Heron Therapeutics, Inc (HRTX) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $79.0M
Heron Therapeutics, Inc
HRTX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $0.3400 to $0.0500 (−85.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +10.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 90% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0800). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($0.0400 to $0.0800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3820 – $18.48 · fair‑value band $0.0400 – $0.0800 · the $0.4908 price screens above the $0.0500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Heron Therapeutics, Inc (HRTX) currently trades at $0.4908, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0500, implying the stock looks roughly 89.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Heron Therapeutics, Inc generated revenue of $151M at a net margin of -20.5%. Revenue declined 10.8% year over year. Net debt stands at $112M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0400 (bear case) to $0.0800 (bull case); at $0.4908, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 79% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -90%, HRTX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 3
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Heron Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage biotechnology company, engages in developing and commercializing therapeutic that enhances medical care.
Full company description
Heron Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage biotechnology company, engages in developing and commercializing therapeutic that enhances medical care. The company's product candidates utilize its proprietary Biochronomer, a drug delivery technology, which delivers therapeutic levels of a range of short-acting pharmacological agents over a period from days to weeks with a single administration. It offers SUSTOL (granisetron), an extended-release injection for the prevention of acute and delayed nausea and vomiting associated with moderately emetogenic chemotherapy, or anthracycline and cyclophosphamide combination chemotherapy regimens; and CINVANTI, an intravenous formulation of aprepitant, a substance P/neurokinin-1 receptor antagonist for the prevention of acute and delayed nausea and vomiting associated with highly emetogenic cancer chemotherapy, as well as nausea and vomiting associated with moderately emetogenic cancer chemotherapy. The company is also developing ZYNRELEF, a dual-acting local anesthetic that delivers a fixed-dose combination of the local anesthetic bupivacaine and a low dose of the nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug meloxicam; and APONVIE, an intravenous formulation of a substance P/neurokinin-1 receptor antagonist indicated for the prevention of postoperative nausea and vomiting in adults. Heron Therapeutics, Inc. was formerly known as A.P. Pharma, Inc. and changed its name to Heron Therapeutics, Inc. in January 2014. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Cary, North Carolina.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heron Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $155M in FY2025 versus $86.3M in FY2021, a compound +15.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$20.2M in FY2025.
HRTX screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (HRTX) Stock a Recovery Opportunity After Cinvanti Patent Court Ruling?
- Why Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (HRTX) Price Target Was Reduced to $4 at H.C. Wainwright?
- Heron Therapeutics, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Heron Therapeutics Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 605 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $486.03 | $278.78 | -43% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $664.45 | $594.40 | -11% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,368,000 KRW | 1,091,384 KRW | -20% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 175,800 KRW | 76,325 KRW | -57% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$39.54 | HK$30.42 | -23% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$86.70 | HK$19.66 | -77% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$5.26 | HK$3.36 | -36% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥134.45 | ¥23.19 | -83% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 276,500 KRW | 44,444 KRW | -84% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹440.70 | ₹57.36 | -87% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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