Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K $5.89, price $7.90, upside -25.5%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.57 – $13.77 · fair‑value band $3.79 – $8.46 · the $7.90 price screens above the $5.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. manufactures and sells photomultiplier tubes, imaging devices, light sources, opto-semiconductors, and imaging and analyzing systems in Japan and internationally. It operates through four segments: Electron Tube, Opto-Semiconductor, Imaging and Measurement Instruments, Laser, and Other.
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Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. manufactures and sells photomultiplier tubes, imaging devices, light sources, opto-semiconductors, and imaging and analyzing systems in Japan and internationally. It operates through four segments: Electron Tube, Opto-Semiconductor, Imaging and Measurement Instruments, Laser, and Other. The company offers optical sensors, including photodiodes, avalanche photodiodes, photo integrated circuits, multi-pixel photon counters, single-photon avalanche diodes, photomultiplier tubes, phototubes, image sensors, spectrometers, spectrum sensors, infrared detectors, ultraviolet and flame sensors, radiation and x-ray sensors, electron and ion sensors, distance and position sensors, and terahertz sensors. It also provides optical components, such as optical blocks, fiber optic plates, FAC lenses, collimating capillary lenses, capillary plates, flow cells, LCOS-SLM optical phase modulators, image splitting optics, MEMS mirrors, terahertz wave plates, porous transfer plates, photonic crystal fibers, and QPM optical modules. In addition, the company offers cameras, comprising qCMOS, CMOS, sCMOS, InGaAs, TDI, board-level CMOS, board-level TDI, x-ray line scan, x-ray TDI, x-ray CMOS cameras, as well as high-resolution x-ray imaging systems, and software. Further, it provides light and radiation sources, such as LEDs, lamps, lamp modules and units, UV-LED light sources, excimer lamp light sources, microfocus x-ray sources, soft x-ray sources, extreme ultraviolet and soft x-ray sources, laser-driven tunable light sources, laser-driven light sources, chromatiq spectral engines; lasers, including semiconductor, applied products of semiconductor, solid-state lasers, and laser-related products; and manufacturing support, semiconductor manufacturing support systems, photometry, life science, and medical systems. The company was formerly known as Hamamatsu TV Co., Ltd. Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Hamamatsu, Japan.
Stock analysis
Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY) currently trades at $7.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.89, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $3.70 per share, and 1 of the 22 models we run sit above the $7.90 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.8844, and 21 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.79 (bear) to $8.46 (bull), the price of $7.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Hamamatsu Photonics K.K reported revenue of ¥212B in FY2025 versus ¥169B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥14.2B in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.7B · P/E ratio 56.4 · P/S ratio 3.78 · EPS (TTM) $0.1400 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −66% fair-value upside, at −25%, HPHTY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.79Fair Value $5.89Bull $8.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.30/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
’14
’15
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’17
’18
’19
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 8%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.0% a year for the forecasts.
Compare Hamamatsu Photonics K.K with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 654 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−26% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)56.4× · Pricier than median
P/B2.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)3.43× · Pricier than median
P/FCF8.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA17.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)40· sector 39
PAST (return on equity)17· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)29· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.89 versus a price of $7.90, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HPHTY?
Our model-based fair value for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is $5.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.90.
What is the quality score of HPHTY?
Hamamatsu Photonics K.K has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.79, optimistic scenario $8.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hamamatsu Photonics K.K stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.89, about −25% upside versus a price of $7.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.79, optimistic scenario $8.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
Hamamatsu Photonics K.K reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥218B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hamamatsu Photonics K.K pay a dividend?
Hamamatsu Photonics K.K currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hamamatsu Photonics K.K would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 6 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HPHTY use?
Our models discount Hamamatsu Photonics K.K at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hamamatsu Photonics K.K that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY) delivered so far?
Over the past 6 years revenue at Hamamatsu Photonics K.K grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.15 %: that much free cash flow Hamamatsu Photonics K.K produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hamamatsu Photonics K.K it is $5.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.90. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hamamatsu Photonics K.K stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HPHTY trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.90, fair value $5.89, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HPHTY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.89). For Hamamatsu Photonics K.K the two are $2.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hamamatsu Photonics K.K worth?
The market values Hamamatsu Photonics K.K at about $4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.90; our models calculate a fair value of $5.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HPHTY?
Our models span a range for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K: cautious scenario $3.79, base $5.89, optimistic $8.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HPHTY?
Hamamatsu Photonics K.K trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.89 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 17.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HPHTY from its 52-week high?
Hamamatsu Photonics K.K trades at $7.90, about 17% below its 52-week high of $9.57 and 65% above the low of $4.79 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hamamatsu Photonics K.K?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Delta Electronics, Inc, Corning Incorporated, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hamamatsu Photonics K.K stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.90, calculated fair value $5.89 (−25%), Quality Score 55/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HPHTY calculated?
We run Hamamatsu Photonics K.K through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hamamatsu Photonics K.K itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.90. Our model-based fair value is $5.89, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hamamatsu Photonics K.K right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($3.79 to $8.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K
How large is the market capitalisation of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
The market capitalisation of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is $4.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is 3.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
Earnings per share at Hamamatsu Photonics K.K are $0.1400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
The dividend yield of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is 1.5% (payout 83.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
The net margin of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
The operating margin of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
Revenue at Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is growing +7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hamamatsu Photonics K.K (HPHTY)?
Earnings per share at Hamamatsu Photonics K.K are growing +14.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026