HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $1.8B

Below-average quality, screening 159% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($24.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• The model range is unusually wide ($24.30 to $95.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.65 – $42.94 · fair‑value band $24.30 – $95.67 · the $12.51 price screens below the $32.40 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

HUTCHMED (China) Limited (HCM) currently trades at $12.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.40, implying the stock looks roughly 159.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, HUTCHMED (China) Limited generated revenue of $549M at a net margin of 83.3%. Revenue declined 16.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 45.3%. Net debt stands at $26.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $24.30 (bear case) to $95.67 (bull case); at $12.51, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at 159%, HCM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($73.60) versus Asset-Based ($4.82). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

HUTCHMED (China) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted therapeutics and immunotherapies to treat cancer and immunological diseases in Hong Kong, the United States, and internationally.

Full company description

HUTCHMED (China) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted therapeutics and immunotherapies to treat cancer and immunological diseases in Hong Kong, the United States, and internationally. It provides Fruquintinib, a selective and potent oral inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor receptors for treatment of colorectal cancer (CRC), breast cancer, gastric cancer (GC), microsatellite stable-CRC endometrial cancer (EMC), non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), renal cell carcinoma (RCC), endometrial cancer (EMC); and Savolitinib, a potent and selective inhibitor of mesenchymal-epithelial transition receptor to treat NSCLC, papillary RCC, and GC. It also develops Surufatinib to treat pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (NET), non pancreatic NET, and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; Sovleplenib, to treat immune thrombocytopenic purpura and warm autoimmune hemolytic anemia; and Tazemetostat, a treatment for epithelioid sarcoma and follicular lymphoma; Fanregratinib that treats intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma; and Ranosidenib, a novel dual-inhibitor of dehydrogenase-1 and isocitrate dehydrogenase-2 enzymes to treat acute myeloid leukemia (AML). In addition, the company is developing HMPL-760, which is in phase I and II clinical trial to treat relapsed and/or refractory diffuse large B cell lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, small lymphocytic lymphoma, and other B-NHL; HMPL-506 to treat Mixed-lineage leukemia-rearrange/rearrangement and nucleophosmin 1-mutantAML. It has collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca AB (publ), Lilly (Shanghai) Management Company Limited, Takeda, Inmagene Biopharmaceuticals Co. Ltd., Innovent Biologics Co., Inc., and Epizyme, Inc., and Epizyme, Inc. The company was formerly known as Hutchison China MediTech Limited and changed its name to HUTCHMED (China) Limited in May 2021. HUTCHMED (China) Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Hong Kong, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

HUTCHMED (China) Limited reported revenue of $550M in FY2025 versus $356M in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was $458M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.