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Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hippo Holdings Inc $16.10, price $29.71, upside -45.8%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US4335391037

HH Hippo Holdings Inc logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Hippo Holdings Inc

HIPO · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $16.10 · Strongly overvalued (−46%)
!Quality 54/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +55.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Moderate moat 59/100
!Insider activity 46/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$250.00 $6.90 Fair Value $16.10 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.90 – $250.00 · fair‑value band $14.31 – $24.53 · the $29.71 price screens above the $16.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Hippo Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance products to individuals and business customers primarily in the United States.

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Hippo Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance products to individuals and business customers primarily in the United States. The company provides a multi-carrier platform through owned and partner managing general agents (MGAs), serving as a licensed insurance carrier for MGAs and providing admitted and non-admitted (excess and surplus) paper, regulatory licenses, and reinsurance across multiple lines of business. The company also offers insurance products, including homeowners, renters, commercial multi-peril, casualty, and other specialty insurance programs. It provides homeowners insurance, general liability, commercial auto liability, and excess and umbrella liability, written through delegated authority arrangements, renters insurance, liability coverage, commercial multi-peril policies for small to mid-sized businesses, and niche personal or commercial products, as well as program-specific and corporate catastrophe reinsurance solutions. The company distributes insurance products and services through its technology platforms and website, as well as operates licensed insurance agencies. The company was formerly known as Hippo Enterprises Inc. and changed its name to Hippo Holdings Inc. in August 2021. Hippo Holdings Inc. is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock analysis

Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO) currently trades at $29.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.10, implying the stock looks roughly 84.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $23.45 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $29.71 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.22, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $14.31 (bear) to $24.53 (bull), the price of $29.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Hippo Holdings Inc reported revenue of $469M in FY2025 versus $91.2M in FY2021, a compound +50.6%/yr. Reported net income was $57.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $773M · P/E ratio 6.8 · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) $4.40 · Net margin 12.3% · Return on equity 29.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.8% · Operating margin 5.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −46%, HIPO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $14.31 Fair Value $16.10 Bull $24.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.22 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $15.05 $17.49 $32.67 65
P/E Multiple $21.61 $28.81 $36.01 63
P/B Multiple $17.59 $23.45 $29.31 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $21.61 $28.81 $36.01 63
P/B Multiple $17.59 $23.45 $29.31 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.37 $11.22 $16.75 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $15.05 $17.49 $32.67 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 91
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 45
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 31
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+55.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−277.5% (2020) → 13.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+40.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.8% a year for the price and +19.6% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+21.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+27.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+24.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+21.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+18.0%

HIPO screens 85% overvalued. Compare with The Progressive Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Below median
Fair Value upside −46% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 30% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.11× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Property & Casualty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.77× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.62× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 84.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 20.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)45 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)100 · sector 56
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 50

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Progressive Corporation PGR $206.94 $160.25 −23%
Chubb Limited CB $335.77 $234.73 −30%
The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV $362.01 $274.42 −24%
The Allstate Corporation ALL $229.50 $316.11 +38%
The People's Insurance Company 601319 ¥8.07 ¥9.25 +15%
PICC Property and Casualty Company 2328 HK$16.84 HK$18.92 +12%
Intact Financial Corporation IFC C$254.29 C$167.46 −34%
Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH C$2,260 C$3,226 +43%
Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF $165.83 $146.70 −12%
W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB $68.17 $47.08 −31%

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$16.10 −85%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hippo Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HIPO

Frequently asked questions

Is Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.10 versus a price of $29.71, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HIPO?
Our model-based fair value for Hippo Holdings Inc is $16.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.71.
What is the quality score of HIPO?
Hippo Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $14.31, optimistic scenario $24.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hippo Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.10, about −46% upside versus a price of $29.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $14.31, optimistic scenario $24.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
Hippo Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $479M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hippo Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +40.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +55.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HIPO use?
Our models discount Hippo Holdings Inc at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.52, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hippo Holdings Inc that is +40.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hippo Holdings Inc grew +55.5 % a year. The price currently implies +40.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hippo Holdings Inc (+40.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.18 %: that much free cash flow Hippo Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hippo Holdings Inc it is $16.10 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $29.71. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hippo Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HIPO trades above its calculated fair value: price $29.71, fair value $16.10, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HIPO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.10). For Hippo Holdings Inc the two are $13.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hippo Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Hippo Holdings Inc at about $773M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $29.71; our models calculate a fair value of $16.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HIPO?
Our models span a range for Hippo Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $14.31, base $16.10, optimistic $24.53 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $29.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HIPO?
Hippo Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 20.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hippo Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 29.7%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HIPO from its 52-week high?
Hippo Holdings Inc trades at $29.71, about 22% below its 52-week high of $37.85 and 23% above the low of $24.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hippo Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hippo Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $29.71, calculated fair value $16.10 (−46%), Quality Score 54/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HIPO calculated?
We run Hippo Holdings Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hippo Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $29.71. Our model-based fair value is $16.10, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hippo Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($24.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Hippo Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
The market capitalisation of Hippo Holdings Inc is $773M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hippo Holdings Inc is 0.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
Earnings per share at Hippo Holdings Inc are $4.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
The net margin of Hippo Holdings Inc is 12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hippo Holdings Inc is 29.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hippo Holdings Inc is −11.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
The operating margin of Hippo Holdings Inc is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
Revenue at Hippo Holdings Inc is growing +8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +57.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO)?
Earnings per share at Hippo Holdings Inc are growing −86.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hippo Holdings Inc (HIPO) hold?
Hippo Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $198M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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