Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Howden Joinery Group Plc stock £9.04, price £8.50, upside +6.4%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £4.25 – £9.44 · fair‑value band £6.81 – £11.77 · the £8.50 price screens below the £9.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
Follow Howden Joinery Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Howden Joinery Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Howden Joinery Group Plc supplies various kitchen, joinery, and hardware products in the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and the Republic of Ireland.
Show moreShow less
The company's product portfolio includes cabinet, worktops, sinks and taps, flooring, appliances, and handles; internal and external doors, such as fire doors, flooring, stair parts, and general joinery items; and cooking, cleaning, and cooling appliances.
The company was formerly known as Galiform Plc and changed its name to Howden Joinery Group Plc in September 2010. Howden Joinery Group Plc was incorporated in 1987 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN) currently trades at £8.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £9.04, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.0%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £9.56 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the £8.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.39, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £6.81 (bear) to £11.77 (bull), the price of £8.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Howden Joinery Group Plc reported revenue of £2.4B in FY2025 versus £2.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was £268M in FY2025, compounding −3.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap £4.6B Mid · P/E ratio 17.3 · P/S ratio 1.89 · EPS (TTM) £0.4900 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 10.9% · Return on equity 23.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 6%, HWDN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£6.81Fair Value £9.04Bull£11.77
Price £8.50 · Upside +6.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.2345 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.0% vs 6.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.5% a year for the price and +4.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (71 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Solid margins and cash flow stand out as the core strength, while limited public evidence on sources of competitive advantage remains the key weakness.
Main risk: The new direct-to-consumer channel risks adding operational complexity that could strain the established trade-only depot model and pressure margins.
Howden keeps buying back its own shares in early October while expecting the UK kitchen market to stay level this year. The core trade-only depot model still delivers modest profit growth, yet the company has also added a direct-to-consumer channel through its recent acquisition. Will the ongoing capital returns reinforce the existing strengths more than the new online exposure adds complexity, or the reverse?
Compare Howden Joinery Group Plc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 306 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Howden Joinery Group Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HWDN
Frequently asked questions
Is Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £9.04 versus a price of £8.50, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HWDN?
Our model-based fair value for Howden Joinery Group Plc is £9.04 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £8.50.
What is the quality score of HWDN?
Howden Joinery Group Plc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £9.04 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £6.81, optimistic scenario £11.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Howden Joinery Group Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £9.04, about +6% upside versus a price of £8.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £6.81, optimistic scenario £11.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
Howden Joinery Group Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Howden Joinery Group Plc pay a dividend?
Howden Joinery Group Plc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.59% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Howden Joinery Group Plc pays a dividend of £0.22 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2012. The payout ratio is 44.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.87 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Howden Joinery Group Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.3 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HWDN use?
Our models discount Howden Joinery Group Plc at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Howden Joinery Group Plc that is +3.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Howden Joinery Group Plc grew +9.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +3.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Howden Joinery Group Plc (+3.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.39 %: that much free cash flow Howden Joinery Group Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Howden Joinery Group Plc it is £9.04 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of £8.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Howden Joinery Group Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, HWDN trades below its calculated fair value: price £8.50, fair value £9.04, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HWDN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£8.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£9.04). For Howden Joinery Group Plc the two are £0.5400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Howden Joinery Group Plc worth?
The market values Howden Joinery Group Plc at about £4.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is £8.50; our models calculate a fair value of £9.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HWDN?
Our models span a range for Howden Joinery Group Plc: cautious scenario £6.81, base £9.04, optimistic £11.77 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price £8.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HWDN?
Howden Joinery Group Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.3 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £9.04 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 17.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 3.9, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of HWDN?
The PEG ratio of Howden Joinery Group Plc is 1.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Howden Joinery Group Plc (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 23.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HWDN from its 52-week high?
Howden Joinery Group Plc trades at £8.50, about 10% below its 52-week high of £9.44 and 18% above the low of £7.19 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £9.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Howden Joinery Group Plc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, SharkNinja, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Howden Joinery Group Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price £8.50, calculated fair value £9.04 (+6%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HWDN calculated?
We run Howden Joinery Group Plc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £9.04 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Howden Joinery Group Plc currently trades 6% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was £8.50. Our model-based fair value is £9.04, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Howden Joinery Group Plc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN) come from?
Earnings per share at Howden Joinery Group Plc grew +6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.6 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Howden Joinery Group Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
The market capitalisation of Howden Joinery Group Plc is £4.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Howden Joinery Group Plc is 1.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
Earnings per share at Howden Joinery Group Plc are £0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
The dividend yield of Howden Joinery Group Plc is 2.6% (payout 44.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
The net margin of Howden Joinery Group Plc is 10.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Howden Joinery Group Plc is 23.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Howden Joinery Group Plc is 17.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
The operating margin of Howden Joinery Group Plc is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
Revenue at Howden Joinery Group Plc is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN)?
Earnings per share at Howden Joinery Group Plc are growing −1.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Howden Joinery Group Plc (HWDN) carry?
The net debt of Howden Joinery Group Plc is £968M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Howden Joinery Group Plc in the live analysis
One click puts Howden Joinery Group Plc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 12, 2026