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Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Hochschild Mining plc $7.73, price $7.10, upside +8.9%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Hochschild Mining plc
HCHDF · USNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $7.73 · Fairly valued (+8.9%)
✓Quality 72/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.8% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 81/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.5527 – $10.99 · fair‑value band $5.66 – $9.67 · the $7.10 price screens below the $7.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
Hochschild Mining plc, a precious metals company, engages in the exploration, mining, processing, and sale of gold and silver deposits.
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Hochschild Mining plc, a precious metals company, engages in the exploration, mining, processing, and sale of gold and silver deposits. The company's flagship asset includes the 100% owned Inmaculada gold and silver underground mine consisting of 40 mining concessions covering an area of approximately 20,000 hectare located in the Ayacucho Department, southern Peru. It is also involved in the power generation and transmission activities. It serves in Switzerland, Canada, South Korea, Germany, Chile, Finland, the United States, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Peru, Brazil, and the United Kingdom. The company was founded in 1911 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF) currently trades at $7.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.73, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.2%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $7.64 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the $7.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.9400, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.66 (bear) to $9.67 (bull), the price of $7.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Hochschild Mining plc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $811M in FY2021, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was $202M in FY2025, compounding +27.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.9B · P/E ratio 18.2 · P/S ratio 3.11 · EPS (TTM) $0.3900 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 17.1% · Return on equity 31.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 9%, HCHDF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.66
Fair Value $7.73
Bull $9.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2495 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$5.19
$8.35
$13.27
79
Growth DCF
$5.20
$8.21
$12.80
77
Owner Earnings
$4.18
$6.70
$10.63
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$5.19
$8.35
$13.27
79
Owner Earnings
$4.18
$6.70
$10.63
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$3.44
$5.16
$7.34
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$6.40
$10.93
$16.41
74
5Y P/E Exit
$4.87
$7.94
$11.28
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.96
$5.70
$8.09
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$5.90
$9.72
$15.15
67
10Y P/E Exit
$4.93
$7.64
$11.15
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$2.67
$10.17
$13.77
64
Lynch FV
$2.47
$3.53
$4.59
61
PEG = 1.0
$2.47
$3.53
$4.59
57
EPV
$5.67
$6.54
$7.29
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.2600
$0.5200
$0.7800
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.2600
$0.4500
$0.5500
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$5.00
$6.67
$8.34
63
P/S Multiple
$2.59
$3.45
$4.31
58
P/B Multiple
$3.16
$4.21
$5.26
55
EV/EBIT
$7.23
$9.58
$11.93
66
EV/EBITDA
$7.79
$10.32
$12.86
67
EV/Revenue
$2.59
$3.63
$4.66
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.7000
$0.9400
$1.40
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.20
$8.21
$12.80
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.44
$5.19
$7.32
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.26
$2.98
$5.40
73
ROIC Compounder
$6.05
$7.43
$8.95
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$3.98
$5.69
$7.40
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
72/100
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Profitability
61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
73
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
32
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
65
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+64.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+63.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 29%
2025 sits 304% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.3% a year for the price and +8.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+49.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.0%
Watch HCHDF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (84 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Hochschild Mining (LSE:HOC) Stock Gets Fair Value Boost As Analysts Weigh Costs And Targets
- Hochschild Mining PLC (HCHDF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and EBITDA ...
- Hochschild Strikes Gold, Literally
- Hochschild Mining (LSE:HOC) Stock Fair Value Moves Lower As Analysts Trim Targets
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN | 4,240 IDR | 878.20 IDR | −79% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $17.00 | $16.30 | −4% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $32.05 | $26.98 | −16% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $10.19 | $14.83 | +46% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$39.53 | C$43.48 | +10% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$40.20 | C$15.84 | −61% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $32.19 | $32.48 | +1% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | $21.82 | $6.07 | −72% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥18.02 | ¥13.23 | −27% |
| Al Masane Al Kobra Mining Company 1322 | 70.50 SAR | 77.55 SAR | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.73 versus a price of $7.10, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HCHDF?
Our model-based fair value for Hochschild Mining plc is $7.73 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.10.
What is the quality score of HCHDF?
Hochschild Mining plc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.73 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.66, optimistic scenario $9.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hochschild Mining plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.73, about +9% upside versus a price of $7.10 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $5.66, optimistic scenario $9.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
Hochschild Mining plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Hochschild Mining plc pay a dividend?
Hochschild Mining plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.85% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hochschild Mining plc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.7 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HCHDF use?
Our models discount Hochschild Mining plc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hochschild Mining plc that is +8.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hochschild Mining plc grew +13.7 % a year. The price currently implies +8.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hochschild Mining plc (+8.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.63 %: that much free cash flow Hochschild Mining plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hochschild Mining plc it is $7.73 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $7.10. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hochschild Mining plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, HCHDF trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.10, fair value $7.73, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCHDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.73). For Hochschild Mining plc the two are $0.6330 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hochschild Mining plc worth?
The market values Hochschild Mining plc at about $3.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $7.10; our models calculate a fair value of $7.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCHDF?
Our models span a range for Hochschild Mining plc: cautious scenario $5.66, base $7.73, optimistic $9.67 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $7.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HCHDF?
Hochschild Mining plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.2 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 5.5, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
What is the PEG ratio of HCHDF?
The PEG ratio of Hochschild Mining plc is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hochschild Mining plc (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 31.6%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCHDF from its 52-week high?
Hochschild Mining plc trades at $7.10, about 35% below its 52-week high of $10.99 and 71% above the low of $4.15 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hochschild Mining plc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hochschild Mining plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $7.10, calculated fair value $7.73 (+9%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCHDF calculated?
We run Hochschild Mining plc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hochschild Mining plc currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $7.10. Our model-based fair value is $7.73, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hochschild Mining plc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Hochschild Mining plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
The market capitalisation of Hochschild Mining plc is $3.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hochschild Mining plc is 3.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
Earnings per share at Hochschild Mining plc are $0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
The dividend yield of Hochschild Mining plc is 0.8% (payout 15.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
The net margin of Hochschild Mining plc is 17.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hochschild Mining plc is 31.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hochschild Mining plc is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
The operating margin of Hochschild Mining plc is 40.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
Revenue at Hochschild Mining plc is growing +19.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF)?
Earnings per share at Hochschild Mining plc are growing +94.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hochschild Mining plc (HCHDF) carry?
The net debt of Hochschild Mining plc is $22.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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