Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Woodside Petroleum Ltd $20.37, price $24.66, upside -17.4%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.44 – $25.00 · fair‑value band $15.31 – $20.37 · the $24.66 price screens above the $20.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Woodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of hydrocarbons in the Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas, and the Europe. It produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline gas, crude oil and condensate, and natural gas liquids.
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Woodside Energy Group Ltd engages in the exploration, evaluation, development, production, marketing, and sale of hydrocarbons in the Asia Pacific, Africa, the Americas, and the Europe. It produces liquefied natural gas, pipeline gas, crude oil and condensate, and natural gas liquids. The company holds interests in the Pluto LNG, North West Shelf, Wheatstone and Julimar-Brunello, Bass Strait, Ngujima-Yin FPSO, Okha FPSO, Pyrenees FPSO, Macedon, Shenzi, Mad dog, Greater Angostura, as well as Scarborough, Sangomar, Trion, Calypso, Browse, Liard, Ruby, Sangomar, Atlantis, Woodside Solar opportunity, and Sunrise and Troubadour. It is also involved in the development of new energy products and lower-carbon services. The company was formerly known as Woodside Petroleum Ltd and changed its name to Woodside Energy Group Ltd in May 2022. Woodside Energy Group Ltd was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF) currently trades at $24.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.37, implying the stock looks roughly 21.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $20.37 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the $24.66 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $8.46, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $15.31 (bear) to $20.37 (bull), the price of $24.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Woodside Petroleum Ltd reported revenue of $13.4B in FY2025 versus $7.0B in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was $2.8B in FY2025, compounding +9.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $47.2B · P/E ratio 13.8 · P/S ratio 2.90 · EPS (TTM) $1.42 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 21.0% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −17%, WOPEF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $15.31Fair Value $20.37Bull $20.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2195 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+9.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 26%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Above median
Fair Value upside−17% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)21% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $20.37 versus a price of $24.66, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WOPEF?
Our model-based fair value for Woodside Petroleum Ltd is $20.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.66.
What is the quality score of WOPEF?
Woodside Petroleum Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $20.37 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.31, optimistic scenario $20.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Woodside Petroleum Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $20.37, about −17% upside versus a price of $24.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.31, optimistic scenario $20.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
Woodside Petroleum Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Woodside Petroleum Ltd pay a dividend?
Woodside Petroleum Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Woodside Petroleum Ltd it is $20.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $24.66. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Woodside Petroleum Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, WOPEF trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.66, fair value $20.37, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WOPEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($20.37). For Woodside Petroleum Ltd the two are $4.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Woodside Petroleum Ltd worth?
The market values Woodside Petroleum Ltd at about $47.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $24.66; our models calculate a fair value of $20.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WOPEF?
Our models span a range for Woodside Petroleum Ltd: cautious scenario $15.31, base $20.37, optimistic $20.37 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $24.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WOPEF?
Woodside Petroleum Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $20.37 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 1.3, P/S 3.6, EV/EBITDA 7.3.
What is the PEG ratio of WOPEF?
The PEG ratio of Woodside Petroleum Ltd is 1.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Woodside Petroleum Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WOPEF from its 52-week high?
Woodside Petroleum Ltd trades at $24.66, about 1% below its 52-week high of $25.00 and 85% above the low of $13.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $20.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Woodside Petroleum Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Woodside Petroleum Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $24.66, calculated fair value $20.37 (−17%), Quality Score 46/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WOPEF calculated?
We run Woodside Petroleum Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $20.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Woodside Petroleum Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $24.66. Our model-based fair value is $20.37, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Woodside Petroleum Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF) come from?
Earnings per share at Woodside Petroleum Ltd grew +0.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.7 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Woodside Petroleum Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
The market capitalisation of Woodside Petroleum Ltd is $47.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Woodside Petroleum Ltd is 2.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
Earnings per share at Woodside Petroleum Ltd are $1.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
The dividend yield of Woodside Petroleum Ltd is 4.5% (payout 78.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
The net margin of Woodside Petroleum Ltd is 21.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Woodside Petroleum Ltd is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Woodside Petroleum Ltd is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
The operating margin of Woodside Petroleum Ltd is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
Revenue at Woodside Petroleum Ltd is growing −11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF)?
Earnings per share at Woodside Petroleum Ltd are growing −14.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF) generate?
The free cash flow of Woodside Petroleum Ltd is −$1.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Woodside Petroleum Ltd (WOPEF) carry?
The net debt of Woodside Petroleum Ltd is $12.3B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026