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JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd $13.95, price $20.60, upside -32.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US

JP JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd

JPSTF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $13.95 · Overvalued (−32.3%)
!Quality 54/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +8.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 28.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!6.2% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Moderate moat 58/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 24 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$20.82 $5.66 Fair Value $13.95 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $5.66 – $20.82 · fair‑value band $10.46 – $17.44 · the $20.60 price screens above the $13.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

JAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd. provides financial products and services in Japan and internationally. The company offers regular, fixed, and wealth building saving accounts, remittance and payment pension account. It also provides loans and lending comprising mortgage, account overdraft, and savings-secured automatic loans.

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JAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd. provides financial products and services in Japan and internationally. The company offers regular, fixed, and wealth building saving accounts, remittance and payment pension account. It also provides loans and lending comprising mortgage, account overdraft, and savings-secured automatic loans. In addition, it offers asset management and defined contribution pension plans, including investment trusts, variable annuities, and government bonds. Further, it provides stores and ATM services. The company was formerly known as Yucho Co, Ltd. and changed its name to JAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd. in October 2007. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. JAPAN POST BANK Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.

Stock analysis

JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF) currently trades at $20.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.95, implying the stock looks roughly 47.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 15 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Scenario range: $10.46 (bear) to $17.44 (bull), the price of $20.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd reported revenue of ¥2.8T in FY2026 versus ¥1.9T in FY2022, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥529B in FY2026, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $67.7B · P/E ratio 22.4 · P/S ratio 4.21 · EPS (TTM) $0.9200 · Dividend yield 6.2% · Net margin 18.8% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 111% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −32%, JPSTF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $10.46 Fair Value $13.95 Bull $17.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $2,035 $2,087 $2,081 71
P/E Multiple $1,448 $1,930 $2,413 63
P/B Multiple $1,893 $2,524 $3,155 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $1,448 $1,930 $2,413 63
P/B Multiple $1,893 $2,524 $3,155 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1,301 $1,744 $2,603 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2,035 $2,087 $2,081 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 89
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.5% (2021) → 27.1% (2026)

JPSTF screens 48% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1051 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −32.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5.9% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 28.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 43.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 56.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.27× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.15× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 5.71× · Priciest 25%
PEG 2.70× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)24 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.48 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.20 HK$62.32 +22%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.18 €77.62 −6%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.72 €4.04 −40%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.56 $6.79 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €98.43 €105.99 +8%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹728.90 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €13.23 €8.46 −36%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,327 ₹615.71 −54%

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JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd · Fair Value
$13.95 −48%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JPSTF

Frequently asked questions

Is JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.95 versus a price of $20.60, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JPSTF?
Our model-based fair value for JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is $13.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.60.
What is the quality score of JPSTF?
JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.46, optimistic scenario $17.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.95, about −32% upside versus a price of $20.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.46, optimistic scenario $17.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.9T (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd pay a dividend?
JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd it is $13.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $20.60. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, JPSTF trades above its calculated fair value: price $20.60, fair value $13.95, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JPSTF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.95). For JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd the two are $6.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd worth?
The market values JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd at about $67.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $20.60; our models calculate a fair value of $13.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JPSTF?
Our models span a range for JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd: cautious scenario $10.46, base $13.95, optimistic $17.44 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $20.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JPSTF?
JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.7, P/B 1.2, P/S 5.7.
What is the PEG ratio of JPSTF?
The PEG ratio of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is 2.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
Balance-sheet figures for JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.9%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JPSTF from its 52-week high?
JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd trades at $20.60, about 1% below its 52-week high of $20.82 and 111% above the low of $9.77 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $20.60, calculated fair value $13.95 (−32%), Quality Score 54/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JPSTF calculated?
We run JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $20.60. Our model-based fair value is $13.95, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
The market capitalisation of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is $67.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is 4.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
Earnings per share at JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd are $0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
The dividend yield of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is 6.2% (payout 139%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
The net margin of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is 18.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
The operating margin of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is 43.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
Revenue at JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is growing +56.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF)?
Earnings per share at JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd are growing +41.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF) generate?
The free cash flow of JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd is −¥705B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd (JPSTF) hold?
JAPAN POST BANK Co.Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥33.0T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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