Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $368M
Open Lending Corporation
LPRO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price +1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.8339 – $43.09 · fair‑value band $1.21 – $1.60 · the $3.14 price screens above the $1.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) currently trades at $3.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.41, implying the stock looks roughly 55.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Open Lending Corporation generated revenue of $89.3M at a net margin of -6.0%. Revenue declined 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $88.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.21 (bear case) to $1.60 (bull case); at $3.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 167% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at -55%, LPRO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($1.27) versus Asset-Based ($0.4200). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Open Lending Corporation provides lending enablement and risk analytics solutions to credit unions, regional banks, finance companies, and captive finance companies of automakers in the United States.
Full company description
Open Lending Corporation provides lending enablement and risk analytics solutions to credit unions, regional banks, finance companies, and captive finance companies of automakers in the United States. The company offers lenders protection platform (LPP), which is a cloud-based automotive lending enablement platform that provides loan analytics solutions and automated issuance of credit default insurance with third-party insurance providers. Its LPP products include loan analytics, risk-based loan pricing, risk modeling, and automated decision technology for automotive lenders. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Open Lending Corporation reported revenue of $93.2M in FY2025 versus $216M in FY2021, a compound −18.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$4.2M in FY2025.
LPRO screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Halper Sadeh LLC is Investigating Whether LPRO, EQR, LEG, MDV are Obtaining Fair Deals for their Shareholders
- Halper Sadeh LLC is Investigating Whether APGE, LPRO, HUN, AVNS are Obtaining Fair Deals for their Shareholders
- $HAREHOLDER ALERT: The M&A Class Action Firm Continues to Investigate the Merger—LPRO, HUN, CCRN, and AVNS
- BRODSKY & SMITH SHAREHOLDER UPDATE: Notifying Investors of the Following Investigations: AstroNova, Inc. (Nasdaq – ALOT), Open Lending C
Peer Group
Credit Services · 331 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $348.97 | $204.19 | -41% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $537.70 | $221.87 | -59% |
| American Express Company AXP | $358.44 | $206.40 | -42% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,056 | ₹397.61 | -62% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,024 | ₹553.83 | -46% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,808 | ₹796.52 | -56% |
| Tata Capital Limited TATACAP | ₹360.60 | ₹229.85 | -36% |
| Power Finance Corporation PFC | ₹405.10 | ₹810.20 | +100% |
| Muthoot Finance Limited MUTHOOTFIN | ₹3,129 | ₹3,463 | +11% |
| Indian Railway Finance Corporation IRFC | ₹88.41 | ₹69.72 | -21% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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