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Hoshizaki Corporation (HSHZY) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $4.6B

HC Hoshizaki Corporation logo Hoshizaki Corporation HSHZY · US
Price$9.12
Fair Value$9.38
Upside+2.9%
Quality66/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 7.7% net margin
generates free cash flow
2.25% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/11)
Moderate moat 48/100
Evidence: Medium Range $6.78 – $11.72 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $9.88 to $9.38 (−5.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +9.2% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • Our model range runs from $6.78 (bear) to $11.72 (bull), base $9.38. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 66/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$11.40 $6.42 Fair Value $9.38 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.42 – $11.40 · fair‑value band $6.78 – $11.72 · the $9.12 price screens below the $9.38 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Hoshizaki Corporation (HSHZY) currently trades at $9.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.38, implying the stock looks roughly 2.9% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Hoshizaki Corporation generated revenue of $503B at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 14.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $171B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $6.78 (bear case) to $11.72 (bull case); at $9.12, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 3%, HSHZY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $4.96 $6.89 $9.89 72
Growth-Adj P/E $5.49 $7.85 $10.20 68
Rev-Margin DCF $6.55 $10.17 $14.68 67
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.97 $7.04 $10.37 38
Owner Earnings $8.03 $12.21 $18.95 31
5Y Revenue Exit $6.55 $10.29 $15.34 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $7.55 $12.28 $18.15 41
5Y P/E Exit $7.21 $11.62 $16.56 38
10Y Revenue Exit $5.78 $9.06 $14.03 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $6.59 $10.47 $16.27 37
10Y P/E Exit $6.38 $10.00 $15.01 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $3.04 $12.73 $17.36 54
Lynch FV $3.23 $4.61 $5.99 50
PEG = 1.0 $3.23 $4.61 $5.99 46
EPV $5.64 $6.22 $6.72 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple $7.04 $9.38 $11.73 63
P/S Multiple $5.70 $7.59 $9.49 58
P/B Multiple $5.70 $7.59 $9.49 55
EV/EBIT $9.73 $12.32 $14.90 53
EV/EBITDA $9.57 $12.09 $14.62 54
EV/Revenue $7.51 $9.88 $12.26 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.19 $2.94 $4.39 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.96 $6.89 $9.89 72
Rev-Margin DCF $6.55 $10.17 $14.68 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income $3.81 $4.23 $6.44 61
ROIC Compounder $6.01 $7.29 $8.94 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $5.49 $7.85 $10.20 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($10.29) versus Asset-Based ($2.94). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $503B
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.7%
Net margin 7.7%
Return on equity 10.0%
Free cash flow $22.7B FY2025
P/E ratio 19.8
More key figures
Operating margin 12.6%
EPS (TTM) $0.4200
Dividend yield 2.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +3.7%
Net cash $171B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 36
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Hoshizaki Corporation researches, develops, manufactures, and sells commercial kitchen appliances and equipment in Japan, the United States, Europe, the rest of Asia.

Full company description

Hoshizaki Corporation researches, develops, manufactures, and sells commercial kitchen appliances and equipment in Japan, the United States, Europe, the rest of Asia. It offers ice making, commercial refrigeration and freezing, thawing, cleaning, hygiene management, cooking, bread making, drink service, food service, and freshness management equipment, as well as prefabricated warehouse; and other services, such as equipment and temperature control systems to the food service, retail, hospitality, food and beverages processing, healthcare, and agriculture and fishery industries. The company was formerly known as Hoshizaki Electric Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Hoshizaki Corporation in July 2016. Hoshizaki Corporation was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Toyoake, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Hoshizaki Corporation reported revenue of $509B in FY2025 versus $274B in FY2021, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was $40.0B in FY2025, compounding +16.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$509B
Latest YoY
+14.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+16.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+16.4%
Avg. growth/yr (19Y)
+9.8%
Revenue +16.7%/yr
FY21 $274B
FY22 $321B
FY23 $374B
FY24 $445B
FY25 $509B
Net income +16.5%/yr
FY21 $21.7B
FY22 $24.0B
FY23 $32.8B
FY24 $37.2B
FY25 $40.0B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hoshizaki Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HSHZY

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +3% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Revenue growth 15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.3% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.8× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.71× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 37 · sector 0
FUTURE 74 · sector 23
PAST 40 · sector 28
HEALTH 0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 45 · sector 24

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 ¥43.20 ¥22.68 -48%
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Frequently asked questions

Is Hoshizaki Corporation (HSHZY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.38 versus a price of $9.12, about +3% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HSHZY?
Our model-based fair value for Hoshizaki Corporation is $9.38 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $9.12.
What is the quality score of HSHZY?
Hoshizaki Corporation has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Hoshizaki Corporation (HSHZY)?
Hoshizaki Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $503B (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HSHZY?
The net profit margin of Hoshizaki Corporation is about 7.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Hoshizaki Corporation pay a dividend?
Hoshizaki Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.25% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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