PT Kimia Farma Tbk, (KAEF) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · ID · Market cap 2.5T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from 103.56 IDR to 102.46 IDR (−1.1%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +0.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (300.66 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide (20.49 IDR to 300.66 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 346.00 IDR – 3,569 IDR · fair‑value band 20.49 IDR – 300.66 IDR · the 458.00 IDR price screens above the 102.46 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
PT Kimia Farma Tbk, (KAEF) currently trades at 458.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 102.46 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 77.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Kimia Farma Tbk, generated revenue of 9.1T IDR at a net margin of -1.7%. Revenue declined 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.2%. Net debt stands at 6.6T IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 20.49 IDR (bear case) to 300.66 IDR (bull case); at 458.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -78%, KAEF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (320.14 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (0.2300 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Kimia Farma Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of medicines in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Manufacture, Distribution, Retail, and Others segments.
Full company description
PT Kimia Farma Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of medicines in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Manufacture, Distribution, Retail, and Others segments. The company offers drugs in the form of tablets, effervescent tablets, hard and soft capsules, liquids, syrups, oral powders, non-beta-lactam external liquids, beta-lactam tablets and dry syrups, injections, ointments, creams, suppositories, semisolid dosage forms, and health supplements; traditional medicines; generic drugs, such as paracetamol, amoxicillin, and omeprazole; ethical products; over-the-counter products and herbs; and narcotic drugs and psychotropics. It also provides health food; cosmetics; edible, castor, and essential oils; active pharmaceutical ingredients and high-function chemicals; quinine salt and its derivatives; antiseptic solutions; stem cells; and medical devices. In addition, the company engages in the provision of integrated health services, including pharmacies, health and beauty clinics, clinical and diagnostic laboratories, and optics; pharmacy retail management; and distribution of medicines to pharmacies, hospital pharmacies, medical centers, and drug stores, as well as cosmetics and medical devices. It exports its products to Asia, Europe, Australia, Africa, and America. The company was founded in 1817 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Kimia Farma Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT. Bio Farma.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Kimia Farma Tbk, reported revenue of 9.2T IDR in FY2025 versus 12.9T IDR in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was −335B IDR in FY2025.
KAEF screens 78% overvalued. Compare with McKesson Corporation →
Peer Group
Medical Distribution · 81 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McKesson Corporation MCK | $805.96 | $819.31 | +2% |
| Cencora, Inc COR | $303.44 | $175.74 | -42% |
| Cardinal Health, Inc CAH | $224.94 | $141.77 | -37% |
| Henry Schein, Inc HSIC | $87.82 | $74.67 | -15% |
| Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 | ¥16.70 | ¥33.96 | +103% |
| Sinopharm Group 1099 | HK$16.74 | HK$61.33 | +266% |
| Galenica AG GALE | CHF 87.05 | CHF 61.79 | -29% |
| Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 | ¥21.50 | ¥28.65 | +33% |
| Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 | ¥4.99 | ¥9.84 | +97% |
| Asker Healthcare Group ASKER | kr 79.45 | kr 25.69 | -68% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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