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Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk IDR 277, price IDR 428, upside -35.3%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · ID · ISIN ID1000070303

KF Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Kimia Farma Persero Tbk

KAEF · JK

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 276.80 IDR · Strongly overvalued (−35%)
!Quality 45/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/10)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range 66.15 IDR to 522.27 IDR
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

3,501 IDR 346.00 IDR Fair Value 276.80 IDR Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 346.00 IDR – 3,501 IDR · fair‑value band 66.15 IDR – 522.27 IDR · the 428.00 IDR price screens above the 276.80 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

PT Kimia Farma Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of medicines in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Manufacture, Distribution, Retail, and Others segments.

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PT Kimia Farma Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells a range of medicines in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Manufacture, Distribution, Retail, and Others segments. The company offers drugs in the form of tablets, effervescent tablets, hard and soft capsules, liquids, syrups, oral powders, non-beta-lactam external liquids, beta-lactam tablets and dry syrups, injections, ointments, creams, suppositories, semisolid dosage forms, and health supplements; traditional medicines; generic drugs, such as paracetamol, amoxicillin, and omeprazole; ethical products; over-the-counter products and herbs; and narcotic drugs and psychotropics. It also provides health food; cosmetics; edible, castor, and essential oils; active pharmaceutical ingredients and high-function chemicals; quinine salt and its derivatives; antiseptic solutions; stem cells; and medical devices. In addition, the company engages in the provision of integrated health services, including pharmacies, health and beauty clinics, clinical and diagnostic laboratories, and optics; pharmacy retail management; and distribution of medicines to pharmacies, hospital pharmacies, medical centers, and drug stores, as well as cosmetics and medical devices. It exports its products to Asia, Europe, Australia, Africa, and America. The company was founded in 1817 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia. PT Kimia Farma Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT. Bio Farma.

Stock analysis

Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) currently trades at 428.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 276.80 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 54.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 353.77 IDR per share, and 4 of the 12 models we run sit above the 428.00 IDR price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 112.92 IDR, and 8 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 66.15 IDR (bear) to 522.27 IDR (bull), the price of 428.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Kimia Farma Persero Tbk reported revenue of 9.2T IDR in FY2025 versus 12.9T IDR in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was −335B IDR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 2.4T IDR (≈ $133M) · P/S ratio 0.28 · EPS (TTM) −28.45 IDR · Net margin −3.6% · Return on equity −6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.6% · Operating margin 3.4% · Revenue (TTM) 9.1T IDR.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −35%, KAEF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 66.15 IDR Fair Value 276.80 IDR Bull 522.27 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 367.02 IDR 718.91 IDR 1,165 IDR 78
Growth DCF 366.36 IDR 667.06 IDR 1,024 IDR 77
Owner Earnings 240.71 IDR 540.77 IDR 921.46 IDR 73
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 367.02 IDR 718.91 IDR 1,165 IDR 78
Owner Earnings 240.71 IDR 540.77 IDR 921.46 IDR 73
5Y Revenue Exit n/a 99.04 IDR 242.89 IDR 69
5Y EBITDA Exit 107.29 IDR 353.77 IDR 630.79 IDR 70
10Y Revenue Exit 135.31 IDR 285.03 IDR 460.89 IDR 64
10Y EBITDA Exit 213.10 IDR 436.95 IDR 715.96 IDR 66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 0.1000 IDR 0.1600 IDR 0.2100 IDR 68
DDM Multi-Stage 0.1000 IDR 0.1500 IDR 0.1800 IDR 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA n/a 112.92 IDR 263.77 IDR 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 238.91 IDR 320.14 IDR 477.82 IDR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 366.36 IDR 667.06 IDR 1,024 IDR 77
Rev-Margin DCF n/a 115.63 IDR 289.09 IDR 69

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 19
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 14
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 19/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.5% (2020) → −2.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+53.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +49.1% a year for the price.

KAEF screens 55% overvalued. Compare with McKesson Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 83 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −35% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.27× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.9× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)36 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 59

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McKesson Corporation MCK $880.50 $819.31 −7%
Cencora, Inc COR $312.28 $211.07 −32%
Cardinal Health, Inc CAH $221.27 $141.77 −36%
Henry Schein, Inc HSIC $87.43 $76.86 −12%
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding 601607 ¥16.06 ¥42.67 +166%
Sinopharm Group 1099 HK$15.06 HK$58.89 +291%
Galenica AG GALE CHF 83.45 CHF 61.79 −26%
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings 600332 ¥19.67 ¥26.64 +35%
Jointown Pharmaceutical Group 600998 ¥4.89 ¥9.84 +101%
China National Medicines Corporation 600511 ¥26.11 ¥58.47 +124%

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Kimia Farma Persero Tbk · Fair Value
276.80 IDR −55%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kimia Farma Persero Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KAEF

Frequently asked questions

Is Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 276.80 IDR versus a price of 428.00 IDR, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KAEF?
Our model-based fair value for Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is 276.80 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 428.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of KAEF?
Kimia Farma Persero Tbk has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 276.80 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 66.15 IDR, optimistic scenario 522.27 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kimia Farma Persero Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 276.80 IDR, about −35% upside versus a price of 428.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 66.15 IDR, optimistic scenario 522.27 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Kimia Farma Persero Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.1T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kimia Farma Persero Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +53.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KAEF use?
Our models discount Kimia Farma Persero Tbk at 15.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.09, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kimia Farma Persero Tbk that is +53.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk grew -1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +53.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (+53.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.38 %: that much free cash flow Kimia Farma Persero Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kimia Farma Persero Tbk it is 276.80 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 428.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kimia Farma Persero Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KAEF trades above its calculated fair value: price 428.00 IDR, fair value 276.80 IDR, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KAEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (428.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (276.80 IDR). For Kimia Farma Persero Tbk the two are 151.20 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kimia Farma Persero Tbk worth?
The market values Kimia Farma Persero Tbk at about 2.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 428.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 276.80 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KAEF?
Our models span a range for Kimia Farma Persero Tbk: cautious scenario 66.15 IDR, base 276.80 IDR, optimistic 522.27 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 428.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.2%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KAEF from its 52-week high?
Kimia Farma Persero Tbk trades at 428.00 IDR, about 40% below its 52-week high of 715.00 IDR and 10% above the low of 390.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 276.80 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kimia Farma Persero Tbk?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kimia Farma Persero Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 428.00 IDR, calculated fair value 276.80 IDR (−35%), Quality Score 45/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KAEF calculated?
We run Kimia Farma Persero Tbk through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 276.80 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Kimia Farma Persero Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 428.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 276.80 IDR, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kimia Farma Persero Tbk right now?
The model range is unusually wide (66.15 IDR to 522.27 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk

How large is the market capitalisation of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The market capitalisation of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is 2.4T IDR (≈ $133M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is 0.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Earnings per share at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk are −28.45 IDR. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The net margin of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is −3.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is −6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is −1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
The operating margin of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Revenue at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is growing −6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg 0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF)?
Earnings per share at Kimia Farma Persero Tbk are growing −93.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kimia Farma Persero Tbk (KAEF) carry?
The net debt of Kimia Farma Persero Tbk is 6.6T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 62.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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