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Lipocine Inc (LPCN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lipocine Inc stock $1.51, price $1.72, that is 12.2% below the price, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

LI Lipocine Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Lipocine Inc

LPCN · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 12% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +58.1 %/yr in USD)
Insiders bought $82,174 (6M)
Revenue last quarter 70% below a year ago.
Fair value $1.51 · Overvalued
Quality 28/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/8)
Narrow moat 5/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$31.45 $1.44 Fair Value $1.51 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.44 – $31.45 · fair‑value band $1.14 – $1.89 · the $1.72 price screens above the $1.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Lipocine Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the research and development for the delivery of drugs using its proprietary delivery technology. The company offers TLANDO, an oral testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) comprising testosterone undecanoate.

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It also develops LPCN 1154 (BRLIZIO), an oral neuro-steroid in a Phase 3 pivotal trial for postpartum depression; LPCN 1148, a prodrug of testosterone and testosterone laurate that has completed a Phase 2 trial for the management of decompensated cirrhosis; LPCN 1107, an oral hydroxy progesterone caproate product that has completed a Phase 2 trial for the prevention of recurrent preterm birth; LPCN 1144, an oral prodrug of bioidentical testosterone that has completed a Phase 2 trial for pre-cirrhotic non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; and LPCN 2401, an oral formulation comprising a proprietary anabolic androgen receptor agonist that is in a Phase 2 trial to manage incretin mimetic use in obesity management.

In addition, the company is developing LPCN 2201, an oral brexanolone formulation that has completed a Phase 1 trial for major depressive disorders; LPCN 2203, an oral candidate that has completed a Phase 1 trial for management of essential tremor; and LPCN 2101, a neuroactive steroids (NAS) candidate that has completed a Phase 1 trial for drug-resistant epilepsy and women with epilepsy.

The company's products focus on neurological and psychiatric central nervous system (CNS) disorders, liver disease, and hormone supplementation in the United States.

It has a collaboration with Verity Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to develop and commercialize TLANDO; and TLANDO XR (LPCN 1111), a once-daily oral product candidate that has completed a Phase 2 trial for testosterone replacement therapy.

Lipocine Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Stock analysis

Lipocine Inc (LPCN) currently trades at $1.72, while our estimate is $1.51, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $1.14 (bear) to $1.89 (bull), the price of $1.72 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Lipocine Inc reported revenue of $2.0M in FY2025 versus $16.1M in FY2021, a compound −40.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $19.0M Micro · P/S ratio 11.1 · EPS (TTM) $−1.32 · Return on equity −60.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −34.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −1,495% · Revenue (TTM) $1.6M · Revenue growth (YoY) −69.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 85% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −12%, LPCN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $1.14 Fair Value $1.51 Bull $1.89
Price $1.72 · Downside -12.2%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 11
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 71
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 11
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 2
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $82,174, on Sep 30, 2026.

  • BuyJohn W. HiguchiDirector4× since Apr 6, 2026: 200,568 shares, avg. $2.07$415,524Sep 30, 2026
  • BuyMahesh Patel V.Chief Executive Officer, Director2× since Apr 2, 2026: 50,000 shares, avg. $2.03$101,250Apr 6, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 9, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 25/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−82.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+58.1%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−44,990,660,000.0% (2020) → −524.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

LPCN screens overvalued: fair value 12% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 867 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −12.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −56.6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −69.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.32× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 12.14× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)17 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 19

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $919.96 $1,275 +39% vs LPCN
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,510,000 KRW 1,661,000 KRW +10% vs LPCN
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $550.87 $601.80 +9% vs LPCN
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,661 kr 3,880 +6% vs LPCN
argenx SE ARGX $962.27 $908.40 −6% vs LPCN
CSL Limited CSL A$200.73 A$181.40 −10% vs LPCN
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$248.20 HK$152.80 −38% vs LPCN
Roivant Sciences Ltd ROIV $40.67 $17.39 −57% vs LPCN
Celltrion, Inc 068270 210,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −64% vs LPCN
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $68.77 $19.01 −72% vs LPCN

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Lipocine Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lipocine Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LPCN

Frequently asked questions

Is Lipocine Inc (LPCN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $1.51 versus a price of $1.72, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LPCN?
Our estimate for Lipocine Inc is $1.51 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.72.
What is the quality score of LPCN?
Lipocine Inc has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $1.51 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $1.14, optimistic scenario $1.89. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Lipocine Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $1.51, about 12% lower versus a price of $1.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.14, optimistic scenario $1.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
Lipocine Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lipocine Inc it is $1.51 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $1.72.
Is Lipocine Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, LPCN trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.72, fair value $1.51, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LPCN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.51). For Lipocine Inc the two are $0.2100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lipocine Inc worth?
The market values Lipocine Inc at about $19.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $1.72; our models calculate a fair value of $1.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LPCN?
Our models span a range for Lipocine Inc: cautious scenario $1.14, base $1.51, optimistic $1.89 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $1.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lipocine Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −60.9%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LPCN from its 52-week high?
Lipocine Inc trades at $1.72, about 85% below its 52-week high of $11.26 and 19% above the low of $1.44 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lipocine Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lipocine Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $1.72, calculated fair value $1.51 (−12%), Quality Score 28/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Lipocine Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $1.72. Our estimate is $1.51, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lipocine Inc right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Lipocine Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
The market capitalisation of Lipocine Inc is $19.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lipocine Inc is 11.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
Earnings per share at Lipocine Inc are $−1.32. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lipocine Inc is −60.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lipocine Inc is −34.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
The operating margin of Lipocine Inc is −1,495% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lipocine Inc (LPCN)?
Revenue at Lipocine Inc is growing −69.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +58.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Lipocine Inc (LPCN) generate?
The free cash flow of Lipocine Inc is −$9.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lipocine Inc (LPCN) hold?
Lipocine Inc holds more cash than debt, $5.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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