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Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd $7.90, price $26.00, upside -69.6%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US

KP Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd

KKPCF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $7.90 · Strongly overvalued (−70%)
!Quality 43/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 2.8% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
·4.57% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/12)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 6 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$31.99 $19.58 Fair Value $7.90 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.58 – $31.99 · fair‑value band $5.92 – $9.87 · the $26.00 price screens above the $7.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Kaken Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. produces, markets, and sells medical products, medical devices, and agrochemicals in Japan and internationally.

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Kaken Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. produces, markets, and sells medical products, medical devices, and agrochemicals in Japan and internationally. The company offers pharmaceutical products and medical devices, such as Clenafin, a topical treatment for onychomycosis; Artz, an anti-osteoarthritis agent; Fiblast, a wound-healing agent; Ecclock for the treatment of primary axillary hyperhidrosis; Regroth, a periodontal regenerative agent; Hernicore for the treatment of lumbar disc herniation; and Seprafilm, an adhesion barrier used primarily in surgery and gynecology to reduce complications from post-operative adhesions. It also provides agrochemicals and animal health products, including Polyoxins, that are used as fungicides; Pentoxazone and Metamifop rice herbicides; Salinomycin, an anti-coccidial feed additive for chickens; and Uroston, a urinary stone dissolution and elimination acceleration agent for cattle. In addition, the company is developing KMW-1 for the removal of eschar; KAR, which is in phase III clinical trial for the treatment of head lice; KP-001, which is in phase III clinical trial for the treatment of refractory vascular malformations; Seladelpar that is in phase III clinical trial for primary biliary cholangitis; KP-483, which is in phase I clinical trial for the treatment of solid tumors; NM26-2198 that is in phase I clinical trial for the treatment of atopic dermatitis; KP-910, which is in phase I clinical trial for peripheral neuropathic pain; and Tildacerfont, which is in phase I clinical trial for congenital adrenal hyperplasia. Further, it is involved in the rental of Bunkyo Green Court. The company has a collaboration and licensing agreement with Alumis Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize ESK-001, a selective oral tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for dermatology indications in Japan. Kaken Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF) currently trades at $26.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.90, implying the stock looks roughly 229.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $10.97 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the $26.00 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.98, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $5.92 (bear) to $9.87 (bull), the price of $26.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥77.4B in FY2026 versus ¥76.0B in FY2022, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.2B in FY2026, compounding −31.1%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $986M · P/E ratio 288.9 · P/S ratio 8.06 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 1.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −70%, KKPCF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.92 Fair Value $7.90 Bull $9.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $7.21 $7.90 $9.05 75
Residual Income $10.64 $9.73 $6.74 71
Graham-Dodd $1.62 $1.98 $2.22 67
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $7.21 $7.90 $9.05 75
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.62 $1.98 $2.22 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $3.92 $5.23 $6.54 63
P/S Multiple $3.03 $4.04 $5.05 58
P/B Multiple $3.03 $4.04 $5.05 55
EV/EBITDA $7.78 $8.72 $9.66 64
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.18 $10.97 $16.37 51
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.64 $9.73 $6.74 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $2.76 $3.95 $5.13 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 4
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 81
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 49
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 20/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−25.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30% vs −20%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → −1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)

KKPCF screens 229% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside −70% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) −8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 288.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.05× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.04× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 46.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)34 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)6 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)91 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €133.15 €108.70 −18%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $18.95 $11.29 −40%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥45.58 ¥50.14 +10%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,865 ₹1,979 +6%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 163.80 CHF 109.88 −33%
Haleon plc HLN $9.25 $8.50 −8%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $39.52 $20.75 −47%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 70.76 CHF 40.16 −43%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $72.86 $108.48 +49%
Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 HK$35.34 HK$38.87 +10%

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Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd · Fair Value
$7.90 −229%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KKPCF

Frequently asked questions

Is Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.90 versus a price of $26.00, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KKPCF?
Our model-based fair value for Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd is $7.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $26.00.
What is the quality score of KKPCF?
Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.92, optimistic scenario $9.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.90, about −70% upside versus a price of $26.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.92, optimistic scenario $9.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥76.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd it is $7.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $26.00. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, KKPCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $26.00, fair value $7.90, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KKPCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($26.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.90). For Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd the two are $18.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd at about $986M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $26.00; our models calculate a fair value of $7.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KKPCF?
Our models span a range for Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $5.92, base $7.90, optimistic $9.87 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $26.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KKPCF?
Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 288.9 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 46.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 1.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KKPCF from its 52-week high?
Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd trades at $26.00, about 5% below its 52-week high of $27.47 and 13% above the low of $23.10 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $26.00, calculated fair value $7.90 (−70%), Quality Score 43/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KKPCF calculated?
We run Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $26.00. Our model-based fair value is $7.90, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF) come from?
Earnings per share at Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd grew −4.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.4 %, EBIT margin −5.0 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
The market capitalisation of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd is $986M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd is 8.06 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
Earnings per share at Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 288.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
The dividend yield of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd is 4.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
The net margin of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd is 2.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd is 1.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
The operating margin of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd is −7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
Revenue at Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF)?
Earnings per share at Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd are growing −91.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF) generate?
The free cash flow of Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd is −¥14.2B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd (KKPCF) hold?
Kaken Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥41.1B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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