Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Texas Pacific Land Corporation stock $299, price $272, upside +10.0%, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $104.84 – $570.13 · fair‑value band $161.20 – $457.10 · the $272.18 price screens below the $299.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Texas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The Land and Resource Management segment manages surface acres of land, and oil and gas royalty interest in Permian Basin.
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This segment also engages in easements, such as transporting oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility, and subsurface wellbore easements.
In addition, this segment leases its land for processing, storage, and compression facilities and roads; and is involved in sale of materials, such as caliche, sand, and other material, as well as sells land.
The Water Services and Operations segment provides full-service water offerings, including water sourcing, produced-water treatment, infrastructure development, and disposal solutions to operators in the Permian Basin. This segment also holds produced water royalties.
The company owns a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 33,000 additional net royalty acres, total of approximately 224,000 NRA located in the Permian Basin.
The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) currently trades at $272.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $299.40, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $187.31 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $272.18 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $37.22, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $161.20 (bear) to $457.10 (bull), the price of $272.18 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation reported revenue of $798M in FY2025 versus $451M in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was $481M in FY2025, compounding +15.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.8B Large · P/E ratio 32.0 · P/S ratio 19.4 · EPS (TTM) $8.51 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 60.7% · Return on equity 37.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 46.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 94 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, TPL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$161.20Fair Value $299.40Bull$457.10
Price $272.18 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $3,386, on Sep 15, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $1.6M.
BuyHORIZON KINETICS ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC10% owner220× since Nov 6, 2025: 230 shares, avg. $470.92$108,311Sep 29, 2026
BuyPeter DoyleDirector2× since Jun 15, 2026: 9 shares, avg. $376.22$3,386Sep 15, 2026
SaleChris SteddumChief Financial Officer4,000 shares at $400.27$1.6MJun 8, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDonna E EppsDirector895 shares at $510.08$456,522Feb 25, 2026
BuyDonna E EppsDirector895 shares at $510.45$456,853Feb 25, 2026
SaleStephanie BuffingtonChief Accounting Officer1,608 shares at $503.00$808,824Feb 24, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +26.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.7% vs 4.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.72% → 74%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.6% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The company's main strength lies in its asset-based moat from royalty holdings with high margins and zero debt, while its main weak point remains thin signals on human capital, innovation and insider activity.
Main risk: Tighter Texas Railroad Commission seismic response areas could limit injection volumes on or near TPL acreage and thereby reduce produced water royalty revenue and operator activity on its land.
Bull case: TPL could expand desalination, reuse and data-center water supply agreements to offset any disposal limits while its surface control attracts new power and compute projects.
Bear case: Persistent seismic restrictions combined with slower activity from its largest operators could shrink water and royalty volumes and leave the capital-light model with fewer high-margin streams.
Texas Pacific Land holds one of the largest royalty and surface positions in the Permian Basin, collecting high-margin revenue from oil and gas production plus water services without operating wells itself. This capital-light model supports steady cash generation tied to activity levels in the basin. Our models see it as overvalued. Will the scale of its land and royalty interests provide lasting resilience or will it need meaningful new uses for the acreage to maintain its edge?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)37.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets29.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)60.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)76.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)34.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Texas Pacific Land Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TPL
Frequently asked questions
Is Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $299.40 versus a price of $272.18, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TPL?
Our model-based fair value for Texas Pacific Land Corporation is $299.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $272.18.
What is the quality score of TPL?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $299.40 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $161.20, optimistic scenario $457.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Texas Pacific Land Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $299.40, about +10% upside versus a price of $272.18 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $161.20, optimistic scenario $457.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $968M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Texas Pacific Land Corporation pay a dividend?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Texas Pacific Land Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +17.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TPL use?
Our models discount Texas Pacific Land Corporation at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Texas Pacific Land Corporation that is +17.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Texas Pacific Land Corporation grew +21.4 % a year. The price currently implies +17.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Texas Pacific Land Corporation (+17.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.59 %: that much free cash flow Texas Pacific Land Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Texas Pacific Land Corporation it is $299.40 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $272.18. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Texas Pacific Land Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TPL trades below its calculated fair value: price $272.18, fair value $299.40, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TPL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($272.18); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($299.40). For Texas Pacific Land Corporation the two are $27.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Texas Pacific Land Corporation worth?
The market values Texas Pacific Land Corporation at about $18.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $272.18; our models calculate a fair value of $299.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TPL?
Our models span a range for Texas Pacific Land Corporation: cautious scenario $161.20, base $299.40, optimistic $457.10 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $272.18). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TPL?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $299.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.3, P/B 12.9, P/S 19.4, EV/EBITDA 23.1.
What is the PEG ratio of TPL?
The PEG ratio of Texas Pacific Land Corporation is 7.33 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Texas Pacific Land Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 37.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TPL from its 52-week high?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation trades at $272.18, about 49% below its 52-week high of $538.10 and at the low of $272.18 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $299.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Texas Pacific Land Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Texas Pacific Land Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $272.18, calculated fair value $299.40 (+10%), Quality Score 66/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TPL calculated?
We run Texas Pacific Land Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $299.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Texas Pacific Land Corporation currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $272.18. Our model-based fair value is $299.40, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Texas Pacific Land Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($161.20 to $457.10). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) come from?
Earnings per share at Texas Pacific Land Corporation grew +22.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +22.6 %, EBIT margin −2.3 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Texas Pacific Land Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
The market capitalisation of Texas Pacific Land Corporation is $18.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Texas Pacific Land Corporation is 19.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
Earnings per share at Texas Pacific Land Corporation are $8.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
The dividend yield of Texas Pacific Land Corporation is 0.8% (payout 26.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
The net margin of Texas Pacific Land Corporation is 60.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Texas Pacific Land Corporation is 37.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Texas Pacific Land Corporation is 46.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
The operating margin of Texas Pacific Land Corporation is 76.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
Revenue at Texas Pacific Land Corporation is growing +34.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
Earnings per share at Texas Pacific Land Corporation are growing +37.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) hold?
Texas Pacific Land Corporation holds more cash than debt, $112M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026