Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 155B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +12.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥124.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥29.21 to ¥124.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.33 – ¥180.00 · fair‑value band ¥29.21 – ¥124.42 · the ¥180.00 price screens above the ¥38.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) currently trades at ¥180.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥38.95, implying the stock looks roughly 78.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co generated revenue of 27.6B CNY at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue grew 199.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 66.4%. Net debt stands at 13.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥29.21 (bear case) to ¥124.42 (bull case); at ¥180.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 385% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at -78%, 603268 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥123.33) versus Dividend Discount (¥5.22). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. produces and sells ceramic products in China and internationally. The company offers tableware in various styles, including garden flowers, ocean's songs, starry sky, and minimalism; kitchenware in various types, such as modern bakeware, vichy check pattern, dopamine colors, and slate series.
Full company description
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. produces and sells ceramic products in China and internationally. The company offers tableware in various styles, including garden flowers, ocean's songs, starry sky, and minimalism; kitchenware in various types, such as modern bakeware, vichy check pattern, dopamine colors, and slate series. It also provides coffee and tea ware in checkboard, French romance, bubbles, and tropical rainforest styles; and serving wares. Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Chaozhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co reported revenue of ¥21.6B in FY2025 versus ¥403M in FY2021, a compound +170.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.7B in FY2025.
603268 screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →
Peer Group
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 311 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midea Group 000333 | ¥82.71 | ¥107.22 | +30% |
| Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 | ¥38.25 | ¥88.02 | +130% |
| Haier Smart Home Co 600690 | ¥21.46 | ¥36.04 | +68% |
| King Slide Works Co 2059 | 8,655 TWD | 1,917 TWD | -78% |
| SharkNinja, Inc SN | $154.53 | $89.07 | -42% |
| Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 | ¥26.33 | ¥48.03 | +82% |
| Zhejiang Supor Co 002032 | ¥43.85 | ¥44.84 | +2% |
| COWAY Co 021240 | 96,700 KRW | 112,530 KRW | +16% |
| Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 | ¥50.13 | ¥54.11 | +8% |
| Voltas Limited VOLTAS | ₹1,350 | ₹185.71 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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