Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co stock ¥31.45, price ¥155, that is 79.6% below the price, quality 36 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.33 – ¥221.55 · fair‑value band ¥20.80 – ¥38.11 · the ¥154.53 price screens above the ¥31.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. produces and sells ceramic products in China and internationally.
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The company offers tableware in various styles, including garden flowers, ocean's songs, starry sky, and minimalism; kitchenware in various types, such as modern bakeware, vichy check pattern, dopamine colors, and slate series.
It also provides coffee and tea ware in checkboard, French romance, bubbles, and tropical rainforest styles; and serving wares. Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Chaozhou, China.
Stock analysis
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) currently trades at ¥154.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥31.45, 80% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥43.30 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the ¥154.53 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥3.21, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥20.80 (bear) to ¥38.11 (bull), the price of ¥154.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co reported revenue of 21.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 403M CNY in FY2021, a compound +170.7%/yr. Reported net income was 2.7B CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 168B CNY (≈ $25.2B) Large · P/E ratio 20.4 · P/S ratio 3.52 · EPS (TTM) ¥7.56 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 16.9% · Return on equity 51.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −18.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 150% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −80%, 603268 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (¥3.21 to ¥57.33). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear¥20.80Fair Value ¥31.45Bull¥38.11
Price ¥154.53 · Downside -79.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥6.42 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income¥14.87¥17.01¥24.3876
EPV¥34.67¥40.06¥44.8374
ROIC Compounder¥34.67¥40.85¥46.7572
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥17.72¥21.66¥24.3667
EPV¥34.67¥40.06¥44.8374
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥2.93¥3.21¥3.6569
DDM Multi-Stage¥2.93¥3.71¥4.8467
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥43.00¥57.33¥71.6663
P/S Multiple¥19.11¥25.49¥31.8658
P/B Multiple¥22.42¥29.89¥37.3655
EV/EBIT¥36.65¥53.24¥69.8465
EV/EBITDA¥24.47¥37.00¥49.5366
EV/Revenue¥4.72¥12.37¥20.0150
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥3.74¥5.01¥7.4754
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥14.87¥17.01¥24.3876
ROIC Compounder¥34.67¥40.85¥46.7572
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥30.31¥43.30¥56.2967
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7,772.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+330.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+117.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +53.9% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +89.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +89.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 89.6% / 24.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 17%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.12 per share, median 0.32 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 298 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603268
Frequently asked questions
Is Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥31.45 versus a price of ¥154.53, about 80% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603268?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is ¥31.45 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥154.53.
What is the quality score of 603268?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥31.45 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥20.80, optimistic scenario ¥38.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥31.45, about 80% lower versus a price of ¥154.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥20.80, optimistic scenario ¥38.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 47.7B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co pay a dividend?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co currently shows a dividend yield of 0.19% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co it is ¥31.45 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of ¥154.53. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, 603268 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥154.53, fair value ¥31.45, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603268?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥154.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥31.45). For Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co the two are ¥123.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co worth?
The market values Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co at about 168B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is ¥154.53; our models calculate a fair value of ¥31.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603268?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co: cautious scenario ¥20.80, base ¥31.45, optimistic ¥38.11 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price ¥154.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603268?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥31.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 17.7, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 14.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 51.8%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603268 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co trades at ¥154.53, about 30% below its 52-week high of ¥221.55 and 150% above the low of ¥61.89 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥31.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, SharkNinja, Inc, King Slide Works Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price ¥154.53, calculated fair value ¥31.45 (−80%), Quality Score 36/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603268 calculated?
We run Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥31.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥154.53. Our model-based fair value is ¥31.45, about 80% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥38.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (¥20.80 to ¥38.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
The market capitalisation of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is 168B CNY (≈ $25.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is 3.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co are ¥7.56 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
The dividend yield of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is 0.2% (payout 3.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
The net margin of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is 16.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is 51.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is −18.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
The operating margin of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is 28.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Revenue at Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is growing +181% versus a year earlier (3y avg +331%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Earnings per share at Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co are growing +339% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) generate?
The free cash flow of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is −11.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) carry?
The net debt of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is 13.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026