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Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 155B CNY

GS Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 · SHG
Price¥180.00
Fair Value¥38.95
Upside-78.4%
Quality51/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 12.7% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Wide moat 70/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥29.21 – ¥124.42 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +12.2% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥124.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (¥29.21 to ¥124.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥180.00 ¥11.33 Fair Value ¥38.95 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥11.33 – ¥180.00 · fair‑value band ¥29.21 – ¥124.42 · the ¥180.00 price screens above the ¥38.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) currently trades at ¥180.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥38.95, implying the stock looks roughly 78.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co generated revenue of 27.6B CNY at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue grew 199.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 66.4%. Net debt stands at 13.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥29.21 (bear case) to ¥124.42 (bull case); at ¥180.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 385% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -78%, 603268 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥20.62 ¥30.50 ¥294.43 76
ROIC Compounder ¥42.90 ¥60.90 ¥84.07 72
Gordon GGM ¥2.98 ¥6.19 ¥9.83 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥18.59 ¥129.68 ¥181.98 54
Lynch FV ¥67.00 ¥95.71 ¥124.42 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥67.00 ¥95.71 ¥124.42 46
EPV ¥35.36 ¥40.64 ¥45.26 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥2.98 ¥6.19 ¥9.83 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥2.98 ¥5.22 ¥6.50 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥41.02 ¥54.69 ¥68.36 63
P/S Multiple ¥34.87 ¥46.49 ¥58.11 58
P/B Multiple ¥21.91 ¥29.21 ¥36.51 55
EV/EBIT ¥55.91 ¥73.32 ¥90.73 53
EV/EBITDA ¥46.42 ¥60.66 ¥74.91 54
EV/Revenue ¥38.89 ¥53.97 ¥69.06 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥4.87 ¥6.52 ¥9.74 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥20.62 ¥30.50 ¥294.43 76
ROIC Compounder ¥42.90 ¥60.90 ¥84.07 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥86.33 ¥123.33 ¥160.32 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥123.33) versus Dividend Discount (¥5.22). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 27.6B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +199%
Net margin 12.7%
Return on equity 66.4%
Free cash flow −11.1B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 69.3
More key figures
Operating margin 18.4%
EPS (TTM) ¥2.05
EPS growth (YoY) -44.9%
Net debt 13.4B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 86
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 58
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 94
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. produces and sells ceramic products in China and internationally. The company offers tableware in various styles, including garden flowers, ocean's songs, starry sky, and minimalism; kitchenware in various types, such as modern bakeware, vichy check pattern, dopamine colors, and slate series.

Full company description

Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. produces and sells ceramic products in China and internationally. The company offers tableware in various styles, including garden flowers, ocean's songs, starry sky, and minimalism; kitchenware in various types, such as modern bakeware, vichy check pattern, dopamine colors, and slate series. It also provides coffee and tea ware in checkboard, French romance, bubbles, and tropical rainforest styles; and serving wares. Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Chaozhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co reported revenue of ¥21.6B in FY2025 versus ¥403M in FY2021, a compound +170.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.7B in FY2025.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
21.6B CNY
Latest YoY
+7,772.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+330.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+117.3%
Avg. growth/yr (14Y)
+36.3%
Revenue +170.7%/yr
FY21 ¥403M
FY22 ¥271M
FY23 ¥206M
FY24 ¥275M
FY25 ¥21.6B
Net income
FY21 −¥309M
FY22 −¥171M
FY23 −¥117M
FY24 −¥76.6M
FY25 ¥2.7B

603268 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603268

Peer Group

Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 311 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Above median
Fair Value upside −78% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 66% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 199% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.39× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 78.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 16.38× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 5.62× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 27.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 21
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 100 · sector 19
HEALTH 81 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 55

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Midea Group 000333 ¥82.71 ¥107.22 +30%
Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 ¥38.25 ¥88.02 +130%
Haier Smart Home Co 600690 ¥21.46 ¥36.04 +68%
King Slide Works Co 2059 8,655 TWD 1,917 TWD -78%
SharkNinja, Inc SN $154.53 $89.07 -42%
Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 ¥26.33 ¥48.03 +82%
Zhejiang Supor Co 002032 ¥43.85 ¥44.84 +2%
COWAY Co 021240 96,700 KRW 112,530 KRW +16%
Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 ¥50.13 ¥54.11 +8%
Voltas Limited VOLTAS ₹1,350 ₹185.71 -86%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥38.95 versus a price of ¥180.00, about −78% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603268?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is ¥38.95 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥180.00.
What is the quality score of 603268?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co has a Quality Score of 51/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 27.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603268?
The net profit margin of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is about 12.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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