InnovAge Holding (INNV) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $1.2B

A solid business, but screening 80% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range ($1.51 to $3.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.63 – $25.87 · fair‑value band $1.51 – $3.04 · the $11.18 price screens above the $2.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

InnovAge Holding (INNV) currently trades at $11.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.28, implying the stock looks roughly 79.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, InnovAge Holding generated revenue of $949M at a net margin of -1.2%. Revenue grew 15.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.9%. Net debt stands at $36.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $1.51 (bear case) to $3.04 (bull case); at $11.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 257% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -80%, INNV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($4.25) versus Asset-Based ($1.16). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

InnovAge Holding Corp. manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and support to live independently in its homes and communities. It manages its business through Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) approach.

Full company description

InnovAge Holding Corp. manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and support to live independently in its homes and communities. It manages its business through Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) approach. The company also offers in-home care services consisting of skilled, unskilled, and personal care; in-center services, such as primary care, physical therapy, occupational therapy, speech therapy, dental services, mental health and psychiatric services, meals, and activities; transportation to and from the PACE center and third-party medical appointments; and care management. It serves participants in the United States; and operates PACE centers in Colorado, California, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia. The company was formerly known as TCO Group Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to InnovAge Holding Corp. in January 2021. InnovAge Holding Corp. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

InnovAge Holding reported revenue of $854M in FY2025 versus $638M in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$30.3M in FY2025.

INNV screens 80% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →

Peer Group

Medical Care Facilities · 262 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.