Inpex Corp (IPXHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 12, 2026: fair value of Inpex Corp $31.44, price $23.12, upside +36.0%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.94 – $30.66 · fair‑value band $23.58 – $39.30 · the $23.12 price screens below the $31.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
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Inpex Corporation engages in the research, exploration, development, production, and sale of oil, natural gas, and other mineral resources in Japan and internationally. It is involved in investment and lending to companies engaged in mineral resources business.
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Inpex Corporation engages in the research, exploration, development, production, and sale of oil, natural gas, and other mineral resources in Japan and internationally. It is involved in investment and lending to companies engaged in mineral resources business. The company also transports natural gas, as well as oil; operates, manages, and maintains gas pipelines. In addition, it engages in gas, heat, and electricity supply business; manufacture, processing, and sale of drilling mud water conditioners and cement additives; development and management of geothermal projects; power generation and supply; real estate management, lease, brokerage, and sales; and contracting for excavation work of oil and geothermal wells, and diameter foundation works. The company was formerly known as Inpex Holdings, Inc. Inpex Corporation was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
Inpex Corp ADR (IPXHY) currently trades at $23.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.44, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $46.95 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the $23.12 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $15.35, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $23.58 (bear) to $39.30 (bull), the price of $23.12 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Inpex Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥2.1T in FY2025 versus ¥1.2T in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥413B in FY2025, compounding +16.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $27.5B · P/E ratio 11.2 · P/S ratio 2.20 · EPS (TTM) $2.06 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 19.6% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 36%, IPXHY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $23.58Fair Value $31.44Bull $39.30
Price $23.12 · Upside +36.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+24.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.1% vs 27.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 50%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.1% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (54 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Scale and cash metrics offer modest support yet commodity exposure prevents any durable moat from forming.
Main risk: Frontier exploration and transition spending risk spreading resources thin and lifting capital needs faster than output growth.
INPEX recently secured interests in the Agung I and II exploration blocks offshore eastern Java. This adds to its growing LNG exposure in Australia and ongoing low-carbon projects like CCS. The tension lies in whether these expansions build a more resilient production base or spread resources too thin across frontier risks and transition costs. Will the new acreage accelerate output growth faster than it raises capital needs?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 271 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+36.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.3% · Above median
Return on assets8.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)19.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)48.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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As of Oct 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.44 versus a price of $23.12, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of IPXHY?
Our model-based fair value for Inpex Corp ADR is $31.44 (as of Oct 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.12.
What is the quality score of IPXHY?
Inpex Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.44 (as of Oct 12, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.58, optimistic scenario $39.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Inpex Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.44, about +36% upside versus a price of $23.12 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $23.58, optimistic scenario $39.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
Inpex Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.0T (latest available figure, as of Oct 12, 2026).
Does Inpex Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Inpex Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.03% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 12, 2026).
What growth is priced into Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Inpex Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -9.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.3 % per year. As of Oct 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IPXHY use?
Our models discount Inpex Corp ADR at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Inpex Corp ADR that is -9.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Inpex Corp (IPXHY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Inpex Corp ADR grew +22.3 % a year. The price currently implies -9.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Inpex Corp (IPXHY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Inpex Corp ADR (-9.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.64 %: that much free cash flow Inpex Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Inpex Corp ADR it is $31.44 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026), against a price of $23.12. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Inpex Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, IPXHY trades below its calculated fair value: price $23.12, fair value $31.44, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IPXHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.44). For Inpex Corp ADR the two are $8.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Inpex Corp ADR worth?
The market values Inpex Corp ADR at about $27.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 12, 2026). Per share that is $23.12; our models calculate a fair value of $31.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IPXHY?
Our models span a range for Inpex Corp ADR: cautious scenario $23.58, base $31.44, optimistic $39.30 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026, price $23.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IPXHY?
Inpex Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 (as of Oct 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Inpex Corp ADR (as of Oct 12, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IPXHY from its 52-week high?
Inpex Corp ADR trades at $23.12, about 25% below its 52-week high of $30.66 and 39% above the low of $16.67 (as of Oct 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Inpex Corp ADR?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Inpex Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 12, 2026: price $23.12, calculated fair value $31.44 (+36%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IPXHY calculated?
We run Inpex Corp ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $31.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Inpex Corp ADR currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
The closing price on Oct 12, 2026 was $23.12. Our model-based fair value is $31.44, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Inpex Corp ADR right now?
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits below our cautious bear case: the market assumes less than even our pessimistic scenario. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Inpex Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
The market capitalisation of Inpex Corp ADR is $27.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Inpex Corp ADR is 2.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
Earnings per share at Inpex Corp ADR are $2.06 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
The dividend yield of Inpex Corp ADR is 3.0% (payout 34.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
The net margin of Inpex Corp ADR is 19.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Inpex Corp ADR is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Inpex Corp ADR is 16.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
The operating margin of Inpex Corp ADR is 48.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
Revenue at Inpex Corp ADR is growing −6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Inpex Corp (IPXHY)?
Earnings per share at Inpex Corp ADR are growing −10.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Inpex Corp (IPXHY) carry?
The net debt of Inpex Corp ADR is ¥1.1T (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 12, 2026