Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Disc Medicine Inc. stock $16.18, price $78.91, that is 79.5% below the price, quality 26 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Disc Medicine, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel treatments for patients suffering from serious hematologic diseases in the United States.
Show moreShow less
The company has assembled a portfolio of clinical and preclinical product candidates that aim to modify fundamental biological pathways associated with the formation and function of red blood cells, primarily heme biosynthesis and iron homeostasis.
Its pipeline includes bitopertin for the treatment of erythropoietic porphyrias, including erythropoietic protoporphyria, X-linked protoporphyria, and diamond-blackfan anemia; DISC-0974 for the treatment of anemia of myelofibrosis, and anemia of chronic kidney disease; and DISC-3405 for the treatment of polycythemia vera, and other hematologic disorders.
It also develops preclinical programs include DISC-0998, for the treatment of anemia associated with inflammatory diseases. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Watertown, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) currently trades at $78.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.18, 79% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $10.68 (bear) to $20.22 (bull), the price of $78.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Disc Medicine Inc. reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$212M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.6B Mid · EPS (TTM) $−6.34 · Return on equity −39.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −27.5% (5-year average) · Free cash flow −$181M · Net cash $89.3M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 10 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −79%, IRON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$10.68Fair Value $16.18Bull$20.22
Price $78.91 · Downside -79.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $21.2M and none bought.
SaleKevin BittermanDirector6× since Dec 12, 2025: 310,023 shares, avg. $86.07$26.7MOct 21, 2026
SaleJonathan Yen-Wen YuChief Operating Officer8× since Nov 11, 2025: 71,843 shares, avg. $77.79$5.6MAug 25, 2026
SaleJohn D QuiselChief Executive Officer, Director5× since Dec 11, 2025: 153,264 shares, avg. $78.49$12.0MAug 17, 2026
SaleRahul KharaChief Legal Officer6× since Jan 2, 2026: 25,353 shares, avg. $73.94$1.9MAug 6, 2026
SaleJean M. FranchiChief Financial Officer3× since Feb 17, 2026: 18,166 shares, avg. $66.33$1.2MApr 14, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleWilliam Jacob SavageChief Medical Officer4× since Dec 15, 2025: 29,458 shares, avg. $76.91$2.3MApr 13, 2026
SalePamela StephensonChief Commercial Officer5,531 shares at $62.86$347,679Feb 17, 2026
Plus 14 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (62 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The biotech's strength is its successful Phase 3 results that clear the path for NDA resubmission, while its main weakness remains zero revenue and sustained negative cash flow requiring repeated financing.
Main risk: The biggest risk is that the rare disease market and additional assets fail to generate sufficient returns to cover ongoing capital needs and dilution from equity offerings.
Disc Medicine's Phase 3 APOLLO trial delivered positive results for bitopertin in erythropoietic protoporphyria, clearing the path for an NDA resubmission by year end. The company simultaneously announced a large equity offering to finance commercialization and advance its broader hematology pipeline. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the rare disease market and additional assets generate sufficient returns to cover the ongoing capital needs and dilution?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−79.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−26.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.86× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Disc Medicine Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IRON
Frequently asked questions
Is Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.18 versus a price of $78.91, about 79% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IRON?
Our model-based fair value for Disc Medicine Inc. is $16.18 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $78.91.
What is the quality score of IRON?
Disc Medicine Inc. has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.18 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.68, optimistic scenario $20.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Disc Medicine Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.18, about 79% lower versus a price of $78.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.68, optimistic scenario $20.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Disc Medicine Inc. it is $16.18 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $78.91. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Disc Medicine Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, IRON trades above its calculated fair value: price $78.91, fair value $16.18, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IRON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($78.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.18). For Disc Medicine Inc. the two are $62.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Disc Medicine Inc. worth?
The market values Disc Medicine Inc. at about $3.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $78.91; our models calculate a fair value of $16.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IRON?
Our models span a range for Disc Medicine Inc.: cautious scenario $10.68, base $16.18, optimistic $20.22 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $78.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Disc Medicine Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −39.1%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IRON from its 52-week high?
Disc Medicine Inc. trades at $78.91, about 16% below its 52-week high of $94.11 and 42% above the low of $55.74 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Disc Medicine Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Disc Medicine Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $78.91, calculated fair value $16.18 (−79%), Quality Score 26/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IRON calculated?
We run Disc Medicine Inc. through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $16.18 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Disc Medicine Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $78.91. Our model-based fair value is $16.18, about 79% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Disc Medicine Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($10.68 to $20.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Disc Medicine Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON)?
The market capitalisation of Disc Medicine Inc. is $3.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON)?
Earnings per share at Disc Medicine Inc. are $−6.34. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Disc Medicine Inc. is −39.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Disc Medicine Inc. is −27.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) generate?
The free cash flow of Disc Medicine Inc. is −$181M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) hold?
Disc Medicine Inc. holds more cash than debt, $89.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Disc Medicine Inc. in the live analysis
One click puts Disc Medicine Inc. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 8, 2026
