Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 14, 2026: fair value of Keros Therapeutics Inc $12.77, price $11.05, upside +15.6%, quality 94 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.55 – $70.48 · fair‑value band $8.60 – $20.21 · the $11.05 price screens below the $12.77 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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Keros Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes novel therapeutics to treat patients with disorders linked to dysfunctional signaling of the transforming growth factor-beta family of proteins in the United States.
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It develops rinvatercept, which acts as a ligand trap and inhibits the biological effects of myostatin and activin A in Phase 1 clinical trials for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis; and elritercept to target TGF-ß signaling pathways to address diseases that arise from ineffective hematopoiesis in Phase 3 clinical trials for Myelodysplastic Syndromes and Phase 2 clinical trials for Myelofibrosis.
The company has collaboration and license agreements with Hansoh (Shanghai) Healthtech Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize elritercept and licensed products containing elritercept; and Takeda Pharmaceuticals U.S.A., Inc. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize elritercept and certain derivative compounds.
Keros Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Lexington, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS) currently trades at $11.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.77, implying the stock looks roughly 13.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $103.03 per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the $11.05 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.24, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.60 (bear) to $20.21 (bull), the price of $11.05 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 94/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Keros Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $244M in FY2025 versus $20.1M in FY2021, a compound +86.7%/yr. Reported net income was $87.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $237M · P/S ratio 15.8 · EPS (TTM) $−3.22 · Net margin 35.7% · Return on equity −17.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.8% · Operating margin −656% · Free cash flow $106M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 16%, KROS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$8.60Fair Value $12.77Bull$20.21
Price $11.05 · Upside +15.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6,775.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+130.2%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.8%
’18
’19
’21
’22
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,866.3% (2020) → 28.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 607 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/8 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score94 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+15.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets25.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)35.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
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Is Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.77 versus a price of $11.05, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KROS?
Our model-based fair value for Keros Therapeutics Inc is $12.77 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.05.
What is the quality score of KROS?
Keros Therapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 94/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.77 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.60, optimistic scenario $20.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Keros Therapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.77, about +16% upside versus a price of $11.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.60, optimistic scenario $20.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Keros Therapeutics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +150.0 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KROS use?
Our models discount Keros Therapeutics Inc at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.12, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Keros Therapeutics Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Keros Therapeutics Inc grew +150.0 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Keros Therapeutics Inc (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 48.43 %: that much free cash flow Keros Therapeutics Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Keros Therapeutics Inc it is $12.77 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of $11.05. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Keros Therapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, KROS trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.05, fair value $12.77, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KROS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.77). For Keros Therapeutics Inc the two are $1.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Keros Therapeutics Inc worth?
The market values Keros Therapeutics Inc at about $237M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is $11.05; our models calculate a fair value of $12.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KROS?
Our models span a range for Keros Therapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $8.60, base $12.77, optimistic $20.21 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price $11.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Keros Therapeutics Inc (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity −17.2%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 94/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KROS from its 52-week high?
Keros Therapeutics Inc trades at $11.05, about 49% below its 52-week high of $21.84 and 12% above the low of $9.91 (as of Oct 14, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Keros Therapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Keros Therapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price $11.05, calculated fair value $12.77 (+16%), Quality Score 94/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KROS calculated?
We run Keros Therapeutics Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Keros Therapeutics Inc currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
The closing price on Oct 14, 2026 was $11.05. Our model-based fair value is $12.77, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Keros Therapeutics Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($8.60 to $20.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Keros Therapeutics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
The market capitalisation of Keros Therapeutics Inc is $237M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Keros Therapeutics Inc is 15.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
Earnings per share at Keros Therapeutics Inc are $−3.22. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
The net margin of Keros Therapeutics Inc is 35.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Keros Therapeutics Inc is −17.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Keros Therapeutics Inc is −23.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS)?
The operating margin of Keros Therapeutics Inc is −656% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much net cash does Keros Therapeutics Inc (KROS) hold?
Keros Therapeutics Inc holds more cash than debt, $271M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 13, 2026