Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Horace Mann Educators Corporation $38.88, price $46.54, upside -16.5%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.10 – $54.12 · fair‑value band $31.65 – $52.74 · the $46.54 price screens above the $38.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Horace Mann Educators Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an insurance holding company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Property & Casualty, Life & Retirement, and Supplemental & Group Benefits segments.
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Horace Mann Educators Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an insurance holding company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Property & Casualty, Life & Retirement, and Supplemental & Group Benefits segments. The Property & Casualty segment offers insurance products, including private passenger auto insurance, residential home insurance, and personal umbrella insurance; standard auto coverage including liability, collision, and comprehensive; property coverage for homeowners and renters. The Life & Retirement segment sells tax-qualified fixed, fixed indexed, and variable annuities; the Horace Mann Retirement Advantage open architecture platform and other defined contribution plans; traditional term, whole life insurance products, and indexed universal life (IUL) products. This segment also offers Life by Design, a portfolio of individual whole life and individual term insurance products that address the financial planning needs of educators; Life Select, a combination product that mixes a base of either traditional whole life, 20-pay life, or life paid-up at age 65 with a variety of term riders; single premium whole life products; and cash value term. The Supplemental & Group Benefits segment offers employer-sponsored products, including accident, critical illness, limited-benefit fixed indemnity insurance, term life, and short-term and long-term disability, as well as worksite direct products, such as supplemental heart, cancer, disability, and accident coverages. The company offers individual protection and savings solutions, including auto insurance, property insurance, liability insurance, 403(b) retirement plans, mutual funds, life insurance, student loan solutions, credit monitoring, and financial wellness workshops. It distributes its products and services through agents, brokers, benefit specialists, direct and digital channels. The company was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Springfield, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) currently trades at $46.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.88, implying the stock looks roughly 19.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $51.40 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $46.54 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $17.48, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $31.65 (bear) to $52.74 (bull), the price of $46.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Horace Mann Educators Corporation reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $162M in FY2025, compounding −1.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.9B · P/E ratio 11.7 · P/S ratio 1.17 · EPS (TTM) $3.98 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 10.0% · Return on equity 11.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −16%, HMN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $31.65Fair Value $38.88Bull $52.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.88 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1% vs 6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 12%
2025 sits 259% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.3% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Horace Mann Educators Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMN
Frequently asked questions
Is Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.88 versus a price of $46.54, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMN?
Our model-based fair value for Horace Mann Educators Corporation is $38.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $46.54.
What is the quality score of HMN?
Horace Mann Educators Corporation has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.88 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $31.65, optimistic scenario $52.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Horace Mann Educators Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.88, about −16% upside versus a price of $46.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $31.65, optimistic scenario $52.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
Horace Mann Educators Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Horace Mann Educators Corporation pay a dividend?
Horace Mann Educators Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Horace Mann Educators Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +5.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HMN use?
Our models discount Horace Mann Educators Corporation at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Horace Mann Educators Corporation that is +5.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Horace Mann Educators Corporation grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +5.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Horace Mann Educators Corporation (+5.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.06 %: that much free cash flow Horace Mann Educators Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horace Mann Educators Corporation it is $38.88 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $46.54. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Horace Mann Educators Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HMN trades above its calculated fair value: price $46.54, fair value $38.88, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($46.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.88). For Horace Mann Educators Corporation the two are $7.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horace Mann Educators Corporation worth?
The market values Horace Mann Educators Corporation at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $46.54; our models calculate a fair value of $38.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMN?
Our models span a range for Horace Mann Educators Corporation: cautious scenario $31.65, base $38.88, optimistic $52.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $46.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HMN?
Horace Mann Educators Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.3, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
What is the PEG ratio of HMN?
The PEG ratio of Horace Mann Educators Corporation is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horace Mann Educators Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 11.7%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HMN from its 52-week high?
Horace Mann Educators Corporation trades at $46.54, about 14% below its 52-week high of $54.12 and 13% above the low of $41.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horace Mann Educators Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horace Mann Educators Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $46.54, calculated fair value $38.88 (−16%), Quality Score 51/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMN calculated?
We run Horace Mann Educators Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Horace Mann Educators Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $46.54. Our model-based fair value is $38.88, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horace Mann Educators Corporation right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) come from?
Earnings per share at Horace Mann Educators Corporation grew +1.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin −4.9 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Horace Mann Educators Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
The market capitalisation of Horace Mann Educators Corporation is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Horace Mann Educators Corporation is 1.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
Earnings per share at Horace Mann Educators Corporation are $3.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
The dividend yield of Horace Mann Educators Corporation is 3.0% (payout 35.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
The net margin of Horace Mann Educators Corporation is 10.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horace Mann Educators Corporation is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horace Mann Educators Corporation is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
The operating margin of Horace Mann Educators Corporation is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
Revenue at Horace Mann Educators Corporation is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN)?
Earnings per share at Horace Mann Educators Corporation are growing +8.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Horace Mann Educators Corporation (HMN) carry?
The net debt of Horace Mann Educators Corporation is $567M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026