Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hormel Foods Corporation stock $15.09, price $22.60, that is 33.2% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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🚩Price drop: Portfolio exits and softer consumer demand weighing on sales🚩Private label rivals in meats and snacks🚩Antitrust litigation in pork processing
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.19 – $47.53 · fair‑value band $10.51 – $21.91 · the $22.60 price screens above the $15.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Hormel Foods Corporation develops, processes, and distributes various meat, nuts, and other food products to foodservice, convenience store, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Retail, Foodservice, and International segments.
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The company provides various perishable products, including resh meats, frozen items, refrigerated meal solutions, bacon, sausages, hams, guacamole, and other items that require refrigeration; and shelf-stable products, such as canned luncheon meats, nut butters, snack nuts, chili, shelf-stable microwaveable meals, hash, stews, tortillas, salsas, tortilla chips, and other items that do not require refrigeration.
It sells its products under the HORMEL, ALWAYS TENDER, APPLEGATE, AUSTIN BLUES, BACON 1, BLACK LABEL, BREAD READY, BURKE, CAFÉ H, CERATTI, CHI-CHI'S, COLUMBUS, COMPLEATS, CORN NUTS, CURE 81, DAN'S PRIZE, DI LUSSO, DINTY MOORE, DON MIGUEL, DOÑA MARIA, EMBASA, FAST "N EASY, FIRE BRAISED, FONTANINI, HERDEZ, HORMEL GATHERINGS, HOUSE OF TSANG, JENNIE-O, JUSTIN'S, LA VICTORIA, LAYOUT, LLOYD'S, MARY KITCHEN, MR. PEANUT, NATURAL CHOICE, NUT-RITION, OLD SMOKEHOUSE, OVEN READY, PILLOW PACK, PLANTERS, ROSA GRANDE, SADLER'S SMOKEHOUSE, SKIPPY, SPAM, SQUARE TABLE, SPECIAL RECIPE, VALLEY FRESH, and WHOLLY brands through sales personnel, independent brokers, and distributors.
The company was formerly known as Geo. A. Hormel & Company and changed its name to Hormel Foods Corporation in January 1995. Hormel Foods Corporation was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Austin, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) currently trades at $22.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.09, 33% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $18.03 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the $22.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.62, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.51 (bear) to $21.91 (bull), the price of $22.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hormel Foods Corporation reported revenue of $12.1B in FY2025 versus $11.4B in FY2021, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was $478M in FY2025, compounding −14.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.5B Large · P/E ratio 36.5 · P/S ratio 1.03 · EPS (TTM) $0.6200 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −33%, HRL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.51Fair Value $15.09Bull$21.91
Price $22.60 · Downside -33.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $201,000, on Oct 5, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $495,102.
BuyWilliam A NewlandsDirector10,000 shares at $20.10$201,000Oct 5, 2026
SaleGary C. BhojwaniDirector20,200 shares at $24.51$495,102Jul 8, 2026
SaleElsa A MuranoDirector13,400 shares at $24.00$321,600Dec 11, 2025
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.2% vs −3.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.0% a year for the price and −1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from portfolio reshaping toward higher-quality segments is limited by thin margins and weak pricing power that constrain profitability.
Main risk: Private label offerings from retailers could erode Hormel's branded share and force price cuts in packaged meats, bacon, nuts and snacks.
Bull case: By accelerating its shift to higher-margin value-added proteins and using AI for supply chain efficiency Hormel could widen its edge over private labels and resolve legal matters with minimal disruption.
Bear case: If private labels capture more shelf space and antitrust pressures intensify, Hormel might face sustained margin compression and higher legal costs while exiting commodity lines extends sales weakness.
Hormel is reshaping its portfolio by exiting lower-margin and commodity-exposed businesses such as whole-bird turkey and certain private-label products. These moves, combined with softer consumer demand, have weighed on sales while adjusted earnings edge higher. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the resulting mix of higher-quality segments deliver lasting margin gains or simply extend the period of top-line pressure?
Compare Hormel Foods Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 629 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−33.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.3% · Below median
Return on assets3.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)8.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.36× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)36.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.58× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.03× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow23.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.6× · Pricier than median
PEG1.40× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)17· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)82· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.09 versus a price of $22.60, about 33% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HRL?
Our model-based fair value for Hormel Foods Corporation is $15.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.60.
What is the quality score of HRL?
Hormel Foods Corporation has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.09 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.51, optimistic scenario $21.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hormel Foods Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.09, about 33% lower versus a price of $22.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.51, optimistic scenario $21.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
Hormel Foods Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Hormel Foods Corporation pay a dividend?
Hormel Foods Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 5.17% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hormel Foods Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HRL use?
Our models discount Hormel Foods Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hormel Foods Corporation that is +10.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hormel Foods Corporation grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hormel Foods Corporation (+10.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.29 %: that much free cash flow Hormel Foods Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hormel Foods Corporation it is $15.09 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $22.60. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hormel Foods Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HRL trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.60, fair value $15.09, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HRL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.09). For Hormel Foods Corporation the two are $7.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hormel Foods Corporation worth?
The market values Hormel Foods Corporation at about $12.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $22.60; our models calculate a fair value of $15.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HRL?
Our models span a range for Hormel Foods Corporation: cautious scenario $10.51, base $15.09, optimistic $21.91 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $22.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HRL?
Hormel Foods Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.09 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 22.8 (reported for FY2025: 26.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 23.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
What is the PEG ratio of HRL?
The PEG ratio of Hormel Foods Corporation is 1.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hormel Foods Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 4.3%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HRL from its 52-week high?
Hormel Foods Corporation trades at $22.60, about 15% below its 52-week high of $26.51 and 18% above the low of $19.19 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hormel Foods Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hormel Foods Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $22.60, calculated fair value $15.09 (−33%), Quality Score 60/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HRL calculated?
We run Hormel Foods Corporation through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Hormel Foods Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $22.60. Our model-based fair value is $15.09, about 33% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hormel Foods Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($21.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($10.51 to $21.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) come from?
Earnings per share at Hormel Foods Corporation grew −0.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.7 %, EBIT margin −4.4 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hormel Foods Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
The market capitalisation of Hormel Foods Corporation is $12.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hormel Foods Corporation is 1.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
Earnings per share at Hormel Foods Corporation are $0.6200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
The dividend yield of Hormel Foods Corporation is 5.2% (payout 166%, on adjusted earnings, reported 188%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
The net margin of Hormel Foods Corporation is 2.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hormel Foods Corporation is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hormel Foods Corporation is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
The operating margin of Hormel Foods Corporation is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
Revenue at Hormel Foods Corporation is growing −2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL)?
Earnings per share at Hormel Foods Corporation are growing −67.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) carry?
The net debt of Hormel Foods Corporation is $2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026