John Marshall Bancorp, Inc (JMSB) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $301M
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc
JMSB · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +8.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 16% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.84 – $28.20 · fair‑value band $14.67 – $24.45 · the $23.32 price screens above the $19.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc (JMSB) currently trades at $23.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.56, implying the stock looks roughly 16.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, John Marshall Bancorp, Inc generated revenue of $63.3M at a net margin of 35.6%. Revenue grew 16.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $39.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.67 (bear case) to $24.45 (bull case); at $23.32, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -16%, JMSB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($19.56) versus Dividend Discount ($3.87). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for John Marshall Bank that provides banking products and financial services in Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Montgomery, District of Columbia.
Full company description
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for John Marshall Bank that provides banking products and financial services in Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Montgomery, District of Columbia. The company offers checking, NOW, money market accounts, and savings accounts; certificates of deposit; and time, reciprocal IntraFi Demand, IntraFi Money Market, and IntraFi CD deposits. It also offers commercial real estate loans, residential and commercial construction and development loans, commercial and industrial loans, and residential mortgage loans; commercial term loans and lines of credit; U.S. small business administration; mortgage loan; and other loans, such as financing of equipment, receivables, contract administration expenses, and automobile financing. In addition, the company provides debit and credit cards; treasury and cash management services; business and personal insurance; and online and mobile banking with bill pay, sweep accounts, wire transfer, and check imaging and remote deposit capture services; and U.S. treasury bonds, government agency securities, and mortgage-backed securities. It serves small to medium-sized businesses, their owners and employees, professional corporations, non-profits, and individuals. The company was formerly known as John Marshall Bank and changed its name to John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. in March 2017. John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
John Marshall Bancorp, Inc reported revenue of $115M in FY2025 versus $75.8M in FY2021, a compound +11.0%/yr. Reported net income was $21.2M in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
JMSB screens 16% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB) Beats Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- John Marshall Bancorp raises dividend by 11.1% to $0.10
- John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. Announces Initiation of Coverage by Investment Banking Firm
- John Marshall Bank Hires Matthew Witt as VP, Commercial Lender to Grow and Support Alexandria Market
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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