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Lloyds Banking Group (LLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lloyds Banking Group €0.88, price €1.22, upside -27.7%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · DE · Home United Kingdom · ISIN GB0008706128

LB Broad data Sep 29, 2026

Lloyds Banking Group

LLD · XETRA

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value €0.8800 · Overvalued (−27.7%)
!Quality 42/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +27.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 26.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!3.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Wide moat 66/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€1.37 €0.3628 Fair Value €0.8800 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.3628 – €1.37 · fair‑value band €0.7700 – €1.29 · the €1.22 price screens above the €0.8800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Lloyds Banking Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking and financial products and services for retail and commercial customers in the United Kingdom. It operates in three segments: Retail; Commercial Banking; and Insurance, Pensions and Investments.

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Lloyds Banking Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides a range of banking and financial products and services for retail and commercial customers in the United Kingdom. It operates in three segments: Retail; Commercial Banking; and Insurance, Pensions and Investments. The Retail segment offers a range of financial service products, including current accounts, savings, mortgages, credit cards, unsecured loans, motor finance, and leasing solutions to personal customers. Its Commercial Banking segment provides lending, transactional banking, working capital management, debt financing, and risk management services to small and medium businesses, corporates, and institutions. The Insurance, Pensions and Investments segment offers insurance, investment, and pension management products and services. It also provides life assurance; and digital banking services. The company offers its products and services under the Lloyds Bank, Halifax, Bank of Scotland, Scottish Widows, MBNA, Schroders Personal Wealth, Black Horse, Lex Autolease, Birmingham Midshires, LDC, AMC, Embark Group, Lloyds Living, Cavendish Online, Tusker, and HGP brands. The company was formerly known as Lloyds TSB Group plc and changed its name to Lloyds Banking Group plc in January 2009. Lloyds Banking Group plc was founded in 1695 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Lloyds Banking Group (LLD) currently trades at €1.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.8800, 27.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €1.19 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €1.22 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.5700, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €0.7700 (bear) to €1.29 (bull), the price of €1.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Lloyds Banking Group reported revenue of £63.8B in FY2025 versus £18.7B in FY2021, a compound +35.9%/yr. Reported net income was £4.7B in FY2025, compounding −5.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €83.5B · P/E ratio 13.5 · P/S ratio 0.99 · EPS (TTM) €0.0900 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 7.3% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −28%, LLD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €0.7700 Fair Value €0.8800 Bull €1.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0401 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income €0.7700 €0.8800 €1.16 76
Gordon GGM €0.3700 €0.7700 €1.23 66
DDM Multi-Stage €0.3700 €0.6500 €0.8100 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.3700 €0.7700 €1.23 66
DDM Multi-Stage €0.3700 €0.6500 €0.8100 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €0.9200 €1.23 €1.53 63
P/B Multiple €0.8900 €1.19 €1.49 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.4200 €0.5700 €0.8500 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €0.7700 €0.8800 €1.16 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 20
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 44
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+69.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.6% vs 5.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

LLD screens overvalued: fair value 28% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −16.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10.8% · Above median
Return on assets 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 26.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 41.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.02× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.12× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.65× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 13.3× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.19× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €79.53 €77.12 −3%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.05 $6.82 −38%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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Lloyds Banking Group · Fair Value
€0.8800 −28%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lloyds Banking Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LLD

Frequently asked questions

Is Lloyds Banking Group (LLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.8800 versus a price of €1.22, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LLD?
Our model-based fair value for Lloyds Banking Group is €0.8800 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.22.
What is the quality score of LLD?
Lloyds Banking Group has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.8800 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.7700, optimistic scenario €1.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lloyds Banking Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.8800, about −28% upside versus a price of €1.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.7700, optimistic scenario €1.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Lloyds Banking Group pay a dividend?
Lloyds Banking Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lloyds Banking Group it is €0.8800 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €1.22. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lloyds Banking Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, LLD trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.22, fair value €0.8800, a gap of about −28% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.8800). For Lloyds Banking Group the two are €0.3375 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lloyds Banking Group worth?
The market values Lloyds Banking Group at about €83.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €1.22; our models calculate a fair value of €0.8800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LLD?
Our models span a range for Lloyds Banking Group: cautious scenario €0.7700, base €0.8800, optimistic €1.29 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €1.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LLD?
Lloyds Banking Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €0.8800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.1, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 13.3.
What is the PEG ratio of LLD?
The PEG ratio of Lloyds Banking Group is 1.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lloyds Banking Group (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.8%, debt of 2.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LLD from its 52-week high?
Lloyds Banking Group trades at €1.22, about 11% below its 52-week high of €1.37 and 30% above the low of €0.9392 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.8800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lloyds Banking Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lloyds Banking Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €1.22, calculated fair value €0.8800 (−28%), Quality Score 42/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LLD calculated?
We run Lloyds Banking Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.8800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lloyds Banking Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €1.22. Our model-based fair value is €0.8800, about −28% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lloyds Banking Group right now?
Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD) come from?
Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group grew +7.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.9 %, EBIT margin −1.4 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Lloyds Banking Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
The market capitalisation of Lloyds Banking Group is €83.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lloyds Banking Group is 0.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group are €0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
The dividend yield of Lloyds Banking Group is 3.0% (payout 41.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
The net margin of Lloyds Banking Group is 7.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lloyds Banking Group is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lloyds Banking Group is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
The operating margin of Lloyds Banking Group is 41.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
Revenue at Lloyds Banking Group is growing +11.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +45.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lloyds Banking Group (LLD)?
Earnings per share at Lloyds Banking Group are growing +44.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lloyds Banking Group (LLD) generate?
The free cash flow of Lloyds Banking Group is −£8.4B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lloyds Banking Group (LLD) carry?
The net debt of Lloyds Banking Group is £38.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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