IGO Ltd (IGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of IGO Ltd A$7.15, price A$6.35, upside +12.6%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.10 – A$14.56 · fair‑value band A$4.53 – A$10.33 · the A$6.35 price screens below the A$7.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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IGO Limited, together with its subsidiaries, discovers, develops, and delivers battery minerals in Australia. It operates through Nova Operation, Forrestania Operation, Cosmos Project, Lithium Business, and Growth segments. The company explores for nickel, lithium, copper, cobalt, and silver deposits.
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IGO Limited, together with its subsidiaries, discovers, develops, and delivers battery minerals in Australia. It operates through Nova Operation, Forrestania Operation, Cosmos Project, Lithium Business, and Growth segments. The company explores for nickel, lithium, copper, cobalt, and silver deposits. It is also involved in exploration, business development, and project evaluation activities, as well as sale of concentrates. The company was formerly known as Independence Group NL and changed its name to IGO Limited in January 2020. IGO Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
IGO Ltd (IGO) currently trades at A$6.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.15, implying the stock looks roughly 11.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$8.26 per share, and 6 of the 23 models we run sit above the A$6.35 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$1.39, and 17 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$4.53 (bear) to A$10.33 (bull), the price of A$6.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
IGO Ltd reported revenue of A$442M in FY2026 versus A$845M in FY2022, a compound −14.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$145M in FY2026, compounding −18.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$4.8B (≈ $3.4B) · P/E ratio 33.3 · P/S ratio 10.9 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1910 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 32.9% · Return on equity 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 13%, IGO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$4.53Fair Value A$7.15Bull A$10.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0357 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.9% vs 0.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → −32%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 444 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+12.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.7% · Above median
Return on assets−3.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)31.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−12.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.8% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "IGO Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IGO
Frequently asked questions
Is IGO Ltd (IGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$7.15 versus a price of A$6.35, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of IGO?
Our model-based fair value for IGO Ltd is A$7.15 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$6.35.
What is the quality score of IGO?
IGO Ltd has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for IGO Ltd (IGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$7.15 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$4.53, optimistic scenario A$10.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the IGO Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$7.15, about +13% upside versus a price of A$6.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$4.53, optimistic scenario A$10.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
IGO Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$463M (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does IGO Ltd pay a dividend?
IGO Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.79% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into IGO Ltd (IGO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, IGO Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +16.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.5 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IGO use?
Our models discount IGO Ltd at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For IGO Ltd that is +16.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has IGO Ltd (IGO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at IGO Ltd grew -6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +16.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of IGO Ltd (IGO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into IGO Ltd (+16.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.72 %: that much free cash flow IGO Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For IGO Ltd it is A$7.15 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of A$6.35. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is IGO Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, IGO trades below its calculated fair value: price A$6.35, fair value A$7.15, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$6.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$7.15). For IGO Ltd the two are A$0.8000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is IGO Ltd worth?
The market values IGO Ltd at about A$4.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is A$6.35; our models calculate a fair value of A$7.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IGO?
Our models span a range for IGO Ltd: cautious scenario A$4.53, base A$7.15, optimistic A$10.33 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price A$6.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IGO?
IGO Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.3 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$7.15 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 44.4 (reported 33.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 36.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 2.2, P/S 10.4, EV/EBITDA 85.8.
What is the PEG ratio of IGO?
The PEG ratio of IGO Ltd is 0.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for IGO Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 6.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IGO from its 52-week high?
IGO Ltd trades at A$6.35, about 36% below its 52-week high of A$9.97 and 29% above the low of A$4.93 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$7.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to IGO Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is IGO Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price A$6.35, calculated fair value A$7.15 (+13%), Quality Score 71/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IGO calculated?
We run IGO Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$7.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. IGO Ltd currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was A$6.35. Our model-based fair value is A$7.15, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with IGO Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (A$4.53 to A$10.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of IGO Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
The market capitalisation of IGO Ltd is A$4.8B (≈ $3.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of IGO Ltd is 10.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
Earnings per share at IGO Ltd are A$0.1910 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
The dividend yield of IGO Ltd is 0.8% (payout 35.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 26.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
The net margin of IGO Ltd is 32.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of IGO Ltd is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of IGO Ltd is −2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of IGO Ltd (IGO)?
The operating margin of IGO Ltd is −12.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at IGO Ltd (IGO)?
Revenue at IGO Ltd is growing +10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −25.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at IGO Ltd (IGO)?
Earnings per share at IGO Ltd are growing −52.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does IGO Ltd (IGO) hold?
IGO Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$370M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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