HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of HSBC Holdings plc BRL 73.07, price BRL 125, upside -41.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$24.38 – R$137.59 · fair‑value band R$65.95 – R$85.62 · the R$125.28 price screens above the R$73.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking.
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HSBC Holdings plc engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Hong Kong, UK, Corporate and Institutional Banking, and International Wealth and Premier Banking. The Hong Kong segment is involved in the retail banking and wealth and commercial banking of HSBC Hong Kong and Hang Seng Bank. The UK segment engages in UK retail banking and wealth, as well as first direct and M&S Bank, UK Commercial Banking, and HSBC Innovation Bank. The Corporate and Institutional Banking segment is involved in transaction banking and capital markets. The International Wealth and Premier Banking segment is involved in the business comprising premier banking outside of Hong Kong and the UK, its private bank, asset management, and insurance businesses. The company was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34) currently trades at R$125.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$73.07, 41.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$105.64 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$125.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$50.56, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$65.95 (bear) to R$85.62 (bull), the price of R$125.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
HSBC Holdings plc reported revenue of $66.2B in FY2025 versus $63.6B in FY2021, a compound +1.0%/yr. Reported net income was $22.3B in FY2025, compounding +12.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$2.2T (≈ $412B) · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 5.38 · EPS (TTM) R$7.84 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 33.7% · Return on equity 11.6% · Return on assets 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −42%, H1SB34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$65.95Fair Value R$73.07Bull R$85.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$5.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+16.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.3% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 43 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−19.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.6% · Below median
Return on assets0.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)35.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)50.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Is HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$73.07 versus a price of R$125.28, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of H1SB34?
Our model-based fair value for HSBC Holdings plc is R$73.07 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$125.28.
What is the quality score of H1SB34?
HSBC Holdings plc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$73.07 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$65.95, optimistic scenario R$85.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HSBC Holdings plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$73.07, about −42% upside versus a price of R$125.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$65.95, optimistic scenario R$85.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
HSBC Holdings plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $63.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does HSBC Holdings plc pay a dividend?
HSBC Holdings plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.60% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HSBC Holdings plc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.0 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of H1SB34 use?
Our models discount HSBC Holdings plc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.57, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HSBC Holdings plc that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HSBC Holdings plc grew +1.0 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HSBC Holdings plc (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.09 %: that much free cash flow HSBC Holdings plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HSBC Holdings plc it is R$73.07 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$125.28. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HSBC Holdings plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, H1SB34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$125.28, fair value R$73.07, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of H1SB34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$125.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$73.07). For HSBC Holdings plc the two are R$52.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HSBC Holdings plc worth?
The market values HSBC Holdings plc at about R$2.2T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$125.28; our models calculate a fair value of R$73.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about H1SB34?
Our models span a range for HSBC Holdings plc: cautious scenario R$65.95, base R$73.07, optimistic R$85.62 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$125.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of H1SB34?
HSBC Holdings plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$73.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 2.1, P/S 6.5.
What is the PEG ratio of H1SB34?
The PEG ratio of HSBC Holdings plc is 0.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
Balance-sheet figures for HSBC Holdings plc (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 11.6%, debt of 1.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is H1SB34 from its 52-week high?
HSBC Holdings plc trades at R$125.28, about 9% below its 52-week high of R$137.59 and 48% above the low of R$84.77 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$73.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HSBC Holdings plc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, China Construction Bank Corporation, Bank of America Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HSBC Holdings plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$125.28, calculated fair value R$73.07 (−42%), Quality Score 63/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of H1SB34 calculated?
We run HSBC Holdings plc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$73.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HSBC Holdings plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$125.28. Our model-based fair value is R$73.07, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HSBC Holdings plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$85.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of HSBC Holdings plc
How large is the market capitalisation of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
The market capitalisation of HSBC Holdings plc is R$2.2T (≈ $412B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HSBC Holdings plc is 5.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
Earnings per share at HSBC Holdings plc are R$7.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
The dividend yield of HSBC Holdings plc is 0.6% (payout 9.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
The net margin of HSBC Holdings plc is 33.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HSBC Holdings plc is 11.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the return on assets of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
The return on assets (ROA) of HSBC Holdings plc is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to everything the company owns. Harder to inflate than return on equity because debt does not boost it.
What is the operating margin of HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
The operating margin of HSBC Holdings plc is 50.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
Revenue at HSBC Holdings plc is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34)?
Earnings per share at HSBC Holdings plc are growing +2.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HSBC Holdings plc (H1SB34) carry?
The net debt of HSBC Holdings plc is $93.9B (fiscal year 2019, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026