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Open Lending Corp (LPRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Aug 7, 2026: fair value of Open Lending Corp $0.96, price $3.14, upside -69.4%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US68373J1043

OL Open Lending Corp logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Open Lending Corp

LPRO · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $0.9600 · Strongly overvalued (−69.4%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.0% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/11)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$43.09 $0.8339 Fair Value $0.9600 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.8339 – $43.09 · fair‑value band $0.9200 – $1.01 · the $3.14 price screens above the $0.9600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Open Lending Corporation provides lending enablement and risk analytics solutions to credit unions, regional banks, finance companies, and captive finance companies of automakers in the United States.

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Open Lending Corporation provides lending enablement and risk analytics solutions to credit unions, regional banks, finance companies, and captive finance companies of automakers in the United States. The company offers lenders protection platform (LPP), which is a cloud-based automotive lending enablement platform that provides loan analytics solutions and automated issuance of credit default insurance with third-party insurance providers. Its LPP products include loan analytics, risk-based loan pricing, risk modeling, and automated decision technology for automotive lenders. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

Stock analysis

Open Lending Corp (LPRO) currently trades at $3.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9600, 69.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $1.27 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $3.14 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.4200, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.9200 (bear) to $1.01 (bull), the price of $3.14 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Open Lending Corp reported revenue of $93.2M in FY2025 versus $216M in FY2021, a compound −18.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $372M · P/E ex one-offs 80.9 · P/S ratio 4.12 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0500 · Net margin −4.5% · Return on equity −6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2% · Operating margin −3.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 162% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −69%, LPRO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.9200 Fair Value $0.9600 Bull $1.01
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $0.9700 $1.02 $1.06 74
ROIC Compounder $0.9900 $1.05 $1.12 72
EV/EBITDA $1.14 $1.32 $1.49 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV $0.9700 $1.02 $1.06 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $1.06 $1.21 $1.37 66
EV/EBITDA $1.14 $1.32 $1.49 67
EV/Revenue $1.07 $1.27 $1.46 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3200 $0.4200 $0.6300 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $0.9900 $1.05 $1.12 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 9
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 95
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 92
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−19.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
67.4% (2019) → 6.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

LPRO screens overvalued: fair value 69% below the price. Compare with Visa Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 329 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −69.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 1.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −6.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −3.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −16.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.40× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.97× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.17× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 59.9× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 53
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 48
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)30 · sector 59
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 65

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Visa Inc V $359.33 $221.29 −38%
Mastercard Incorporated MA $551.47 $359.54 −35%
American Express Company AXP $304.10 $208.54 −31%
Capital One Financial Corporation COF $193.07 $125.94 −35%
Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE ₹948.30 ₹1,100 +16%
PayPal Holdings PYPL $53.06 $104.12 +96%
Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN ₹994.10 ₹1,364 +37%
Affirm Holdings AFRM $67.21 $73.93 +10%
Synchrony Financial, SYF $71.52 $141.92 +98%
SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI $15.72 $5.53 −65%

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Open Lending Corp · Fair Value
$0.9600 −69%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Open Lending Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LPRO

Frequently asked questions

Is Open Lending Corp (LPRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.9600 versus the last price from Aug 7, 2026 of $3.14, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LPRO?
Our model-based fair value for Open Lending Corp is $0.9600 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 7, 2026): $3.14.
What is the quality score of LPRO?
Open Lending Corp has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.9600 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.9200, optimistic scenario $1.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Open Lending Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.9600, about −69% upside versus the last price from Aug 7, 2026 of $3.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.9200, optimistic scenario $1.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
Open Lending Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $89.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Open Lending Corp it is $0.9600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.14. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Open Lending Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LPRO trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.14, fair value $0.9600, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LPRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.9600). For Open Lending Corp the two are $2.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Open Lending Corp worth?
The market values Open Lending Corp at about $372M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.14; our models calculate a fair value of $0.9600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LPRO?
Our models span a range for Open Lending Corp: cautious scenario $0.9200, base $0.9600, optimistic $1.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Open Lending Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −6.9%, debt of 1.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LPRO from its 52-week high?
Open Lending Corp trades at $3.14, at its 52-week high of $3.15 and 162% above the low of $1.20 (as of Aug 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.9600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Open Lending Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Open Lending Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.14, calculated fair value $0.9600 (−69%), Quality Score 54/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LPRO calculated?
We run Open Lending Corp through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.9600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Open Lending Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 7, 2026 and stands at $3.14. Our model-based fair value is $0.9600, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Open Lending Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($0.9200 to $1.01), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Open Lending Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
The market capitalisation of Open Lending Corp is $372M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Open Lending Corp (LPRO) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Open Lending Corp is 80.9 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Open Lending Corp is 4.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
Earnings per share at Open Lending Corp are $−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
The net margin of Open Lending Corp is −4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Open Lending Corp is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Open Lending Corp is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
The operating margin of Open Lending Corp is −3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
Revenue at Open Lending Corp is growing −16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −19.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Open Lending Corp (LPRO)?
Earnings per share at Open Lending Corp are growing −56.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Open Lending Corp (LPRO) generate?
The free cash flow of Open Lending Corp is −$3.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Open Lending Corp (LPRO) hold?
Open Lending Corp holds more cash than debt, $88.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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