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Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding stock TRY 1.35, price TRY 6.41, that is 78.9% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Thin data
Nov 9, 2026
Thin data
Nov 9, 2026
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding
KERVN · ISVery expensive, weak quality
Our calculation puts a fair price 79% below what the stock costs today.
Generates free cash flow
Costs just 2.1 times its yearly profit.
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Moderate moat 47/100 · thin data
Fair value 1.35 TRY · Strongly overvalued
Quality 32/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −84.8 %/yr in TRY)
Trails peers (2/6)
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.4100 TRY – 11.10 TRY · fair‑value band 1.11 TRY – 1.72 TRY · the 6.41 TRY price screens above the 1.35 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Company profile
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding A.S. is a holding company, engages in providing consultancy in investment, financing, marketing, organization, and management. It also involves in renting out hotels in Turkey.
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Kervansaray Yatirim Holding A.S. was formerly known as Ceylan Yatirim Holding AS and changed its name to Kervansaray Yatirim Holding A.S. in 2013. The company was incorporated in 1976 and is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) currently trades at 6.41 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.35 TRY, 79% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 79/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: 1.11 TRY (bear) to 1.72 TRY (bull), the price of 6.41 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding reported revenue of −68.5M TRY in FY2023 versus 129M TRY in FY2019. Reported net income was −264M TRY in FY2023.
Key figures
Market cap 3.8B TRY (≈ $75.1M) Micro · P/E ratio 2.1 · EPS (TTM) 3.05 TRY · Return on equity 117% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% (4-year average) · Operating margin −676,677% · Revenue (TTM) −222K TRY · Revenue growth (YoY) −66.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 216% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −79%, KERVN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.11 TRY
Fair Value 1.35 TRY
Bull 1.72 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF
1.11 TRY
1.35 TRY
1.72 TRY
80
Growth DCF
1.13 TRY
1.35 TRY
1.67 TRY
78
All 2 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
1.11 TRY
1.35 TRY
1.72 TRY
80
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
1.13 TRY
1.35 TRY
1.67 TRY
78
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
32/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability
25
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow
19
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength
0
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment
50
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility
50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum
56
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high
74
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares
82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
22/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−100.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−96.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−84.8%
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−39.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2.9% (2017) → −3,087,540.8% (2022)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2023 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
KERVN screens overvalued: fair value 79% below the price. Compare with Tongkun Group →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Textile Manufacturing · 348 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Textile Manufacturing median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Net margin by industry
- P/B ratio by industry
- PEG screener for stocks with fair value
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Textile Manufacturing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shenzhou International Group 2313 | HK$42.48 | HK$72.40 | +70% | vs KERVN |
| K.P.R. Mill Limited KPRMILL | ₹1,155 | ₹1,604 | +39% | vs KERVN |
| Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co 600295 | ¥14.95 | ¥16.12 | +8% | vs KERVN |
| Far Eastern New Century Corporation 1402 | 27.15 TWD | 27.89 TWD | +3% | vs KERVN |
| Ruentex Industries Ltd 2915 | 53.20 TWD | 48.61 TWD | −9% | vs KERVN |
| Tongkun Group 601233 | ¥22.89 | ¥14.51 | −37% | vs KERVN |
| Zhejiang Orient Holdings 600120 | ¥4.37 | ¥2.40 | −45% | vs KERVN |
| Albany International Corp AIN | $68.92 | $24.93 | −64% | vs KERVN |
| HMT (Xiamen) New Technical Materials Co 603306 | ¥46.19 | ¥14.96 | −68% | vs KERVN |
| Welspun Living Limited WELSPUNLIV | ₹252.21 | ₹47.77 | −81% | vs KERVN |
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kervansaray Yatirim Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KERVN
Frequently asked questions
Is Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.35 TRY versus a price of 6.41 TRY, about 79% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KERVN?
Our model-based fair value for Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is 1.35 TRY (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6.41 TRY.
What is the quality score of KERVN?
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.35 TRY (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.11 TRY, optimistic scenario 1.72 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kervansaray Yatirim Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.35 TRY, about 79% lower versus a price of 6.41 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.11 TRY, optimistic scenario 1.72 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kervansaray Yatirim Holding would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -84.8 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KERVN use?
Our models discount Kervansaray Yatirim Holding at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kervansaray Yatirim Holding that is more than 80 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding grew -84.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of more than 80 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (more than 80 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.37 %: that much free cash flow Kervansaray Yatirim Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kervansaray Yatirim Holding it is 1.35 TRY per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of 6.41 TRY. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (DCF Models, Growth DCF).
Is Kervansaray Yatirim Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, KERVN trades above its calculated fair value: price 6.41 TRY, fair value 1.35 TRY, a gap of about −79% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KERVN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6.41 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.35 TRY). For Kervansaray Yatirim Holding the two are 5.06 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kervansaray Yatirim Holding worth?
The market values Kervansaray Yatirim Holding at about 3.8B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is 6.41 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 1.35 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KERVN?
Our models span a range for Kervansaray Yatirim Holding: cautious scenario 1.11 TRY, base 1.35 TRY, optimistic 1.72 TRY per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price 6.41 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KERVN?
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.1 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1.35 TRY is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (as of Nov 9, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KERVN from its 52-week high?
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding trades at 6.41 TRY, about 42% below its 52-week high of 11.10 TRY and 216% above the low of 2.03 TRY (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.35 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kervansaray Yatirim Holding?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tongkun Group, Shenzhou International Group, Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources Co, Far Eastern New Century Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kervansaray Yatirim Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price 6.41 TRY, calculated fair value 1.35 TRY (−79%), Quality Score 32/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KERVN calculated?
We run Kervansaray Yatirim Holding through 2 models from 2 families: DCF Models, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 1.35 TRY builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Kervansaray Yatirim Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was 6.41 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 1.35 TRY, about 79% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kervansaray Yatirim Holding right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.72 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
The market capitalisation of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is 3.8B TRY (≈ $75.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Earnings per share at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding are 3.05 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is 117% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is −0.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
The operating margin of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is −676,677% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) generate?
Kervansaray Yatirim Holding generates revenue of −222K TRY (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Revenue at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is growing −66.4% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN)?
Earnings per share at Kervansaray Yatirim Holding are growing +195% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kervansaray Yatirim Holding (KERVN) carry?
The net debt of Kervansaray Yatirim Holding is 2.4B TRY (fiscal year 2022). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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