Luna Innovations Incorporated (LUNA) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $52.0M

Below-average quality, screening 22% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• A fairly wide model range ($0.9900 to $2.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
• Our model range runs from $0.9900 (bear) to $2.08 (bull), base $1.54. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 38/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.3000 – $12.79 · fair‑value band $0.9900 – $2.08 · the $1.26 price screens below the $1.54 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Luna Innovations Incorporated (LUNA) currently trades at $1.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.54, implying the stock looks roughly 22.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Luna Innovations Incorporated generated revenue of $117M at a net margin of -1.8%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.2%. Net debt stands at $22.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.9900 (bear case) to $2.08 (bull case); at $1.26, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 200% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 22%, LUNA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($1.80) versus Dividend Discount ($0.8100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Luna Innovations Incorporated provides fiber optic test, measurement, and control products worldwide. The company offers test and measurement equipment for fiber optic components and sub-assemblies; polarization control products, including components, modules, and instruments to measure, manage, and control polarization and group delay in fiber optic …

Full company description

Luna Innovations Incorporated provides fiber optic test, measurement, and control products worldwide. The company offers test and measurement equipment for fiber optic components and sub-assemblies; polarization control products, including components, modules, and instruments to measure, manage, and control polarization and group delay in fiber optic networks; tunable lasers; and single frequency lasers. It also provides ODiSI sensing solution, which provides distributed strain and temperature measurements; distributed temperature sensing system; hyperion sensing products; Terahertz Sensing Systems that provide precise single and multi-layer thickness, density, basis weight, and caliper thickness measurements; and distributed acoustic sensing products. The company markets its products to telecommunications companies, defense agencies, government system integrators, researchers, original equipment manufacturers, distributors, testing labs, and strategic partners directly, as well as through manufacturer representative organizations, partner and distribution channels, technical sales engineers, value added resellers, and independent sales representatives. Luna Innovations Incorporated was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Roanoke, Virginia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2019 – FY2023 · reported fiscal years

Luna Innovations Incorporated reported revenue of $117M in FY2023 versus $70.5M in FY2019, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.1M in FY2023.

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Peer Group

Scientific & Technical Instruments · 161 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Scientific & Technical Instruments median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.