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Valneva SE (INRLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Valneva SE $0.34, price $3.37, upside -89.9%, quality 24 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN FR0004056851

VS Valneva SE logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Valneva SE

INRLF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $0.3400 · Strongly overvalued (−89.9%)
!Quality 24/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -88.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$33.30 $1.88 Fair Value $0.3400 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.88 – $33.30 · fair‑value band $0.2500 – $0.5100 · the $3.37 price screens above the $0.3400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, develops, manufactures, and commercializes prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs.

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Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, develops, manufactures, and commercializes prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs. It offers IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis vaccine indicated for active immunization against Japanese encephalitis; DUKORAL, an oral vaccine for the prevention of diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholera or heat-labile toxin producing enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli bacterium; and IXCHIQ/ VLA1553, a single-dose, live-attenuated vaccine for the prevention of disease caused by chikungunya virus. The company also develops VLA15, a vaccine candidate against Borrelia, the bacterium that causes Lyme disease; S4V2, a tetravalent bioconjugate vaccine candidate against shigellosis, a diarrheal infection caused by Shigella bacteria; VLA1601, a vaccine candidate targeting the Zika virus, a mosquito-borne viral disease; VLA1554, a vaccine candidate targeting human metapneumovirus; VLA84, a vaccine candidate targeting the prevention of primary symptomatic clostridium difficile infection; and VLA2112, a vaccine candidate to treat patients with epstein-barr virus. It sells its products in the United States, Canada, Germany, Austria, Nordics, the United Kingdom, France, rest of Europe, and internationally. Valneva SE was founded in 1998 and is based in Saint-Herblain, France.

Stock analysis

Valneva SE (INRLF) currently trades at $3.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3400, 89.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.2500 (bear) to $0.5100 (bull), the price of $3.37 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Valneva SE reported revenue of €175M in FY2025 versus €348M in FY2021, a compound −15.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€115M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $567M · P/S ratio 3.13 · EPS (TTM) $−0.9300 · Net margin −66.0% · Return on equity −110% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.3% · Operating margin −76.7% · Revenue (TTM) €156M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −90%, INRLF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.2500 Fair Value $0.3400 Bull $0.5100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.3200 $0.4200 $0.6300 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3200 $0.4200 $0.6300 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 24 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 16
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 26/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.3% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−50.0% (2020) → −46.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

INRLF screens overvalued: fair value 90% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,354,000 KRW 1,489,400 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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Valneva SE · Fair Value
$0.3400 −90%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Valneva SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/INRLF

Frequently asked questions

Is Valneva SE (INRLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3400 versus a price of $3.37, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of INRLF?
Our model-based fair value for Valneva SE is $0.3400 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.37.
What is the quality score of INRLF?
Valneva SE has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Valneva SE (INRLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3400 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2500, optimistic scenario $0.5100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Valneva SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3400, about −90% upside versus a price of $3.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2500, optimistic scenario $0.5100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Valneva SE (INRLF)?
Valneva SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €156M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Valneva SE (INRLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Valneva SE it is $0.3400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.37. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Valneva SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, INRLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.37, fair value $0.3400, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of INRLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3400). For Valneva SE the two are $3.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Valneva SE worth?
The market values Valneva SE at about $567M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.37; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about INRLF?
Our models span a range for Valneva SE: cautious scenario $0.2500, base $0.3400, optimistic $0.5100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is INRLF from its 52-week high?
Valneva SE trades at $3.37, about 43% below its 52-week high of $5.90 and 39% above the low of $2.43 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Valneva SE?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Valneva SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.37, calculated fair value $0.3400 (−90%), Quality Score 24/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of INRLF calculated?
We run Valneva SE through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Valneva SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Valneva SE (INRLF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.37. Our model-based fair value is $0.3400, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Valneva SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.5100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (24/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.2500 to $0.5100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Valneva SE

How large is the market capitalisation of Valneva SE (INRLF)?
The market capitalisation of Valneva SE is $567M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Valneva SE (INRLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Valneva SE is 3.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Valneva SE (INRLF)?
Earnings per share at Valneva SE are $−0.9300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Valneva SE (INRLF)?
The net margin of Valneva SE is −66.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Valneva SE (INRLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Valneva SE is −110% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Valneva SE (INRLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Valneva SE is −12.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Valneva SE (INRLF)?
The operating margin of Valneva SE is −76.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Valneva SE (INRLF)?
Revenue at Valneva SE is growing −37.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Valneva SE (INRLF)?
Earnings per share at Valneva SE are growing −93.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Valneva SE (INRLF) generate?
The free cash flow of Valneva SE is −€57.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Valneva SE (INRLF) carry?
The net debt of Valneva SE is €97.6M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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