HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of HCW Biologics Inc $1.01, price $1.68, upside -39.9%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.61 – $1,512 · fair‑value band $0.7500 – $1.51 · the $1.68 price screens above the $1.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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HCW Biologics Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering and developing novel immunotherapies for chronic, low-grade inflammation, and diseases in the United States.
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HCW Biologics Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on discovering and developing novel immunotherapies for chronic, low-grade inflammation, and diseases in the United States. Its lead products include HCW11-018b, a novel, tetra-valent T-Cell engager; HCW11-040, a multifunctional fusion molecule that is a combination of cytokines and pembrolizumab; and HCW9302, injectable and interleukin 2 (IL-2) fusion protein complex, which is in clinical trial in patients with alopecia areata diseases. The company also develops HCW9201, a fusion protein designed as a reagent to use in the production of natural killer (NK) cell-based therapies; HCW9206, a fusion protein designed as a reagent to use in the production of CAR-therapies for the treatment of infectious diseases; and HCW11-006, a multi-functional immune cell stimulator. It has a license agreement with Wugen Inc. to develop cell therapy-based treatments; and a license, research and co-development agreement with WY Biotech Co., Ltd. for its preclinical molecule. HCW Biologics Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Miramar, Florida.
Stock analysis
HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB) currently trades at $1.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.01, 39.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.7500 (bear) to $1.51 (bull), the price of $1.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
HCW Biologics Inc reported revenue of $54.2K in FY2025 versus $4.1M in FY2021, a compound −66.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$8.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.8M · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) $−15.49 · Net margin −83.1% · Return on equity −151% · Return on assets (EBIT) −58.2% · Operating margin −2,336% · Revenue growth (YoY) +19.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 94% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −40%, HCWB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.7500Fair Value $1.01Bull $1.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−97.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−79.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−57.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−142.1% (2020) → −20,757.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 576 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Below median
Fair Value upside−40.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−13.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−83.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.67× · Highest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)98· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.01 versus a price of $1.68, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HCWB?
Our model-based fair value for HCW Biologics Inc is $1.01 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.68.
What is the quality score of HCWB?
HCW Biologics Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.01 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7500, optimistic scenario $1.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HCW Biologics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.01, about −40% upside versus a price of $1.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7500, optimistic scenario $1.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HCW Biologics Inc it is $1.01 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $1.68. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HCW Biologics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HCWB trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.68, fair value $1.01, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCWB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.01). For HCW Biologics Inc the two are $0.6700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HCW Biologics Inc worth?
The market values HCW Biologics Inc at about $3.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $1.68; our models calculate a fair value of $1.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCWB?
Our models span a range for HCW Biologics Inc: cautious scenario $0.7500, base $1.01, optimistic $1.51 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $1.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
Balance-sheet figures for HCW Biologics Inc (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −151.4%, debt of 2.67 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCWB from its 52-week high?
HCW Biologics Inc trades at $1.68, about 94% below its 52-week high of $29.28 and 4% above the low of $1.61 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HCW Biologics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HCW Biologics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $1.68, calculated fair value $1.01 (−40%), Quality Score 37/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCWB calculated?
We run HCW Biologics Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HCW Biologics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.68. Our model-based fair value is $1.01, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HCW Biologics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.7500 to $1.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of HCW Biologics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
The market capitalisation of HCW Biologics Inc is $3.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HCW Biologics Inc is 0.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
Earnings per share at HCW Biologics Inc are $−15.49. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
The net margin of HCW Biologics Inc is −83.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HCW Biologics Inc is −151% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HCW Biologics Inc is −58.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
The operating margin of HCW Biologics Inc is −2,336% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB)?
Revenue at HCW Biologics Inc is growing +19.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −79.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB) generate?
The free cash flow of HCW Biologics Inc is −$13.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HCW Biologics Inc (HCWB) carry?
The net debt of HCW Biologics Inc is $4.9M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026