HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of HEC Infra Projects Limited ₹215, price ₹113, upside +90.6%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹18.88 – ₹183.06 · fair‑value band ₹145.48 – ₹275.78 · the ₹113.00 price screens below the ₹215.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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HEC Infra Projects Limited operates as an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor for electro-mechanical and instrumentation projects in India.
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HEC Infra Projects Limited operates as an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contractor for electro-mechanical and instrumentation projects in India. The company offers services for transmission and substation projects, water management systems, smart lighting systems, public address systems, solar rooftops and power plants, building management systems, and air conditioning systems, as well as fire, security, and nurse calling systems; and electrification services. It serves the engineering and allied industries; textile, glass, and cement industries; chemical, pharmaceutical, and food products; steel and non-ferrous industries; petrochemical, refineries, and gas and oil sectors; commercial projects; dairy and allied industries; paint industry; hospitals; airports; real-estate developments; and utilities. HEC Infra Projects Limited was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Ahmedabad, India.
Stock analysis
HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT) currently trades at ₹113.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹215.34, implying the stock looks roughly 47.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹291.89 per share, and 19 of the 23 models we run sit above the ₹113.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹40.64, and 4 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹145.48 (bear) to ₹275.78 (bull), the price of ₹113.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
HEC Infra Projects Limited reported revenue of ₹1.8B in FY2026 versus ₹437M in FY2022, a compound +41.7%/yr. Reported net income was ₹126M in FY2026, compounding +122.5%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.5B (≈ $15.8M) · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) ₹11.62 · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 21.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.6% · Operating margin 17.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 91%, HECPROJECT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹145.48Fair Value ₹215.34Bull ₹275.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹5.86 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+57.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +87.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+87.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.87.1% vs 13.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 11%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2026, which sits 150% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare HEC Infra Projects Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 802 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+90.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)17.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.1% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HEC Infra Projects Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HECPROJECT
Frequently asked questions
Is HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹215.34 versus a price of ₹113.00, about +91% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HECPROJECT?
Our model-based fair value for HEC Infra Projects Limited is ₹215.34 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹113.00.
What is the quality score of HECPROJECT?
HEC Infra Projects Limited has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹215.34 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹145.48, optimistic scenario ₹275.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HEC Infra Projects Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹215.34, about +91% upside versus a price of ₹113.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹145.48, optimistic scenario ₹275.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
HEC Infra Projects Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹1.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HEC Infra Projects Limited would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HECPROJECT use?
Our models discount HEC Infra Projects Limited at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HEC Infra Projects Limited that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HEC Infra Projects Limited grew +36.3 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HEC Infra Projects Limited (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.10 %: that much free cash flow HEC Infra Projects Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HEC Infra Projects Limited it is ₹215.34 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹113.00. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HEC Infra Projects Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, HECPROJECT trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹113.00, fair value ₹215.34, a gap of about +91% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HECPROJECT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹113.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹215.34). For HEC Infra Projects Limited the two are ₹102.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HEC Infra Projects Limited worth?
The market values HEC Infra Projects Limited at about ₹1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹113.00; our models calculate a fair value of ₹215.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HECPROJECT?
Our models span a range for HEC Infra Projects Limited: cautious scenario ₹145.48, base ₹215.34, optimistic ₹275.78 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹113.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HECPROJECT?
HEC Infra Projects Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹215.34 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
Balance-sheet figures for HEC Infra Projects Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 21.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HECPROJECT from its 52-week high?
HEC Infra Projects Limited trades at ₹113.00, about 25% below its 52-week high of ₹151.61 and 18% above the low of ₹95.88 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹215.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HEC Infra Projects Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HEC Infra Projects Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹113.00, calculated fair value ₹215.34 (+91%), Quality Score 47/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HECPROJECT calculated?
We run HEC Infra Projects Limited through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹215.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. HEC Infra Projects Limited currently trades 48 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was ₹113.00. Our model-based fair value is ₹215.34, about +91% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HEC Infra Projects Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (₹145.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (₹145.48 to ₹275.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT) come from?
Earnings per share at HEC Infra Projects Limited grew +11.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.2 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +11.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of HEC Infra Projects Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
The market capitalisation of HEC Infra Projects Limited is ₹1.5B (≈ $15.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HEC Infra Projects Limited is 0.69 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
Earnings per share at HEC Infra Projects Limited are ₹11.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
The net margin of HEC Infra Projects Limited is 7.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HEC Infra Projects Limited is 21.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HEC Infra Projects Limited is 15.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
The operating margin of HEC Infra Projects Limited is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
Revenue at HEC Infra Projects Limited is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +50.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT)?
Earnings per share at HEC Infra Projects Limited are growing +0.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does HEC Infra Projects Limited (HECPROJECT) carry?
The net debt of HEC Infra Projects Limited is ₹286M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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