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Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk stock IDR 280, price IDR 350, that is 20.0% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Healthcare ID · ISIN ID1000070303

KF Kimia Farma Persero Tbk logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Kimia Farma Persero Tbk

KAEF · JK
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 20% below what the stock costs today.

Generates free cash flow
Revenue last quarter +21% vs. a year ago.
Quality 43/100
Moderate debt
Fair value 279.91 IDR · Overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.6 %/yr in IDR)
Loss-making · -2.4% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 18/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

3,501 IDR 338.00 IDR Fair Value 279.91 IDR Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 338.00 IDR – 3,501 IDR · fair‑value band 68.88 IDR – 526.64 IDR · the 350.00 IDR price screens above the 279.91 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

PT Kimia Farma Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of medicines in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Manufacture, Distribution, Retail, and Others segments.

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The company offers drugs in the form of tablets, effervescent tablets, hard and soft capsules, liquids, syrups, oral powders, non-beta-lactam external liquids, beta-lactam tablets and dry syrups, injections, ointments, creams, suppositories, semisolid dosage forms, and health supplements; traditional medicines; generic drugs, such as paracetamol, amoxicillin, and omeprazole; ethical products; over-the-counter products and herbs; and narcotic drugs and psychotropics.

It also provides health food; cosmetics; edible, castor, and essential oils; active pharmaceutical ingredients and high-function chemicals; quinine salt and its derivatives; antiseptic solutions; stem cells; and medical devices.

In addition, the company engages in the provision of integrated health services, including pharmacies, health and beauty clinics, clinical and diagnostic laboratories, and optics; pharmacy retail management; and distribution of medicines to pharmacies, hospital pharmacies, medical centers, and drug stores, as well as cosmetics and medical devices.

It exports its products to Asia, Europe, Australia, Africa, and America. The company was founded in 1817 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Kimia Farma Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT. Bio Farma.

Stock analysis

Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) currently trades at 350.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 279.91 IDR, 20% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 307.81 IDR per share, and 2 of the 8 models we run sit above the 350.00 IDR price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 244.43 IDR, and 6 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 68.88 IDR (bear) to 526.64 IDR (bull), the price of 350.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Kimia Farma Persero Tbk reported revenue of 9.2T IDR in FY2025 versus 12.9T IDR in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was −335B IDR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 1.9T IDR (≈ $108M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.21 · EPS (TTM) −41.25 IDR · Net margin −2.4% · Return on equity −8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.2% · Revenue (TTM) 9.6T IDR.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 18 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at −20%, KAEF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 68.88 IDR Fair Value 279.91 IDR Bull 526.64 IDR
Price 350.00 IDR · Downside -20.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF 219.49 IDR 459.60 IDR 741.56 IDR 78
Growth DCF 215.55 IDR 420.23 IDR 645.77 IDR 77
5Y Revenue Exit n/a 53.26 IDR 181.85 IDR 69
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 219.49 IDR 459.60 IDR 741.56 IDR 78
5Y Revenue Exit n/a 53.26 IDR 181.85 IDR 69
5Y EBITDA Exit 59.76 IDR 279.91 IDR 526.64 IDR 69
10Y Revenue Exit 68.88 IDR 193.60 IDR 338.72 IDR 63
10Y EBITDA Exit 130.66 IDR 313.88 IDR 540.25 IDR 65
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 229.71 IDR 307.81 IDR 459.41 IDR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 215.55 IDR 420.23 IDR 645.77 IDR 77
Rev-Margin DCF n/a 68.62 IDR 224.91 IDR 69

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 18
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 19
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 8
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 36
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 10
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 19/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.5% (2020) → −2.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+51.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +47.6% a year for the price.

KAEF screens overvalued: fair value 20% below the price. Compare with McKesson Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 77 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −20.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −2.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −2.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 3.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 21.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.27× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.73× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.20× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 18.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 14.3× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)7 · sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 24
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)36 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 54

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Sinopharm Group 1099 HK$17.16 HK$51.48 +200% vs KAEF
Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 ¥5.24 ¥11.56 +121% vs KAEF
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 ¥16.76 ¥35.78 +113% vs KAEF
China National Medicines Corporation 600511 ¥29.29 ¥58.47 +100% vs KAEF
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 ¥20.09 ¥26.64 +33% vs KAEF
Cencora, Inc COR $333.56 $341.58 +2% vs KAEF
Henry Schein, Inc HSIC $86.05 $78.69 −9% vs KAEF
McKesson Corporation MCK $1,061 $822.74 −22% vs KAEF
Galenica AG GALE CHF 89.45 CHF 61.79 −31% vs KAEF
Cardinal Health, Inc CAH $271.72 $163.14 −40% vs KAEF

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kimia Farma Persero Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KAEF

Frequently asked questions

Is Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 279.91 IDR versus a price of 350.00 IDR, about 20% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KAEF?
Our model-based fair value for Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is 279.91 IDR (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 350.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of KAEF?
Kimia Farma Persero Tbk has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 279.91 IDR (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario 68.88 IDR, optimistic scenario 526.64 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kimia Farma Persero Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 279.91 IDR, about 20% lower versus a price of 350.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 68.88 IDR, optimistic scenario 526.64 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Kimia Farma Persero Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.6T IDR (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kimia Farma Persero Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +51.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.6 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KAEF use?
Our models discount Kimia Farma Persero Tbk at 15.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kimia Farma Persero Tbk that is +51.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (15.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk grew -1.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +51.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (+51.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.36 %: that much free cash flow Kimia Farma Persero Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kimia Farma Persero Tbk it is 279.91 IDR per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 350.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Kimia Farma Persero Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, KAEF trades above its calculated fair value: price 350.00 IDR, fair value 279.91 IDR, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KAEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (350.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (279.91 IDR). For Kimia Farma Persero Tbk the two are 70.09 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kimia Farma Persero Tbk worth?
The market values Kimia Farma Persero Tbk at about 1.9T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 350.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 279.91 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KAEF?
Our models span a range for Kimia Farma Persero Tbk: cautious scenario 68.88 IDR, base 279.91 IDR, optimistic 526.64 IDR per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 350.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −8.3%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KAEF from its 52-week high?
Kimia Farma Persero Tbk trades at 350.00 IDR, about 51% below its 52-week high of 715.00 IDR and 4% above the low of 338.00 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 279.91 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kimia Farma Persero Tbk?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kimia Farma Persero Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 350.00 IDR, calculated fair value 279.91 IDR (−20%), Quality Score 43/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KAEF calculated?
We run Kimia Farma Persero Tbk through 8 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 279.91 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Kimia Farma Persero Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 350.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 279.91 IDR, about 20% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kimia Farma Persero Tbk right now?
Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (68.88 IDR to 526.64 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk

How large is the market capitalisation of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The market capitalisation of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is 1.9T IDR (≈ $108M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is 0.21 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Earnings per share at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk are −41.25 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The net margin of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is −2.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is −8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is −1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The operating margin of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Revenue at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is growing +21.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg 0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Earnings per share at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk are growing −93.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) carry?
The net debt of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is 6.6T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 62.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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