.33 price screens above the $0.4300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.

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Company profile

Fractyl Health, Inc., a metabolic therapeutics company, develops therapies for the treatment of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and obesity.

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It develops Revita DMR System (Revita), an outpatient procedural therapy designed to durably modify duodenal dysfunction, a pathologic consequence of a high fat and high sugar diet, which can initiate T2D and obesity in humans.

The company also develops Rejuva, a novel adeno-associated virus delivered pancreatic gene therapy platform that is designed to enable long-term remission of T2D and obesity by durably altering metabolic hormone function in the pancreatic islet cells of patients.

Fractyl Health, Inc. was formerly known as Fractyl Laboratories Inc. and changed its name to Fractyl Health, Inc. on June 09, 2021. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS) currently trades at $1.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4300, 67.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $0.3200 (bear) to $0.6400 (bull), the price of $1.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 9/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Fractyl Health, Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$141M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $18.3M Micro · EPS (TTM) $−9.37 · Return on equity −778% · Return on assets (EBIT) −70.0% · Revenue (TTM) $3.0K · Revenue growth (YoY) −57.1% · Free cash flow −$90.9M · Net cash $19.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 21 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 95% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −68%, GUTS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.3200 Fair Value $0.4300 Bull $0.6400
Price $1.33 · Upside -67.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $0.3200 $0.4300 $0.6400 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3200 $0.4300 $0.6400 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 9/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 9
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 25
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 7
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

GUTS screens overvalued: fair value 68% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 601 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 9 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −68.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −116.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −57.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $782.04 $1,275 +63% vs GUTS
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $514.65 $566.12 +10% vs GUTS
argenx SE ARGX $825.03 $907.53 +10% vs GUTS
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,391,000 KRW 1,530,100 KRW +10% vs GUTS
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$52.65 HK$57.92 +10% vs GUTS
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $232.68 $217.88 −6% vs GUTS
CSL Limited CSL A$196.30 A$179.28 −9% vs GUTS
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $354.47 $280.94 −21% vs GUTS
Celltrion, Inc 068270 180,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −59% vs GUTS
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $56.93 $19.01 −67% vs GUTS

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Fractyl Health, Inc · Fair Value
$0.4300 −68%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Fractyl Health, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GUTS

Frequently asked questions

Is Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4300 versus a price of $1.33, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GUTS?
Our model-based fair value for Fractyl Health, Inc is $0.4300 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.33.
What is the quality score of GUTS?
Fractyl Health, Inc has a Quality Score of 9/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4300 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3200, optimistic scenario $0.6400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Fractyl Health, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4300, about −68% upside versus a price of $1.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3200, optimistic scenario $0.6400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS)?
Fractyl Health, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0K (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Fractyl Health, Inc it is $0.4300 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of $1.33. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Fractyl Health, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, GUTS trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.33, fair value $0.4300, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GUTS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4300). For Fractyl Health, Inc the two are $0.9000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Fractyl Health, Inc worth?
The market values Fractyl Health, Inc at about $18.3M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is $1.33; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GUTS?
Our models span a range for Fractyl Health, Inc: cautious scenario $0.3200, base $0.4300, optimistic $0.6400 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price $1.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Fractyl Health, Inc (as of Oct 20, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 9/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GUTS from its 52-week high?
Fractyl Health, Inc trades at $1.33, about 95% below its 52-week high of $28.44 and at the low of $1.33 (as of Oct 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Fractyl Health, Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Fractyl Health, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price $1.33, calculated fair value $0.4300 (−68%), Quality Score 9/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GUTS calculated?
We run Fractyl Health, Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Fractyl Health, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was $1.33. Our model-based fair value is $0.4300, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Fractyl Health, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (9/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.3200 to $0.6400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Fractyl Health, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS)?
The market capitalisation of Fractyl Health, Inc is $18.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS)?
Earnings per share at Fractyl Health, Inc are $−9.37. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Fractyl Health, Inc is −778% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Fractyl Health, Inc is −70.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS)?
Revenue at Fractyl Health, Inc is growing −57.1% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS) generate?
The free cash flow of Fractyl Health, Inc is −$90.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Fractyl Health, Inc (GUTS) hold?
Fractyl Health, Inc holds more cash than debt, $19.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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