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Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding TRY 1.35, price TRY 7.87, upside -82.9%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding
KERVN · ISWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value 1.35 TRY · Strongly overvalued (−82.9%)
!Quality 41/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −84.8 %/yr)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/6)
✓Wide moat 80/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.4100 TRY – 11.10 TRY · fair‑value band 1.11 TRY – 1.72 TRY · the 7.87 TRY price screens above the 1.35 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Company profile
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding A.S. is a holding company, engages in providing consultancy in investment, financing, marketing, organization, and management. It also involves in renting out hotels in Turkey. Kervansaray Yatirim Holding A.S. was formerly known as Ceylan Yatirim Holding AS and changed its name to Kervansaray Yatirim Holding A.S. in 2013.
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Kervansaray Yatirim Holding A.S. is a holding company, engages in providing consultancy in investment, financing, marketing, organization, and management. It also involves in renting out hotels in Turkey. Kervansaray Yatirim Holding A.S. was formerly known as Ceylan Yatirim Holding AS and changed its name to Kervansaray Yatirim Holding A.S. in 2013. The company was incorporated in 1976 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) currently trades at 7.87 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.35 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 483.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 1.11 TRY (bear) to 1.72 TRY (bull), the price of 7.87 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding reported revenue of −68.5M TRY in FY2023 versus 129M TRY in FY2019. Reported net income was −264M TRY in FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap 6.3B TRY (≈ $129M) · P/E ratio 1.5 · EPS (TTM) 5.30 TRY · Return on equity 59.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% · Operating margin −552,390% · Revenue (TTM) −172K TRY · Revenue growth (YoY) −66.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 288% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −83%, KERVN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.11 TRY
Fair Value 1.35 TRY
Bull 1.72 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
1.39 TRY
1.77 TRY
2.39 TRY
79
Growth DCF
1.43 TRY
1.78 TRY
2.32 TRY
78
All 2 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
1.39 TRY
1.77 TRY
2.39 TRY
79
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
1.43 TRY
1.78 TRY
2.32 TRY
78
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
41/100
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Profitability
25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
19
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
0
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
50
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
89
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
22/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−100.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−96.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−84.8%
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−39.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.9% (2017) → −3,087,540.8% (2022)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
KERVN screens 483% overvalued. Compare with Tongkun Group →
Compare Kervansaray Yatirim Holding with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 343 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Textile Manufacturing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tongkun Group 601233 | ¥23.26 | ¥14.53 | −38% |
| Shenzhou International Group 2313 | HK$34.08 | HK$71.99 | +111% |
| Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co 600295 | ¥12.80 | ¥14.35 | +12% |
| K.P.R. Mill Limited KPRMILL | ₹1,137 | ₹901.34 | −21% |
| Zhejiang Orient Holdings 600120 | ¥4.70 | ¥2.40 | −49% |
| Albany International Corp AIN | $60.98 | $24.73 | −59% |
| Vardhman Textiles Limited VTL | ₹561.45 | ₹267.33 | −52% |
| Bros Eastern.,Ltd 601339 | ¥7.20 | ¥7.87 | +9% |
| Ruentex Industries Ltd 2915 | 60.00 TWD | 106.63 TWD | +78% |
| Xinxiang Chemical Fiber Co 000949 | ¥6.93 | ¥2.00 | −71% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.35 TRY versus a price of 7.87 TRY, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KERVN?
Our model-based fair value for Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is 1.35 TRY (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 7.87 TRY.
What is the quality score of KERVN?
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.35 TRY (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.11 TRY, optimistic scenario 1.72 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kervansaray Yatirim Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.35 TRY, about −83% upside versus a price of 7.87 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.11 TRY, optimistic scenario 1.72 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kervansaray Yatirim Holding would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -84.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KERVN use?
Our models discount Kervansaray Yatirim Holding at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kervansaray Yatirim Holding that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding grew -84.8 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.30 %: that much free cash flow Kervansaray Yatirim Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kervansaray Yatirim Holding it is 1.35 TRY per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 7.87 TRY. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kervansaray Yatirim Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, KERVN trades above its calculated fair value: price 7.87 TRY, fair value 1.35 TRY, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KERVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (7.87 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.35 TRY). For Kervansaray Yatirim Holding the two are 6.52 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kervansaray Yatirim Holding worth?
The market values Kervansaray Yatirim Holding at about 6.3B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 7.87 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 1.35 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KERVN?
Our models span a range for Kervansaray Yatirim Holding: cautious scenario 1.11 TRY, base 1.35 TRY, optimistic 1.72 TRY per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 7.87 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KERVN?
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 1.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.35 TRY is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KERVN from its 52-week high?
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding trades at 7.87 TRY, about 29% below its 52-week high of 11.10 TRY and 288% above the low of 2.03 TRY (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.35 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kervansaray Yatirim Holding?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tongkun Group, Shenzhou International Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, K.P.R. Mill Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kervansaray Yatirim Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 7.87 TRY, calculated fair value 1.35 TRY (−83%), Quality Score 41/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KERVN calculated?
We run Kervansaray Yatirim Holding through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.35 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Kervansaray Yatirim Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 7.87 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 1.35 TRY, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kervansaray Yatirim Holding right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.72 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
The market capitalisation of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is 6.3B TRY (≈ $129M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Earnings per share at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding are 5.30 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 1.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is 59.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is −0.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
The operating margin of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is −552,390% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) generate?
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding generates revenue of −172K TRY (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Revenue at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is growing −66.4% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Earnings per share at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding are growing +195% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) carry?
The net debt of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is 2.4B TRY (fiscal year 2022). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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