Humble Group (HUMBLE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · SE · Market cap 2.9B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from kr 2.73 to kr 1.79 (−34.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −14.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 2.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 1.21 to kr 2.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 5.56 – kr 33.35 · fair‑value band kr 1.21 – kr 2.52 · the kr 5.56 price screens above the kr 1.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Humble Group (HUMBLE) currently trades at kr 5.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.79, implying the stock looks roughly 67.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Humble Group generated revenue of 8.2B SEK at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 4.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.7%. Net debt stands at 2.4B SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 1.21 (bear case) to kr 2.52 (bull case); at kr 5.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -3% fair-value upside, at -68%, HUMBLE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 13.44) versus Multiples (kr 0.7900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Humble Group AB (publ) develops, produces, and distributes fast-moving consumer goods in Sweden and internationally. It operates through four segments: Future Snacking, Sustainable Care, Quality Nutrition, and Nordic Distribution. The Future Snacking segment offers food, snack, and confectionery products.
Full company description
Humble Group AB (publ) develops, produces, and distributes fast-moving consumer goods in Sweden and internationally. It operates through four segments: Future Snacking, Sustainable Care, Quality Nutrition, and Nordic Distribution. The Future Snacking segment offers food, snack, and confectionery products. The Sustainable Care segment provides personal care and household products, such as skincare, oral care, hair care, and personal care products. The Quality Nutrition segment offers sports nutrition products and ingredients, as well as supplements for athletes and consumers. The Nordic Distribution segment provides a range of fast-moving consumer goods through a network of wholesalers and distributors. The company also sells ingredients and other raw materials. The company offers its products through grocery retailers, distributors, and online. The company was formerly known as Bayn Group AB (publ) and changed its name to Humble Group AB (publ) in April 2021. Humble Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Humble Group reported revenue of kr 8.1B in FY2025 versus kr 1.6B in FY2021, a compound +50.4%/yr. Reported net income was kr 17.0M in FY2025.
HUMBLE screens 68% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 649 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,427 | ₹362.37 | -75% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,413 | ₹1,870 | -65% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,089 | ₹327.27 | -70% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 6,650 IDR | 15,757 IDR | +137% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,139,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -11% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹413.80 | ₹157.04 | -62% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 58,500 VND | 68,259 VND | +17% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,750 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +54% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,490 IDR | 4,355 IDR | -3% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 348,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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