Humble Group AB (HUMBLE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Humble Group AB stock SEK 2.73, price SEK 5.86, that is 53.4% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 5.10 – kr 33.35 · fair‑value band kr 1.21 – kr 5.16 · the kr 5.86 price screens above the kr 2.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
Follow Humble Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Humble Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Humble Group AB (publ) develops, produces, and distributes fast-moving consumer goods in Sweden and internationally. It operates through four segments: Future Snacking, Sustainable Care, Quality Nutrition, and Nordic Distribution.
Show moreShow less
The Future Snacking segment offers food, snack, and confectionery products. The Sustainable Care segment provides personal care and household products, such as skincare, oral care, hair care, and personal care products.
The Quality Nutrition segment offers sports nutrition products and ingredients, as well as supplements for athletes and consumers. The Nordic Distribution segment provides a range of fast-moving consumer goods through a network of wholesalers and distributors.
The company also sells ingredients and other raw materials. The company offers its products through grocery retailers, distributors, and online. The company was formerly known as Bayn Group AB (publ) and changed its name to Humble Group AB (publ) in April 2021.
Humble Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Humble Group AB (HUMBLE) currently trades at kr 5.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 2.73, 53% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 13.82 per share, and 10 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 5.86 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 1.40, and 12 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 1.21 (bear) to kr 5.16 (bull), the price of kr 5.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Humble Group AB reported revenue of 8.1B SEK in FY2025 versus 1.6B SEK in FY2021, a compound +50.4%/yr. Reported net income was 17.0M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.7B SEK (≈ $269M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.30 · EPS (TTM) kr −1.04 · Net margin −5.6% · Return on equity −9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 6.1% · Revenue (TTM) 8.3B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 21 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −53%, HUMBLE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 1.21Fair Value kr 2.73Bullkr 5.16
Price kr 5.86 · Downside -53.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+195.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +138.5% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+123.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−101.1% (2020) → 3.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 625 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−53.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−5.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.54× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.32× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA7.0× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)26· sector 25
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Humble Group AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HUMBLE
Frequently asked questions
Is Humble Group AB (HUMBLE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 2.73 versus a price of kr 5.86, about 53% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HUMBLE?
Our model-based fair value for Humble Group AB is kr 2.73 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 5.86.
What is the quality score of HUMBLE?
Humble Group AB has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 2.73 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 1.21, optimistic scenario kr 5.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Humble Group AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 2.73, about 53% lower versus a price of kr 5.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 1.21, optimistic scenario kr 5.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
Humble Group AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.3B SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Humble Group AB would have to grow free cash flow by +8.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +195.4 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HUMBLE use?
Our models discount Humble Group AB at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.04, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Humble Group AB that is +8.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Humble Group AB (HUMBLE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Humble Group AB grew +195.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +8.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Humble Group AB (+8.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.08 %: that much free cash flow Humble Group AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Humble Group AB it is kr 2.73 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of kr 5.86. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Humble Group AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, HUMBLE trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 5.86, fair value kr 2.73, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HUMBLE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 5.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 2.73). For Humble Group AB the two are kr 3.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Humble Group AB worth?
The market values Humble Group AB at about 2.7B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is kr 5.86; our models calculate a fair value of kr 2.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HUMBLE?
Our models span a range for Humble Group AB: cautious scenario kr 1.21, base kr 2.73, optimistic kr 5.16 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price kr 5.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Humble Group AB (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −9.7%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HUMBLE from its 52-week high?
Humble Group AB trades at kr 5.86, about 30% below its 52-week high of kr 8.32 and 15% above the low of kr 5.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 2.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Humble Group AB?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Humble Group AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price kr 5.86, calculated fair value kr 2.73 (−53%), Quality Score 46/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HUMBLE calculated?
We run Humble Group AB through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 2.73 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Humble Group AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 5.86. Our model-based fair value is kr 2.73, about 53% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Humble Group AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 5.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (kr 1.21 to kr 5.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Humble Group AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
The market capitalisation of Humble Group AB is 2.7B SEK (≈ $269M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Humble Group AB is 0.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
Earnings per share at Humble Group AB are kr −1.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
The net margin of Humble Group AB is −5.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Humble Group AB is −9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Humble Group AB is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
The operating margin of Humble Group AB is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
Revenue at Humble Group AB is growing +5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Humble Group AB (HUMBLE)?
Earnings per share at Humble Group AB are growing +144% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Humble Group AB (HUMBLE) carry?
The net debt of Humble Group AB is 2.4B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Humble Group AB in the live analysis
One click puts Humble Group AB on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 8, 2026