HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 17, 2026: fair value of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS €0.18, price €0.28, upside -35.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €0.2500 – €2.14 · fair‑value band €0.0800 – €0.2800 · the €0.2800 price screens above the €0.1800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP) currently trades at €0.2800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.1800, 35.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €0.5200 per share, and 11 of the 23 models we run sit above the €0.2800 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at €0.0200, and 12 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €0.0800 (bear) to €0.2800 (bull), the price of €0.2800 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Other sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
HOPSON DEVL HLDGS reported revenue of HK$37.8B in FY2024 versus HK$34.4B in FY2020, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$120M in FY2024, compounding −69.4%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap €4.5B · Net margin 0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Free cash flow HK$8.5B · Net debt HK$67.1B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Other peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −36%, HVP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €0.0800Fair Value €0.1800Bull €0.2800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−10.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 18%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other · 112 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−35.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)0.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Highest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.1800 versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of €0.2800, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HVP?
Our model-based fair value for HOPSON DEVL HLDGS is €0.1800 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 17, 2026): €0.2800.
What is the quality score of HVP?
HOPSON DEVL HLDGS has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.1800 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.0800, optimistic scenario €0.2800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HOPSON DEVL HLDGS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.1800, about −36% upside versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of €0.2800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.0800, optimistic scenario €0.2800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HOPSON DEVL HLDGS it is €0.1800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €0.2800. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HOPSON DEVL HLDGS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HVP trades above its calculated fair value: price €0.2800, fair value €0.1800, a gap of about −36% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HVP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€0.2800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.1800). For HOPSON DEVL HLDGS the two are €0.1000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HOPSON DEVL HLDGS worth?
The market values HOPSON DEVL HLDGS at about €4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €0.2800; our models calculate a fair value of €0.1800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HVP?
Our models span a range for HOPSON DEVL HLDGS: cautious scenario €0.0800, base €0.1800, optimistic €0.2800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €0.2800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP)?
Balance-sheet figures for HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (as of Sep 24, 2026): debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HVP from its 52-week high?
HOPSON DEVL HLDGS trades at €0.2800, about 32% below its 52-week high of €0.4120 and at the low of €0.2800 (as of Jul 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.1800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HOPSON DEVL HLDGS?
From the same area (Other) we also value 542772, 590024, Indiabulls Real Estate Limited, 542851, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HOPSON DEVL HLDGS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €0.2800, calculated fair value €0.1800 (−36%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HVP calculated?
We run HOPSON DEVL HLDGS through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.1800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. HOPSON DEVL HLDGS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 17, 2026 and stands at €0.2800. Our model-based fair value is €0.1800, about −36% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HOPSON DEVL HLDGS right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€0.0800 to €0.2800). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS
How large is the market capitalisation of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP)?
The market capitalisation of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS is €4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the net margin of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP)?
The net margin of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS is 0.3% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP) generate?
The free cash flow of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS is HK$8.5B (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does HOPSON DEVL HLDGS (HVP) carry?
The net debt of HOPSON DEVL HLDGS is HK$67.1B (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 7.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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