J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of J & J Snack Foods Corp $73.37, price $77.93, upside -5.9%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $69.18 – $169.65 · fair‑value band $51.75 – $91.82 · the $77.93 price screens above the $73.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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J&J Snack Foods Corp. manufactures, markets, and distributes nutritional snack food and beverages to the food service and retail supermarket industries in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Food Service, Retail Supermarkets, and Frozen Beverages.
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J&J Snack Foods Corp. manufactures, markets, and distributes nutritional snack food and beverages to the food service and retail supermarket industries in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Food Service, Retail Supermarkets, and Frozen Beverages. It offers soft pretzels under the SUPERPRETZEL, SUPERPRETZEL BAVARIAN, NEW YORK PRETZEL, BAVARIAN BAKERY, FEDERAL PRETZEL, and BRAUHAUS brands, as well as under the private labels; frozen novelty under the DIPPIN'DOTS, LUIGI'S, WHOLE FRUIT, DOGSTERS, PHILLY SWIRL, ICEE, and MINUTE MAID brands; churros under the HOLA! and CALIFORNIA CHURROS brands; and handheld products under the private labels. The company also provides bakery products, such as fig and fruit bars, cookies, breads, rolls, crumbs, muffins, and donuts under the MRS. GOODCOOKIE, READI-BAKE, COUNTRY HOME, CAMDEN CREEK, MARY B'S, DADDY RAY'S and HILL & VALLEY brands, as well as under private labels; and frozen beverages under the ICEE, ARCTIC BLAST, SLUSH PUPPIE and PARROT ICE brands. In addition, it offers funnel cakes under the FUNNEL CAKE FACTORY brand, as well as various other food products; and sells machines and machine parts to other food and beverage companies. The company sells its products through a network of food brokers, independent sales distributors, and a direct sales force. It serves snack bars and food stand locations in chain, department and mass merchandising stores, malls and shopping centers, fast food and casual dining restaurants, stadiums and sports arenas, leisure and theme parks, convenience stores, movie theatres, warehouse club stores, schools, colleges and other institutions, and independent retailers. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Mount Laurel, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF) currently trades at $77.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $73.37, implying the stock looks roughly 6.2% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $67.78 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $77.93 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $25.78, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $51.75 (bear) to $91.82 (bull), the price of $77.93 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
J & J Snack Foods Corp reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +8.4%/yr. Reported net income was $65.6M in FY2025, compounding +4.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 26.2 · P/S ratio 1.08 · EPS (TTM) $2.98 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −6%, JJSF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $51.75Fair Value $73.37Bull $91.82
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs −1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.0% a year for the price and −1.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $73.37 versus a price of $77.93, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of JJSF?
Our model-based fair value for J & J Snack Foods Corp is $73.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $77.93.
What is the quality score of JJSF?
J & J Snack Foods Corp has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $73.37 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $51.75, optimistic scenario $91.82. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the J & J Snack Foods Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $73.37, about −6% upside versus a price of $77.93 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $51.75, optimistic scenario $91.82. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
J & J Snack Foods Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does J & J Snack Foods Corp pay a dividend?
J & J Snack Foods Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, J & J Snack Foods Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JJSF use?
Our models discount J & J Snack Foods Corp at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For J & J Snack Foods Corp that is +7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at J & J Snack Foods Corp grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into J & J Snack Foods Corp (+7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.40 %: that much free cash flow J & J Snack Foods Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For J & J Snack Foods Corp it is $73.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $77.93. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is J & J Snack Foods Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, JJSF trades above its calculated fair value: price $77.93, fair value $73.37, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JJSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($77.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($73.37). For J & J Snack Foods Corp the two are $4.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is J & J Snack Foods Corp worth?
The market values J & J Snack Foods Corp at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $77.93; our models calculate a fair value of $73.37 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JJSF?
Our models span a range for J & J Snack Foods Corp: cautious scenario $51.75, base $73.37, optimistic $91.82 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $77.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JJSF?
J & J Snack Foods Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $73.37 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 5.1, P/B 1.6, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
What is the PEG ratio of JJSF?
The PEG ratio of J & J Snack Foods Corp is 5.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for J & J Snack Foods Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JJSF from its 52-week high?
J & J Snack Foods Corp trades at $77.93, about 19% below its 52-week high of $96.48 and 13% above the low of $69.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $73.37 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to J & J Snack Foods Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is J & J Snack Foods Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $77.93, calculated fair value $73.37 (−6%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JJSF calculated?
We run J & J Snack Foods Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $73.37, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. J & J Snack Foods Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $77.93. Our model-based fair value is $73.37, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with J & J Snack Foods Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF) come from?
Earnings per share at J & J Snack Foods Corp grew +0.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin −5.9 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of J & J Snack Foods Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
The market capitalisation of J & J Snack Foods Corp is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of J & J Snack Foods Corp is 1.08 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
Earnings per share at J & J Snack Foods Corp are $2.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
The dividend yield of J & J Snack Foods Corp is 4.1% (payout 107%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
The net margin of J & J Snack Foods Corp is 4.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of J & J Snack Foods Corp is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of J & J Snack Foods Corp is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
The operating margin of J & J Snack Foods Corp is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
Revenue at J & J Snack Foods Corp is growing −3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF)?
Earnings per share at J & J Snack Foods Corp are growing −64.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does J & J Snack Foods Corp (JJSF) carry?
The net debt of J & J Snack Foods Corp is $57.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026