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Ioneer Ltd (INR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ioneer Ltd stock A$0.01, price A$0.10, upside -87.0%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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IL
Thin data
Oct 26, 2026
Thin data
Oct 26, 2026
Ioneer Ltd
INR · AUWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
Our calculation puts a fair price 87% below what the stock costs today.
Insider activity 45/100
Fair value A$0.0126 · Strongly overvalued (−87.0%)
Quality 39/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −93.7 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/6)
Narrow moat 10/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0930 – A$0.8500 · the A$0.0970 price screens above the A$0.0126 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Company profile
ioneer Ltd operates as a mineral exploration and development company in North America. It engages in the development of the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron project located in Nevada, the United States.
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The company was formerly known as Global Geoscience Limited and changed its name to ioneer Ltd in November 2018. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in North Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
Ioneer Ltd (INR) currently trades at A$0.0970, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0126, 87.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Ioneer Ltd reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$8.4M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$298M (≈ $209M) Micro · Return on equity −399% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.5% · Operating margin −608% · Revenue (TTM) A$656K · Revenue growth (YoY) −69.8% · Free cash flow −$2.9M · Net cash $17.5M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −87%, INR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)
n/a
A$0.0100
A$0.0100
50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
n/a
A$0.0100
A$0.0100
50
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
39/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability
3
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth
52
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow
0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength
81
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment
76
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility
37
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum
12
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high
2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares
45
Buys back shares or issues new ones?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−99.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−93.7%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−66.1%
’06
’07
’08
’09
’10
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’15
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’20
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−6,304.6% (2015) → −57,600,630,000.0% (2020)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
INR screens overvalued: fair value 87% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 384 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Valuation of the Australia market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedanta Limited VEDL | ₹236.85 | ₹613.43 | +159% | vs INR |
| Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 | ¥31.74 | ¥54.86 | +73% | vs INR |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥14.15 | ¥19.48 | +38% | vs INR |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 52.10 SAR | 57.31 SAR | +10% | vs INR |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹496.00 | ₹545.60 | +10% | vs INR |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥31.67 | ¥34.84 | +10% | vs INR |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 508.40 | kr 464.45 | −9% | vs INR |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 913,000 KRW | 649,125 KRW | −29% | vs INR |
| Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN | C$9.16 | C$4.44 | −52% | vs INR |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥44.00 | ¥4.44 | −90% | vs INR |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Ioneer Ltd (INR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0126 versus a price of A$0.0970, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of INR?
Our model-based fair value for Ioneer Ltd is A$0.0126 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0970.
What is the quality score of INR?
Ioneer Ltd has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ioneer Ltd (INR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0126 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ioneer Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0126, about −87% upside versus a price of A$0.0970 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ioneer Ltd (INR)?
Ioneer Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$656K (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ioneer Ltd (INR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ioneer Ltd it is A$0.0126 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of A$0.0970. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ioneer Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, INR trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0970, fair value A$0.0126, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of INR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0970); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0126). For Ioneer Ltd the two are A$0.0844 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ioneer Ltd worth?
The market values Ioneer Ltd at about A$298M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0970; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0126 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ioneer Ltd (INR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ioneer Ltd (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity −398.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is INR from its 52-week high?
Ioneer Ltd trades at A$0.0970, about 58% below its 52-week high of A$0.2300 and 4% above the low of A$0.0930 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0126 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ioneer Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ioneer Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price A$0.0970, calculated fair value A$0.0126 (−87%), Quality Score 39/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of INR calculated?
We run Ioneer Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0126, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Ioneer Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ioneer Ltd (INR)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was A$0.0970. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0126, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ioneer Ltd right now?
Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Ioneer Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Ioneer Ltd (INR)?
The market capitalisation of Ioneer Ltd is A$298M (≈ $209M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Ioneer Ltd (INR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ioneer Ltd is −399% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ioneer Ltd (INR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ioneer Ltd is −3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ioneer Ltd (INR)?
The operating margin of Ioneer Ltd is −608% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ioneer Ltd (INR)?
Revenue at Ioneer Ltd is growing −69.8% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ioneer Ltd (INR) generate?
The free cash flow of Ioneer Ltd is −$2.9M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ioneer Ltd (INR) hold?
Ioneer Ltd holds more cash than debt, $17.5M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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